795
FXUS63 KSGF 162357
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
657 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30-60% coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  with localized heavy rainfall.

- Warm and mostly dry this weekend with highs returning to the
  90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees. Hottest
  conditions expected Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid
  90s to around 100, lows in the mid to upper 70s, and heat
  index values around 100-105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Upper air analysis
shows an upper level ridge shifting west into the Rockies. There
is shortwave energy currently located over Missouri. A very
moist airmass is in place across the area with the 12z KSGF
sounding measuring a PW value of 1.91in. As of early afternoon,
convective temps have been reached and scattered showers and
storms have been developing over the area.

Showers and Storm Chances Today and Friday: Would expect
additional scattered showers and storms to form over the area
during the afternoon and early evening. Slow storm motions to
the north will occur. Much like yesterday, very localized areas
could see 2-3 inches of rain in a short period of time. Latest
high res data suggests locations along and north of Highway 54
have the highest chances of seeing these localized higher
amounts of rain. Most areas will see much less than that but
areas that do get the quick burst of rain could see a localized
flood threat. WPC continues the Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. Pulse severe diagnostics suggest a very low chance for
a storm to produce wind gusts to 30-50 mph.

Mid level heights do begin to rise some on Friday however there
will be a weakening low level jet in the morning that could
allow for isolated showers and storms. Chances are much lower
for tomorrow versus today (less than 30 percent) however will
need to assess updated high res data to pin down any areas that
could see higher/lower chances. Otherwise, temps should be
warmer with highs in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Mostly Dry and Hot: Ensemble cluster analysis continues to
depict an upper ridge attempting to re establish itself across
the Rockies for the weekend into early next week. This would
favor surface temps climbing into the upper 80s to warmer 90s
for the weekend.

Warmer 850mb temps aloft look to arrive on Monday (mean 850mb
temps higher than 22C) which would allow for high temps
reaching the lower to middle 90s early next week. While there
could be a few areas reach the upper 90s, we think that given
the green vegetation, the potential for upper 90s or higher is
low.

Heat indicies are currently forecast to reach the upper 90s to
lower 100s and the heat risk tool show potential for the area
to reach the moderate to major category this weekend but
especially early next week. We will need to monitor for the
potential for any Heat Advisories next week. Rain chances are
currently less than 20 percent given the strength of the warm
air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have cleared north of the TAF sites,
leaving clear skies and VFR conditions amid southwesterly to
southerly 3-8 kt winds through 18Z. Another 3-4 kft cu field
should develop after 14Z, with a renewed chance for shower and
thunderstorm development between 18-00Z. Unlike past days,
coverage of rain should be much lower during this period, though
short-term guidance does suggest at least a brief period for
pop-up storms in the vicinity of the TAF sites.

Otherwise, winds will be southwesterly at 8-12 kts after 14Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Price