164
FXUS63 KSGF 151719
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1119 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and patchy mist will linger into this morning.

- Windy Tuesday with gusts up to 35 mph possible west of
  Springfield.

- Above-average temperatures are likely (70-90% chance) this week
  with highs in the 60s and 70s through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Synoptic overview: A low pressure center is currently moving through
the Texarkana region with its warm/stationary front responsible for
the rain and drizzle we saw across the Ozarks region Saturday.
Precipitation is gradually coming to an end for us from west to east
as the continues to move off. Low clouds will continue to linger
behind the precipitation until they begin to clear out around midday.

Winds will be northerly today, but rising 850mb heights and
afternoon sunshine will pull highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
There are a few degrees of uncertainty surrounding the high
temperatures, as they will depend on the timing of clearing clouds
and precipitation for a particular area. Regardless of the exact
highs, they are expected to be 10-15 degrees above normal.

Winds become light and variable by evening as surface high pressure
moves in. Combined with clear skies overnight and the surface
moisture resulting from Saturday`s rain, there may be a risk for
widespread fog tonight, particularly east of Hwy 65 where winds will
remain calm the longest. Short term ensembles indicate a widespread
50-70% chance for visibility <0.25 miles. However, atmospheric
moisture will be on its way out with the low moving off. Fog
potential tonight will become much clearer after seeing how things
evolve through the day today. Lows tonight will range from the mid
30s in the east (where skies will be clearest and winds lightest) to
low 40s in the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Heading into Monday, upper level ridging continues to move in, but
850mb troughing and surface low pressure to the west induce
southerly flow. West of I-49, winds could gust up to 30 mph.
Elsewhere, winds will largely stay under 20 mph. Minimum relative
humidity will be around 40% along the plateau, so fire weather
conditions will not yet be an issue. However, a front passes through
Tuesday night, sweeping moisture out of the area and increasing fire
danger for Wednesday and Thursday. This frontal passage looks to be
mostly dry,  but could bring up to a 20% chance for some quick rain
to our northern counties.

Tuesday will be the windiest day as the surface pressure gradient
tightens. Gusts up to 35 mph will be possible along I-49. With
southerly flow continually through Thursday morning (at times
quite strong), temperatures will continue to climb. Ensemble
spreads indicate high confidence in highs in the 70s area-wide.
Typical highs for this time of year are around 46-51 degrees, so
we will be seeing temperatures 20+ degrees above normal. See
the Climate section for records that could be in jeopardy.

A low pressure center passing to the north on Thursday finally puts
an end to our southerly flow. There are some low 15-20% PoPs for our
eastern fringes associated with this. How the pattern evolves past
Thursday is a bit uncertain, particularly the degree of cooling, as
the NBM has interquartile temperature spreads of 10+ degrees Friday
onward. However, the spreads primarily span the 50s, indicating that
we should at least return closer to normal temperatures
regardless.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Stratus continues to break up across the area and should be SKC
or SCT by 18z-19z at the 3 TAF sites. It looks like we get to or
fall below crossover temperatures tonight with forecast
soundings showing a fog potential. Probabilistic data from the
HREF is showing fog potential at SGF/BBG and have added some
MVFR after 06z with a tempo group of LIFR from 07z through 11z
and finally back to VFR after 15z. Winds should diminish to
light and variable by 00z but should then begin to increase
closer to morning as the pressure gradient begins to tighten.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 17:
KSGF: 73/1911
KJLN: 74/2011
KVIH: 73/2017

February 18:
KSGF: 74/2016
KJLN: 78/1986
KVIH: 72/1991
KUNO: 77/1986

February 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KVIH: 76/2017
KUNO: 73/1981


Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

February 18:
KSGF: 51/1971

February 19:
KSGF: 52/1994

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Nelson