565
FXUS66 KSGX 141700
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
900 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching low pressure system from the west will bring
occasional mostly light showers today. Rain will become heavy at
times late tonight into Saturday along with a chance of
thunderstorms, then gradually decreasing showers for Saturday
night and Sunday. There will be another round of showers around
Monday into Tuesday and possibly again around Thursday or Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.Morning Update...

Radar imagery shows light showers continuing to move in from
southwest this morning as a shield of clouds is seen across the
region on satellite. Some spots in our area have received over one
quarter of an inch since last night. Hi-res models continue to
show intermittent light to locally moderate showers. Model
guidance is in better agreement on the onset timing of the heavier
and more persistent rain activity starting sometime around 9 PM
tonight. This wave of moisture will move in from south to north,
bringing moderate to locally heavier rain and isolated
thunderstorms through the night into the first half of Saturday
afternoon. Bands/ribbons of heavier precipitation will occur on
Saturday morning into the early afternoon, but there is lower
confidence in exactly where these set up. Whoever finds themselves
under these bands of precipitation, will see heavy rainfall in a
short amount of time. This time period will be associated with the
highest risk of flooding over our area. We continue to
communicate that this flood threat will be across all areas,
including the deserts! As we always preface, please do not drive
through flooded roads and remember to "Turn Around, Don`t Drown!"

As we meteorologists like to say, "the storm door has been
propped open." Forecast models and confidence is increasing that
another weather system will move through the area by Monday and
Tuesday, as well as an additional system that may approach our
region by later next week. Stay tuned and prepared by keeping
updated on the forecast and following local police, fire, and
emergency management officials on social media.

.Previous Discussion (352 AM Friday)...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A low pressure system centered off the central California coast
early this morning will continue to move slowly toward the south
through tonight, then move inland into southern California on
Saturday, moving more quickly inland for late Saturday night and
Sunday.

Satellite imagery shows a long feed of subtropical moisture from
the southwest being drawn northward into Santa Barbara and Ventura
Counties. To the east of this band of more significant moisture
and rainfall, there have been occasional light showers over
portions of southwestern California since Thursday evening. Most
areas that have received any measurable rainfall have received a
few hundredths of an inch to less than one-tenth with only a
couple or reports in the mountains to around one-qaurter inch.

Occasional light showers are expected to continue today into this
evening. Rain will become heavy at times late tonight with the
heaviest and most widespread rainfall expected from before dawn on
Saturday into early afternoon Saturday along with a chance of
thunderstorms.

South to southeast winds will begin to strengthen before dawn in
advance of the strong with gusts Saturday morning morning near the
coast to around 35 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
There is increasing model spread in the details over the eastern
Pacific into California for next week. The next low pressure
system from the northwest is expected to bring more showers some
time around Monday into Tuesday. There could be another round
later next week sometime around Thursday or Friday. These systems
are not expected to be as warm as the system for today and
Saturday with snow levels occasionally lowering to around 6000
feet next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific storm approaching from the west will bring occasional
mostly light showers today. As the storm moves closer, rain will
become heavy at times tonight with the heaviest and most
widespread rainfall expected from before dawn on Saturday into
early afternoon Saturday along with a chance of thunderstorms. As
the storm moves east, showers will gradually decrease for Saturday
night and Sunday.

Through Sunday, rainfall for Orange and southwestern San
Bernardino Counties is expected to range from around 2.5 inches
near the coast to 3 to 5 inches in the mountains. For San Diego
County, rainfall is expected to range from around 2 inches near
the coast to 2.5 to 3.5 inches in the mountains with locally
greater amounts. For the high desert, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is
expected with around 1 inch for the lower deserts. The snow level
will remain around 10000 feet through tonight, then lower to
around 6500 feet late Saturday night, then rising to around 7500
feet on Sunday.

These rainfall amounts along with the potential for periods of
higher intensity rainfall for late tonight into Saturday
afternoon could produce debris flows in burn areas, significant
ponding of water on roads and highways, and urban and small stream
flooding. The current forecast for the San Diego River has the
river at Fashion Valley rising to near monitor stage at 10 AM on
Saturday, sufficient to flood low-water crossings, and remaining
above that level into early afternoon Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
141700Z...Currently FEW-SCT below 1000 feet MSL and SCT-BKN around 4-
8 kft throughout the coastal basin. BKN-OVC around 10 kft area wide.
Mid-level BKN-OVC cloud bases to lower gradually to 3-5 kft by this
evening with occasional MVFR cigs. Additionally, SCT -SHRA continues
across the coastal basin and mtns through this evening.

Widespread RA for all areas pushing in from the southwest after 06Z.
This will be accompanied by widespread MVFR VIS, intermittent MVFR
CIGs, and increasing southerly winds through the coastal basin.
Conditions continue to deteriorate after 12Z as SCT +RA and TSRA
begin to move in. Intermittent IFR VIS (1-3SM) and lowered CIGs
(1000-2000 ft MSL) with any heavier precip. Southerly wind gusts
increasing to 20-30 kts through the coastal basin late Saturday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
A large low pressure system approaching the region today will move
through Saturday and Sunday. Breezy winds from the south 10-15 knots
with gusts near 20 knots today will strengthen early Saturday
morning to 15-25 knots, frequent gusts to 30 kts with occasional
gusts around 35 kts. This will bring steep, mixed seas 5-8 feet
throughout the coastal waters. See the Small Craft Advisory for
more. Winds become westerly mid-afternoon Saturday and then
gradually weaken that evening, though remain breezy through the
weekend.

The system will also bring showers over the waters through the
weekend, and a chance of thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday
night. Additionally, occasional heavy rain Saturday could reduce
visibility. A Marine Weather Statement continues for thunderstorm
chances Friday afternoon through late Saturday and contains more
details.

&&

.BEACHES...
West swell 4-5 feet will combine with a south wind swell to create
elevated surf 4-6 feet with local sets to 7 feet late this evening
through Saturday. Additionally, there is a chance (20-30%) for
thunderstorms this evening through Saturday.
&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for Apple
     and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Orange County Coastal
     Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-
     San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County
     Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near
     Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

UPDATE...APR
PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...17
AVIATION/MARINE...KW