Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
699
FGUS73 KSGF 132106
ESFSGF
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC011-021-161200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Springfield MO
3:00 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the larger
river systems in the National Weather Service Springfield, Missouri
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). This includes the Spring, Osage, Sac,
Gasconade, James, Current, and Elk River Basins.
Near normal to slightly below normal flood potential is expected
across the Springfield HSA. Springtime flooding is driven by typical
thunderstorm activity. Details on the chances for minor, moderate,
and major flooding for area river forecast points are given in the
outlook tables below.
Summary of Recent Conditions:
Precipitation from December-January was below normal across northwest
portions of the HSA and above normal across far southeast portions
of the HSA. Elsewhere, near normal precipitation occurred. Soil moisture
is generally below normal except across the far southeast portions of the
HSA where above normal conditions are found. Normal streamflow conditions
for the month of January were generally observed across most of the HSA.
Exceptions to this include pockets of below normal streamflow conditions
across portions of the Elk River, Pomme De Terre, and Niangua River basins.
Currently, nearly 60% of the HSA is classified as abnormally dry or in
Moderate Drought (D1). These dry conditions generally extend across
the western HSA. This is an improvement from early December where
65% of the HSA was classified as abnormally dry or in Moderate
Drought (D1).
Outlook:
Seasonal outlooks through the end of April show equal chances for above,
below, or near normal temperatures and slightly elevated chances for above
normal precipitation across most of the HSA. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook
calls for improvement in drought conditions across the HSA.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 53 50 42 42 <5 <5
Horton 41.0 45.0 50.0 : 84 82 19 26 <5 <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott 38.0 42.0 43.0 : 16 26 6 7 <5 6
Nevada 20.0 26.0 31.0 : 68 79 33 43 10 11
:Osage River
Taberville 23.0 34.0 46.0 : 45 51 8 9 <5 <5
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills 16.0 19.0 28.0 : 67 64 53 57 13 13
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen 21.0 26.0 30.0 : 26 27 17 20 9 9
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville 7.0 14.0 20.0 : 43 50 8 9 <5 <5
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood 8.0 15.0 23.0 : 74 80 29 36 8 8
:Gasconade River
Jerome 15.0 25.0 30.0 : 41 54 11 24 8 8
:Spring River
Carthage 10.0 14.0 20.0 : 28 35 9 11 <5 <5
Waco 19.0 30.0 33.0 : 32 35 <5 <5 <5 <5
Baxter Springs 14.0 22.0 30.0 : 31 34 11 13 <5 <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin 11.5 16.0 18.0 : 8 11 5 5 <5 <5
:Elk River
Tiff City 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 13 31 6 10 <5 <5
:Current River
Powder Mill 8.0 25.0 40.0 : 40 71 5 10 <5 <5
:Jacks Fork River
Alley Spring 9.0 12.0 16.0 : 22 28 8 11 <5 7
Eminence 12.0 15.0 20.0 : 8 14 <5 9 <5 <5
:James River
Galena 15.0 25.0 31.0 : 23 40 8 19 <5 14
Boaz 10.0 18.0 24.0 : 20 57 7 19 <5 11
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton 12.2 13.9 16.7 23.2 27.0 27.9 29.0
Horton 40.0 40.5 41.9 43.2 44.2 46.2 48.6
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott 12.9 15.2 19.8 28.7 34.4 40.6 42.5
Nevada 9.0 11.0 15.6 22.9 27.2 30.9 36.3
:Osage River
Taberville 14.6 15.7 19.4 22.2 26.7 31.1 37.3
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills 7.9 8.6 12.4 19.3 24.0 28.0 30.5
:Spring River
Carthage 3.7 4.0 4.8 7.2 10.5 14.0 17.0
Waco 5.2 6.5 10.0 13.5 21.3 25.9 27.3
Baxter Springs 5.8 6.2 7.1 9.4 15.5 22.6 24.3
:Shoal Creek
Joplin 2.4 3.0 4.1 5.4 7.6 9.9 16.2
:Elk River
Tiff City 4.4 4.8 6.0 7.9 11.3 16.1 21.0
:Current River
Powder Mill 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 12.7 20.4 25.4
:Jacks Fork River
Alley Spring 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 8.8 11.7 13.0
Eminence 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 8.1 11.5 13.5
:James River
Galena 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 13.8 21.6 29.9
Boaz 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 7.7 14.3 19.7
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7
Horton 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8
Nevada 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
:Osage River
Taberville 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.0 9.0 8.9
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined.
Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued Thursday February 27, 2025
$$