764
FXUS63 KSGF 291737
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect until 1 PM today for the eastern Ozarks.
  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized heavier
  amounts of 4 to 7 inches are expected east of a Warsaw to West
  Plains line with an attendant risk for flash flooding.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms will move through the
  region today, tonight, and Monday ahead of a cold front, but
  there is still uncertainty in exact timing. Nevertheless,
  there is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for some of these storms to
  become severe.

- Some mild heat relief during the middle of next week following
  the frontal passage before long-range forecasts suggest heat
  and humidity returning for the 4th of July weekend and
  onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Current radar imagery depicts an arc of showers and
thunderstorms stretching from east Kansas, across to central
Missouri, and down into the eastern Ozarks/south-central
Missouri. The arc of showers is developing along the nose of a
20-25 kt low-level jet and associated speed convergence, warm
air advection, and isentropic upglide. The LLJ speed max is a
result of a weak and subtle mid-level shortwave vort max as
noted in water vapor imagery and RAP analysis over east KS/west
MO.


Flood Watch in effect until 1 PM today for the eastern Ozarks:

The arc of storms is the focus for the Flood Watch today.
Observed slow storm motions (and weak 5-10 kt Corfidi vectors if
any conglomerate cold pool MCS forms) will allow extended
periods of rain to fall along the arc of storms. Additionally,
a continued unseasonably moist air mass is in place. Both the
12Z and 00Z balloon launches today recorded 1.93" and 1.94"
PWATs, respectively. That is the record for June 28th according
to the SPC sounding climatology page, and above the 99th
percentile for this time of year. These profiles are
characterized by high relative humidity through the atmosphere,
deep warm cloud layers, and long skinny CAPE profiles. This will
allow rain rates to reach 1-2 in/hr with locally 2-3 in/hr
rates. Currently, 0.5-1.5 in/hr rates are being observed.

All these ingredients in place have led to the Flood Watch to be
put in place, as a flash flooding risk will be present under
any stronger slow-moving and/or training storms. Along the arc`s
location in central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, widespread
1 to 3 inches of rain are expected with HREF LPMM amounts
suggesting localized swaths up to 4 to 7 inches.


Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms today/tonight:

30-70% chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon and tonight with the highest chances across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks today, and west-central Missouri
tonight. While many places will see rain during these time
periods, there is quite a great deal of uncertainty in timing
and number of rounds. After the morning convection dissipates,
hi-res guidance suggests one or more MCSs moving through the
region, with varying solutions for timing and number of
systems.

For example, the 00Z HREF/MPAS suite of model members has some
evolving current storms across east KS as an MCS that moves
through this morning/early afternoon. Other members have an MCS
moving through during the afternoon/evening hours. And some
members have an MCS moving through late tonight. Some members
such as the NAM/HRRR/ARW display multiples of these solutions
(e.g., the NAM has an MCS this morning, this afternoon/evening,
AND late tonight, whereas the FV3 just has an MCS tonight).

Normally, with varying solutions in CAM simulated reflectivity,
relying on synoptics and mesoscale features becomes the
distinguisher in which solution has the greatest
chance/confidence. However, with the current pattern, there is
no big synoptic or mesoscale signal to latch onto, meaning each
round is equally likely will depend on storm-scale evolution and
environment modulation. Therefore, we can simply give a 30-70%
chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight, with the
potential for at at least one--but maybe more--thunderstorm
complexes moving through.


Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms today/tonight:

With any MCS that moves through the area, modeled MUCAPE varying
from 1000-2000 J/kg to 2000-3500 J/kg at any point during the
period--along with modest 15-25 kts of deep-layer shear--will
present the potential for some storms to become severe with 60
mph wind gusts as the main hazard. Heavy downpours and localized
flooding will also be possible with a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for
excessive rainfall expanded to include much of our forecast
area.


Temperatures are expected to be cooler in the lower to middle
80s where much of the rain occurs. This is most likely along and
east of a Osceola to West Plains line. West of there, where rain
chances are lower, highs could reach near 90 F with Heat Index
values in the upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday:

A somewhat more straightforward forecast exists Monday as a
surface cold front associated with a more energetic shortwave
moves through the region. The forcing of the cold front moving
through the very warm and moist air mass will do its job and
create showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon (50-70%). With
HREF mean suggesting 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 15-25 kts of
deep-layer shear associated with increased flow ahead of the
shortwave trough will present a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for
any storm to become severe Monday afternoon. The main hazard
will be wind gusts up to 60 mph within stronger multicell
clusters along the cold front.


Some mild heat relief middle of next week behind cold front:

A very relative "cooler" and "drier" air mass will filter into
our region behind the exit of the cold front to the south.
Models are coming into better agreement that the front will stay
well south of the area Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping rain
chances below 15% and allowing cooler temperatures in the middle
80s. That`s not much different from what we have been
experiencing, but the main kicker is dewpoints in the lower 60s
(finally below 70!). ECMWF ESATs take us from >99th percentile
moisture to 5th-10th percentile moisture for this time of year.
This should keep Heat Index values below 90 F Tuesday and
Wednesday. Lows this time period will also feel kinda refreshing
with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.


Heat and humidity returning for 4th of July Weekend and beyond:

The relief will not last long, unfortunately. Ridging is well-
forecast to return late next week with long-range models
signaling its persistence through the 4th of July Weekend and
beyond. ESATs suggest >97.5th percentile moisture returning as
well, which means dewpoints returning to around 70 F or greater.
Current forecast highs are right around 90 F, but NBM 75th
percentile has temperatures up to the middle 90s. Paired with
returning dewpoints above 70 F, Heat Index values could reach
back to Heat Advisory levels.

So big message from this is that for the July 4th to July 12th
period, the CPC gives a 50-60% chance for much of our area to
exceed our above normal Heat Index threshold. For early July,
that threshold is 100-105 (Heat Advisory levels). Therefore,
there is currently a 50-60% chance for Heat Index values to
exceed 100-105, and for a Heat Advisory to be issued, at any
point in time during the 4th of July weekend through July 12th.
That does not mean a 50-60% chance to exceed those values every
day during the time period, though. It is the cumulative chance
of seeing 100+ Heat Index values and a Heat Advisory sometime
between July 4th and July 12th. Partners and the public should
plan accordingly as many events will be held outdoors for
Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

An outflow boundary is currently moving south through southern
Missouri early this afternoon from morning convection that
occurred across central Missouri. A brief wind shift to the
north will occur behind the outflow but winds will return to
south to southwesterly. The outflow is generated isolated
showers and storms as it pushes south through the area.

Additional showers and thunderstorms have developed from central
Kansas into northeastern Missouri. This activity will move
south/southeast through the area and could impact the TAF sites
this afternoon into this evening. MVFR to IFR conditions will
occur with the storms. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
possible with the storms this afternoon.

After the storms to the north move through the area much of the
evening hours could be dry but it is also possible for some
isolated convection to linger through the evening hours.
Additional storms will develop north of the area and move south
tonight into Monday morning. There area questions on just how
far south and the exact track of this activity. A front will
also move east through the area on Monday, both bringing
additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ057-058-
     069>071-081>083-097-098-106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Wise