310
FXUS63 KSGF 281651
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1151 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms likely again today (50-75% chances),
  decreasing by sunset. Rain rates of 1-3 in/hr, isolated
  flooding, and a strong downburst or two will be possible in
  the strongest cells. Additional morning and afternoon storms
  Sunday.

- Greatest coverage for showers and thunderstorms will occur
  Sunday night and Monday with a frontal passage (50-75%
  chances). There is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for some of these
  storms to become severe.

- Some mild heat relief during the middle of next week following
  the frontal passage. 15-30% chances for isolated showers and
  thunderstorms will exist in southern Missouri near the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Rainfall from yesterday has cooled temperatures into the lower
70s tonight, while keeping dewpoints also in the lower 70s.
Despite cloud cover aloft, weak winds and saturated grounds may
produce some patchy light fog across the area tonight. Some fog
has already been reported in river valleys out near West Plains.

Current RAP analysis depicts weak flow aloft over much of the
CONUS, save for across the very northern portions of the
northern states. Water vapor imagery depicts subtle and weak
circulations and shortwaves across the CONUS. Despite the weak
flow, the nocturnal low-level jet is still kicking at 20-30 kts
across the Plains. The pairing of a very subtle and weak
shortwave and weak warm air advection along the nose of a 20-25
kt LLJ will be the main driver for today`s chances of showers
and thunderstorms.


Efficient showers and thunderstorms likely again today:

Radar imagery already depicts shower and thunderstorm development
in NE Oklahoma within the region of lift provided by the
shortwave and LLJ. These should continue to develop and lift
into our region through the morning much like yesterday. For
yesterday`s storms, CAMs like the HRRR and FVR failed to develop
storms until the afternoon, whereas other CAMs like the
ARW/NSSL/NAMNest developed widespread showers and thunderstorms
in the morning, which is what occurred. The same scenarios are
being output by the same models for storms today. With the same
weather pattern in place, all the chips are going in for the
ARW/NSSL/NAMNest models for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing across the region this morning,
progressing east through the area during the afternoon, and
dissipating by sunset (50-75% chances). Oh, and also because
the synoptics support this scenario based on weak lift from the
shortwave and LLJ.

Much like yesterday, PWATs of 1.75-2.0" will continue to be in
place across the region. This, along with weak flow and slow
storm motions, will once again bring the potential for 1-3 in/hr
rain rates and precip-loaded downbursts of up to 40 mph within
the stronger storms. This could lead to isolated instances of
flooding. All three of these hazards were observed yesterday,
therefore it wouldn`t be farfetched for these hazards to be seen
again in isolated places today.

The rain and clouds should also keep temperatures lower today in
the lower to middle 80s, providing some heat relief. It will
still be humid, though!


Additional 30-70% chances for rain late tonight:

A lull in precipitation is then expected after sunset as diurnal
heating ceases. Then, later tonight, short-term models depict
more broad 850 mb warm air advection ahead of a 20-25 kt low-
level jet and a more distinct, but still weak, mid-level
shortwave. This will once again bring 30-70% chances for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late tonight
into Sunday morning. The better coverage for this round will be
toward central MO where the nose of the low-level jet will be
set up.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

It remains to be seen how stabilized morning storms will make
the atmosphere for the afternoon Sunday. Models are quite spread
with the RAP producing extreme MUCAPE upwards of 4000 J/kg
while, interestingly, the HRRR keeps things more tame in the
1000-2000 J/kg range with some weak CIN. If enough
destabilization can be acquired by Sunday afternoon, RAP
soundings suggest pulse thunderstorms will be possible--via the
Ozarks Pulse Thunderstorm Index. HREF mean also brings 20 kts of
deep-layer shear into the region. This would bring the
potential for continued brief heavy downpours and downburst
winds up to 40-60 mph. Indeed, a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for
isolated severe thunderstorms is in place for Sunday.


Greater coverage of storms Sunday night into Monday with front:

The greater risk for the Marginal Severe Outlook, however, is
for late Sunday night, although there is lower confidence in the
evolution of the risk. Early mid-range CAMs are suggesting that
thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of a cold front across
NE/IA will conglomerate into an MCS and dive southward,
potentially reaching into southwest Missouri. Though shear will
be weaker in our area (around 20 kts), an organized MCS would
still be able to produce damaging winds up to 60 mph and
quarter-sized hail, given enough instability.

Another round of greater storm coverage is expected as the cold
front and more potent trough axis progresses through the region
Monday afternoon (50-75% chances). The greater forcing through
the moist and unstable airmass that has plagued our region
should promote greater coverage of showers and storms. Given the
stronger forcing for summertime, unstable air, and SREF mean
deep-layer shear in the 15-20 kt range, some isolated severe
multicell clusters are possible. The greatest risk will be
confined to our central MO counties, closer to the greater
upper-level flow of the trough. A Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for
severe thunderstorms exists in this region.

Of additional note, isolated flooding will also be possible with
any storms through Monday. WPC has us in a Marginal (1 of 4)
Risk for excessive rainfall for each day, and a weak QPF
footprint is showing up on the Extreme Forecast Index for the
Ozarks each day.


Mild heat relief behind the front with highs in the mid-80s:

After the front passes, we will see ever so slightly "cooler"
temperatures with highs in the middle 80s Tuesday, Wednesday,
and Thursday. The real kicker is that NBM dewpoints are
forecast to drop into the 60s, keeping Heat Index values below
90 F, and low temperatures in the middle 60s for this period.

However, heat is expected to build back into the region as
ridging is progged to return into next weekend. The NBM
forecast highs rise back into the upper 80s and lower 90s next
weekend, with dewpoints trudging back up near 70 F.


Daily 15-30% shower and thunderstorm chances next week:

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur daily along the
cold front, which is progged to stall south of our area.
Depending on the exact position of the boundary, some showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across southern Missouri each
day (15-30% chances). These would be back to the pop-up garden
variety isolated showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

An area of showers and scattered thunderstorms are currently
across southern Missouri late this morning. This activity will
continue to slowly move east across the area this afternoon into
early this evening. This activity should then overall dissipate
around sunset. The better coverage in storms may remain just
east of the TAF sites but some embedded thunderstorms within
the showers will remain possible. Later tonight into Sunday
additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop and move south through the area. MVFR to brief IFR
conditions will be possible with the storms today and again
tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Wise