036
FGUS64 KTUA 141512
ESGSGF

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
909 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  11/14/2024 - 02/12/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Spring River
CHTM7            10.0   14.0   20.0     7   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
WCOM7            19.0   30.0   33.0    13   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
BXTK1            14.0   22.0   30.0    10   19   <5    5   <5   <5

:Shoal Creek
JOPM7            11.5   16.0   18.0     6    8   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Elk River
TIFM7            15.0   20.0   25.0    <5   18   <5    5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 1114 Z DH12 /DC202411141509/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  11/14/2024 - 02/12/2025
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Spring River
CHTM7    2.9/   3.1/   3.5/   4.6/   6.3/   8.8/  11.6
WCOM7    2.7/   4.5/   6.4/  10.3/  14.4/  20.6/  23.5
BXTK1    3.7/   4.4/   5.3/   6.8/   9.5/  14.3/  20.7

:Shoal Creek
JOPM7    2.3/   2.7/   3.4/   4.6/   6.1/   8.9/  12.5

:Elk River
TIFM7    3.7/   4.1/   4.8/   6.1/   8.3/  13.3/  14.4

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$