899
FXUS63 KSGF 121745
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1245 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-40% rain chances today and tomorrow, with cooler
  temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

- Temperatures increase back into the mid to upper 90s Friday
  and through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:
An upper trough extends from central Canada due south through
the Plains, with a very weak low aloft over the central Plains
per 00Z upper air data. Models show two separate fronts at
850mb, each aligned with WPC-analyzed surface fronts: one
extending from near the TX Panhandle through northeast MO and
into the Great Lakes, and another with a stronger temperature
gradient that hooks from a low in northern Ontario through MN
and into the NE Panhandle.

The jet streak around the base of the trough will become more
compact and push east through the Northwoods region of the
upper Midwest today, but the meridional flow in the Plains will
be broken apart. The 250mb closed low will be scooped back into
the parent trough`s flow as the trough moves east, putting us
into a northwesterly wind pattern. However, a residual pocket
of energy will be left behind and get stuck in the weak flow
until the ridge currently building over Florida broadens enough
to absorb it, likely Wednesday night or Thursday.

As the closed low moves northeast and gets absorbed today,
pockets of CVA will provide forcing for a 20-50% chance of more
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Areas
further south and east will have the best chance of storms.
Otherwise, high temperatures will only reach mid to upper 80s
in most of the CWA thanks to the cooler northwesterly flow. If
a scenario were to play out where no storms formed, the absence
of cloud cover would help raise temperatures a couple degrees
this afternoon, bringing temperatures up into the low 90s with heat
indices up near 100 degrees in the eastern Ozarks.

The energy that gets left behind comes into play tomorrow,
bringing 15-40% chances of more isolated showers and storms in
the afternoon. Temperatures remain in the mid to upper 80s for
tomorrow as well, with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Low-level flow returns to southerly on Thursday as the Ozarks
become overrun by the western edge of the building ridge over
the southeast. Temperatures begin to climb back up, reaching
back to mid to upper 90s on Friday. Temperatures will remain in
the high double digits through the weekend, and southerly flow
will also keep us moist, with dew points in the upper 60s to low
70s. This would bring heat indices up to 100-105 degrees for
Friday-Monday, which could bring Heat Advisory into conversation
if the forecast remains consistent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Medium-high confidence in VFR conditions through the entire TAF
period. A 3-4 kft cu field will be present between 18-02Z.
During this time, winds will be NNW`ly at 3-8 kts, slowly
shifting to NE`ly between 02-14Z.

There is a low-end chance for a stray shower through the period
(<15% chance), especially near SGF and BBG. Confidence is low in
this as the main front is off to the east of the TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Price