Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
376 FXUS66 KSGX 012047 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 147 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will contribute to warmer weather through the weekend. A trough of low pressure will move into the West Coast by next week, leading to a subtle cooling trend across our area. This feature will also help low clouds to push further into the valleys each morning along with breezy west winds over the mountains and deserts. Dry weather will continue into later next week as warm weather is expected. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A weak area of low pressure to the south is contributing to light offshore this afternoon across the mountains and coastal foothills. Most areas will continue to see winds out of the NE/E gusting near 15-20 MPH, calming by the evening. Low clouds are starting to retreat from the beaches, but intermittent clouds will still be possible through the day in these areas. This low pressure feature will move over the region by Sunday. Southwesterly flow aloft from this will pull in moisture in the form of high clouds throughout the day. High pressure over the Desert Southwest will keep the marine layer fairly uniform over the next few days with low clouds and fog near the coast and far western valleys. High temperatures are expected to be around 5-10 degrees above normal again on Sunday. By Monday, high pressure over the region will begin to weaken as a trough of low pressure sets up in its wake across the Pacific Northwest. This will bring the start of a cooling trend across the region. Models have come into better agreement on how strong on how far south this system will go, most keeping its main energy well to the north. Though the system will be a ways away, it will continue to influence the weather with temperatures turning to near average across the region by Wednesday and Thursday. This will also help to spread greater cloud coverage across the valleys west of the mountains each morning as the marine layer deepens. Westerly winds will also increase as the system moves by to the north, but confidence is low on exact speeds. Ensemble models for any precipitation are close to zero, so dry weather looks to continue. After the low pressure system passes, models are in fair agreement that a ridge of high pressure to the south will regain strength by later next week. This will bring warmer weather back into the picture with low clouds and fog becoming more confined to the coast and far western valleys. && .AVIATION... 012045Z...Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds have largely cleared out to the waters this afternoon with only a few patches near the coast. The low clouds will push back ashore after 00-01z Sunday, filling back in through 15 miles inland. Bases will initially be around 1000- 1500ft MSL but should settle down to 600-900ft MSL after 06z Sunday. As with this morning, VIS along the coast should only fall to 4-6SM or higher with higher coastal terrain and inland valleys seeing VIS closer to 1-3SM, locally under 1SM at times. 30% chance of LIFR CIGs/FG reaching KONT between 09-16z Sunday. Clouds will likely be faster to clear out compared to this morning, with full clearing expected by 16-17z Sunday. Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine concerns through Thursday. && .BEACHES... Long period (19-21 sec) swell from the southwest (200 degrees) today, prevailing into Sunday, bringing elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet with locally higher sets on southwest facing beaches. Surf will gradually fall Sunday into Monday.&& .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan