673
FXUS63 KSGF 132317
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
617 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in above normal temperatures through the
  remainder of the week into the weekend. Daily highs in the
  80s, with near record high maximum and high minimum
  temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Increasing confidence in unsettled weather Friday through the
  weekend, and into early next week. This includes the potential
  for some strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to
  localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Uncertainty remains in
  the exact details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Today-Tonight: An upper-level ridge continues to shift eastward
on the central CONUS today. As a result, low-level warm air
advection streams into the Middle Mississippi Valley. 850
temperatures push 15 to 17 C this afternoon, correlating to
surface temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The warmest temperatures will be found across southeast KS into
southwest MO where height rises are most significant. Meanwhile,
weak convergence and lift may support an isolated shower or
thunderstorm across the Eastern Ozarks through this
afternoon/evening. Most locations remain dry with PoPs < 10%.
Winds gradually increase out of the southeast through this
evening. Overnight lows fall into the lower to middle 60s.

Wednesday: Additional warming expected into Wednesday with 850
temperatures pushing 17 to 19 C. Confidence is high that strong
mixing will support surface highs in the lower to middle 80s
across the area, with perhaps some locations taking a run at
record highs (see Climate AFD section). Meanwhile, dewpoints
climb into the upper 60s to near 70. This will give us the first
taste of humidity this year, with maximum afternoon heat index
values approaching lower 90s along and west of Highway 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Thursday: Unseasonably warm temperatures persist into late week and
this weekend as mid-level southwest flow takes shape over the
region. Daily highs in the 80s can be expected. The main upper-
level wave and surface low are progged to lift through the
Central and Northern Plains, remaining displaced well north of
the area. An associated surface cold front will be draped back
through the central CONUS. Forcing remains limited, with a
strong thermal cap preventing any convection. A very low
confidence scenario would be for initiation to overcome the cap,
in a regime that will be highly unstable.

Friday: Additional shortwave energy translates eastward through
the region on Friday and into the weekend. However, there
remains some differences on placement and timing of the features
that will play a key role in convection on Friday. There are
two scenarios presenting themselves on Friday. The first being a
strong cap limits convection initiation and the second being
forcing overcomes the cap and convection develops in an
environment favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Guidance has remained variable between the no convection versus
convection scenarios. If convection is able to initiate, the
environment will be characterized by strong deep layer shear
(50-60 knots) in the vicinity of ample instability (ML CAPE
1500-2500 J/kg). SPC highlights portions of south central MO in
15% outlook (equivalent to a Slight Risk 2 of 5). An additional
signal is depicted in various Machine-Learning Severe
Probability products. Continue to follow the forecast for
updates as changes occur over the next 72 to 84 hours.

Saturday-Monday: Unsettled weather persists into the weekend
with increasing rain chances. Rain chances (40-70%) are highest
as we progress through Saturday night into Sunday, and beyond
into early next week. There remains some uncertainty in the
exact timing/placement of key mesoscale features that will drive
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to
localized heavy rainfall and flooding. However, it is worth
noting this deep southwest flow pattern is supportive of both.
While there will be dry time through late weekend and early next
week, periods of showers and thunderstorms are becoming
increasingly likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Winds remain
out of the southeast through 18Z before turning more southerly
beyond that time, with occasional gusts up to 20 kt. MVFR to
near-IFR ceilings may build into south-central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks around 12Z, however, the best signal appears to
remain east of the terminal sites, so any mention was left out
of the current TAFs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Record High Temperatures:

May 14:
KSGF: 88/2018
KJLN: 92/1947
KVIH: 89/1899

May 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KUNO: 87/1957


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 14:
KSGF: 66/1911

May 15:
KSGF: 67/1941

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Burchfield