451
FXUS63 KSGF 110537
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1237 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) on
  Wednesday south of I-44. Not everyone will see rain.

- Watching a late-week system for severe storm potential.

- The late-week system will also bring the threat of strong non-
  thunderstorm winds, which could increase fire danger on
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Deep ridging is building into the area, and with clear skies and
southwesterly winds, we will warm up well above normal into the 70s
today. It`ll be a little breezy especially west of Springfield, and
combined with the very low humidity, we do have critical fire danger
today in southeast Kansas and west-central Missouri. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for these areas from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m. this
afternoon, though hotspots have been identified on satellite
throughout the morning. This is a testament to the very dry fuels
and erratic fire behavior that has been reported as of late. Fire
danger may continue into tomorrow and ramp up again later in the
week. See the Fire Weather section below for details.

Skies will be clear tonight, but that continued warm air advection
will keep overnight lows in the mid 40s up to 50. Ridging continues
Tuesday as does the warming trend, with highs in the upper 70s to
nearing 80. Though a bit reduced from today, there may still be some
fire danger tomorrow with continued dry and breezy conditions
(details below). Otherwise, it will be another warm, sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

A few clouds begin to filter in Tuesday night as a subtle shortwave
passes to the north. Lows will still be warm, in the mid 40s into
the low 50s. Winds will still be gusty overnight, especially in the
southwest, gusting up to 25 mph.

Clouds will gradually increase Wednesday as a low pressure system
approaches out of Oklahoma. It will primarily pass to our south,
though some scattered showers could swing up into the southern
portion of our area in the afternoon. This system has been trending
farther south, and the better moisture stays in Arkansas, so very
little rain is expected north of the southern border. An SPC general
thunder outline does extend nearly up to I-44; anything that manages
to develop may have lightning potential. Given that this system
should impact us very little, highs will continue the trend of being
in the mid 70s.

Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week with a return to
ridging, southerly flow, and sunny skies. Highs will approach and
possibly hit 80, which is 20+ degrees above normal for this time of
year. Confidence is high in these temperatures, with ensemble
spreads only a few degrees. See the Climate section for records
Thursday/Thursday night, as the forecast currently comes within a
few degrees of them.

A very deep, very dynamic system ejects out of the Rockies on Friday
and brings the potential for severe weather to the Ozarks. The
better ingredients are expected to set up southeast of the Ozarks,
however areas in our eastern CWA (south-central Missouri) will have
the best chance of seeing severe weather. Nearly the whole area is
outlined in a 15% chance (2 out of 5) with roughly the area east of
65 and south of 44 outlined in a 30% chance (3 out of 5) for severe
weather. This system looks capable of all hazards and nearly all
modes, with both supercell and QLCS structures possible. Since this
event seems to get started in our area and progress east, thinking
more discrete storm modes for us before things can line up and cause
widespread QLCS-type problems. But, a lot can change in 5 days,
including timing, placement, and probable hazards.

As this system approaches, so does its tight pressure gradient,
increasing wind speeds for us on Friday. As it stands now, sustained
wind speeds along and north of the Plateu may reach up to 30 mph
with gusts up to 45 mph, which may be enough for a Wind Advisory if
it verifies. The higher end of guidance brings us close to High Wind
Warning criteria, so we will have to watch trends closely. Relative
humidity looks to dip into the 30% range, which may be a problem for
fire danger given such high winds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Clear skies and VFR conditions on Tuesday. South-southwesterly
winds around 10 kts overnight, perhaps gusting a little bit
closer to the MO/KS border, thus inclusion of overnight gusts at
JLN. A southwest-to-northeast-oriented low-level jet streak
spreads from the central Plains towards the Great Lakes through
the Ozarks, causing some low-level wind shear concerns (40-45
kts) during the critical TAF period but lessening into the
morning as the jet streak moves out. Winds become gusty at all
TAF sites later this morning, with gusts 20-25 kts through the
evening hours. Winds calm again Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7PM for southeast Kansas including
Bourbon, Crawford, and Cherokee counties and west-central Missouri
including Vernon, Barton, Jasper, St. Clair, Benton, Morgan, Cedar,
and Hickory counties. Fuels are very dry (less than 9% moisture)
resulting in erratic and uncontrollable fire behavior even in light
winds.

Southwest winds are increasing this afternoon and will be highest
along and north of I-44, especially west of Hwy 65, 15-20 mph
sustained with gusts up to 30 mph. Winds generally remain less than
15 mph south of I-44 and to the east.

Precipitable water from the morning SGF sounding was 0.27", which is
around the 18th percentile in the sounding climatology. This sounds
more promising that yesterday evening`s measurement of 0.15", but
the atmosphere is still very dry, and we do expect to mix down the
drier air aloft quite efficiently today. As a result, relative
humidity will be dipping down into the 15-20% range area-wide this
afternoon, with the potential for even lower values down to 10%
depending on how warm we get and how deep we mix.

Humidity will be a tiny bit higher on Tuesday thanks to some meager
moisture return from the north, but will still dip down below 25%
especially south of I-44. Winds will be similar to today but the
strongest areas will be a but more widespread, concentrated in the
southwest. Wind direction turns more southerly through the evening.
Conditions are borderline for Red Flag particularly in the southwest
where winds are highest. Issuance may be warranted with subsequent
forecasts.

Looking ahead, winds look very strong Friday as the pressure
gradient tightens with the incoming system, with sustained winds up
to 30-35 mph (west of Springfield) and gusts up to 45 mph. Relative
humidity looks to stay in the 30-40% range, but with winds that high
and dry fuels, it may not be enough to prevent critical fire danger.
Expected humidity values for Friday could also decrease in the next
5 days.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025


Record High Temperatures:

March 13:
KVIH: 81/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 14:
KSGF: 59/2012

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Camden
FIRE WEATHER...Nelson
CLIMATE...Camden