445
FXUS63 KSGF 032319
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms this
  afternoon and evening across portions of central Missouri.

- More widespread in nature showers and storms will move
  through the area late Monday evening into Tuesday. The is a
  Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms with this
  activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show cyclonic flow
around a low centered over Hudson Bay covering the northeastern
2/3 of the CONUS and continuing to bring northwesterly flow to
the area. A large low pressure system remains off the California
coast with westerly subtropical jet flow south of the low
across Mexico into the Gulf coastal states. A mid/upper level
shortwave was dropping southeast out of the upper Mississippi
valley into the Upper Great Lakes and western sections of the
Ohio valley regions. At the surface, a cold front was dropping
southeast into northern Missouri. Dewpoints have risen into the
upper 40s to near 50 in the west and you can see the narrow low
level moisture increase in the ALPW surface to 850mb polar
orbiting satellite imagery. That being said, we have a fairly
stout area of MU CIN over the area and visible satellite shows
no cloud development.

Late this afternoon and tonight: previously mentioned cold front
will likely stall out north of the CWA. CAMS are depicting most
if not all convection remaining north of the area though we are
keeping low pops in our northern CWA. With steep mid level lapse
rates edging in here late in the day into this evening, elevated
instability above around 700mb and increasing shear, if an
isolated storm were to form, it may be capable of large hail to
the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph. We are
expecting most if not all of the area to remain dry however.
Temperatures tonight will be quite a bit warmer than the past
couple of nights with the low level southerly flow. We should
have lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Monday-Monday night: Upper flow will begin to transition to
more of a westerly flow as the upper low off the California
coast begins to shift inland and upper jet energy shifts across
the southwest U.S. and begins to phase with the northern stream
cyclonic flow. The front will slowly begin to shift south into
the area and we`ll have some increasing afternoon instability
enough for some low pops during the day in the northern half of
the CWA. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will arrive
on Monday night as the front begins to push through the area and
a low level jet sets up over the region. There may be enough
shear and instability along with the frontal convergence for
some strong to severe storms. Hail and thunderstorm wind gusts
would be the main severe weather risks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The frontal boundary will continue to push through the area on
Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms continuing. A few strong
to severe storms will remain possible during the day on Tuesday
with hail and damaging wind gusts remaining the main severe
weather risks. With the front continuing to sink south of the
area Tuesday night, the instability should also diminish by the
early evening. The main upper trough will then swing through on
Wednesday and may bring some additional rain to the area with
fairly cool temperatures in the 50s for highs and upper 30s to
low 40s for lows Wednesday night.

Behind the upper wave on Wednesday it generally looks to be dry
into next weekend with temperatures returning to the 70s by
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR through the period with wind shear near 45 knots overnight.
Winds will be out of the southwest gusting up to 25 knots for
the rest of today and gusting near 30 knots for Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Soria