Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
879
FNUS73 KSGF 111449
FWSSGF
Spot Forecast for Busiek Purple Trail Burn Unit...MO Dept of Conservation
National Weather Service Springfield MO
949 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on March 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at 1-800-762-4363, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Confidence is high that Thursday afternoon RH values will drop below 40 percent however
not as confident if they will drop below 30 percent. Skies will become mostly clear through the day. Winds will remain out of the south however
there could be a slight southeast component early in the day. Speeds do look to remain light however, around 10mph. Winds will vary somewhat in valleys
and southern facing slopes with some funneling perhaps creating higher speeds component.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 79.
RH..................92 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 1 mph at
ignition...otherwise Light winds.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...600 meters AGL at ignition...otherwise 183-1372
meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 9 mph shifting to the south 8 to
14 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 6 meters/second.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /4500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
/54100 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27 20 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............53 57 61 66 70 74 77 79 79 78
RH..............92 87 78 66 57 50 44 41 39 40
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.6 6 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 3.9 4.5 4.5 3.5
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.1
Transp wind dir.W SW SW SW S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.8 9 9 8 8 8 10 13 14 14
Trans wind dir..W SW SW SW S S S S S S
Trans spd (m/s).4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 7 10 13 17 22 35 49 54 42
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 53.
RH..................Max 88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...152-610 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 5 to 7 meters/second.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (22200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4700 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........16 20 25 31 36 37 37 38 32 25 19 17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............77 74 71 68 65 63 61 60 58 57 56 55
RH..............42 46 51 57 63 67 71 75 79 80 83 88
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 12 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 17
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Mix hgt (km)....0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.S SE SE S S S S S S S SE SE
Transp wind spd.13 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15
Trans wind dir..S SE SE S S S S S S S SE SE
Trans spd (m/s).6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..22 8 5 6 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Chance of rain showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Temperature.........Max 78.
RH..................Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 15 mph with gusts to
around 30 mph shifting to the south 17 to 20
mph with gusts to around 36 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...213-2408 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 22 mph increasing to 38 to 43 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 7 to 19 meters/second decreasing to 8 to
12 meters/second early in the morning, then
increasing to 15 to 18 meters/second early in
the afternoon increasing to around 19
meters/second late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (66600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (233000
knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.11 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15 13 11 9 7 13 20 26 23 20 17 25
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 50 50 50
Temp............54 54 56 60 64 68 72 75 77 78 77 74
RH..............88 86 79 72 63 52 46 40 37 36 37 41
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..8 9 10 12 14 16 18 20 21 22 22 20
20 FT wind gust.18 20 22 25 28 30 32 33 35 36 36 35
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.9 4.4 5.8 6.7 7.3 7.9 M
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 M
Transp wind dir.SE SE S S S S S S S S S M
Transp wind spd.15 16 17 18 22 26 33 38 40 41 43 M
Trans wind dir..SE SE S S S S S S S S S M
Trans spd (m/s).7 7 8 8 10 12 15 17 18 18 19 M
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 11 13 18 32 67 127 191 233 264 291 M
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR GD VGD EXL EXL EXL EXL M
$$
Forecaster...Burchfield
Requested by...District Supervisor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2505869.0/SGF
.DELDT 03/11/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Paul.johnson@mdc.mo.gov