291
FXUS66 KSGX 242031
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
131 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler conditions today. For afternoons and evenings this weekend,
periods of gusty westerly winds will occur over the mountains and
into the deserts. Gradual warming with night and morning low clouds
and fog each day for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Mostly clear skies are being observed as of 1 PM. Local areas of
clouds still remain along portions of the coast and western valleys.
The marine layer is expected to fill in the coastal basin overnight,
with patchy drizzle possible Sunday morning. A few degrees of
warming is expected for Sunday, but highs will stay below normal for
this time of year.

A trough passing through central California will enhance the onshore
pressure gradient and lower heights aloft this weekend. In addition
to cooler conditions and a deeper marine layer, an increase in
westerly winds is expected on the desert mountain slopes and into
the deserts. Winds will peak in strength each afternoon and evening.
Peak gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected, with local gusts up to 55
mph through the San Gorgonio Pass into northern portions of the
Coachella Valley.

A transient ridge will bring warmer conditions and weaker winds
Monday. Conditions will warm an additional 3 to 6 degrees from
Sunday, bringing high temperatures to just below the seasonal
average. The ridge will quickly be replaced by a passing upper level
low on Tuesday. The low is not expected to have much of an impact on
temperatures, with most ensemble guidance indicating conditions will
continue to warm into the middle of the week.

By Wednesday, the majority of ensembles indicate a building ridge
over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level closed somewhere over
Southern California or Northern Baja. The tracks of closed lows are
notoriously difficult to pin down, introducing a bit of uncertainty
in the forecast for the end of the upcoming week. Most ensemble
solutions currently indicate a continued warming into next weekend
with dry conditions. Guidance is indicating the peak of the warming
trend will be either Friday or Saturday. For Friday, NBM chances of
high temperatures exceeding 95 degrees are 20 percent in the western
portion of the Inland Empire, and up to 70 percent in the eastern
portion. Chances of the low desert exceeding 105 degrees is near 50
percent Friday. Official forecast closely follows the NBM for the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
222030Z...Coasts/Valleys...Mostly clear skies prevail with the
exception of FEW-SCT and locally BKN low clouds based 2500-3500ft
along the coasts. Low clouds fill back in and push ashore again
tonight, bringing CIGs back to the coastal TAF sites
(KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA) by 00-03z and through the Inland Empire (KONT/KSBD)
by 09-12z with cloud bases persisting near 2000-2500ft. Clouds
scatter back out by 17-18z Sunday morning.

Mountains/Deserts...Strong west winds over mountains, passes and
desert slopes with gusts locally to 35-50 kts expected this
afternoon and evening. Mod up/downdrafts in lee of mountains with
patchy BLDU possible, locally reducing VIS down to 3SM at times.
Winds slowly weaken into Sunday morning. Otherwise, clear skies and
VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Long period (17-18 seconds) south-southwest swell increases
gradually through Sunday, with surf of 4-6 feet and sets up to 7
feet possible through Monday with a high rip current risk. Surf
begins to subside on Tuesday. A Beach Hazard Statement remains in
effect through Monday night and contains more details.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for San Gorgonio Pass near
     Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Munyan