596
FXUS63 KSGF 222308
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below normal temperatures tonight with some areas near
  central Missouri seeing lows in the lower 40s.

- High confidence in multiple rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms for the Memorial Day Weekend (60-90% daily
  chances). Flood Watch in effect Friday night through Monday
  night with widespread total rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches
  with localized amounts up to 8 inches.

- Isolated hail-producing thunderstorms may also occur, with a
  Marginal to Slight (1-2 of 5) severe risk Friday night into
  Saturday, especially west of Highway 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows an upper level low across the Great Lakes
with northwest flow across the Ozarks. A mid level ridge was
located across the Rockies with surface high pressure across the
plains creating northerly winds across the area. Some mid level
clouds were passing through the area ahead of a weak impulse to
the south. A few showers and storms were located as close as
southern Kansas.

Through Tonight: The band of isolated showers and thunderstorms
may graze southern Missouri, south of Highway 60 this afternoon
and evening. Have kept chances less than 30 percent due to the
uncertainty in coverage. This activity will likely decrease
after sunset with a mostly clear night ahead.

Surface high pressure will be sliding into the area overnight
with light winds and mostly clear skies. With afternoon dews in
the 40s to around 50, overnight lows will drop well into the 40s
tonight for areas along and east of Highway 65. We could even
see some valley/river fog across the eastern Ozarks by Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Flooding and Severe Potential this Weekend: Ensembles are still
in agreement that a surface front will lift north and become
anchored in a northwest to southeast fashion across the
Kansas/Missouri/Oklahoma/Arkansas border region. All while
moisture levels increase and lift increases with passing
shortwaves in the northwest flow. This will set the stage for
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms for this upcoming
Memorial Day Holiday weekend.

The first round looks to get going as early as Friday evening as
the low level jet increases and lifts over the front. There is
also some right entrance region jet influence as well. This
round of showers and thunderstorms will increase overnight into
Saturday morning. Latest HREF guidance (which goes through
Friday night) shows about 500j/kg of MU CAPE and 40kts of 0-6km
shear. This could allow for elevated hail producing storms (1
inch diameter) during the overnight hours, especially west of
Highway 65. Otherwise PW values of 1.2-1.5in will allow for
heavy rainfall and flooding potential as the HREF LPMM is
showing amounts of 2-4 inches in a corridor from Joplin to
Springfield to West Plains and south.

This round of thunderstorms may persist into the day Saturday
however a small break could occur late in the day before another
round develops Saturday night as the low level jet develops
again. The placement of the front is in question Saturday night
however there seems to be a consensus that this will be near or
just south of the Missouri/Arkansas state line. This will have
implications on where the heaviest amount of rainfall occurs
Saturday night. It may develop again across southern Missouri
however we will need to monitor the location. The latest
EFI/Shift of Tails tool is showing the potential for an
anomalous precip event during this period across southern
Missouri. If enough instability is present we could see
additional severe storms with large hail however confidence in
severe weather occuring is not high.

It then appears that the flow will try to start to turn more
west to southwesterly Sunday night into Monday as shortwave
energy digs into the Rockies with another round of showers and
thunderstorms. This could lift the front further north into
Missouri. This additional precip again will only fall on
increasingly saturated soils with a flooding risk.

Heaviest total rainfall amounts will be dependent on where the
thunderstorms occur each night. There is enough confidence that
most of the area will be in or near the overlap of rounds,
especially near or southwest of Springfield. Latest NBM is
showing storm total qpf spreads of 2-3 inches with the 25th
percentile around 2-3 inches and the 75th percentile around 4-5
inches. There are indications that localized amounts could
reach 7-8 inches total however this will likely be in narrow
corridors not determined until we are in the full range of high
res guidance.

Current Southern Missouri streamflows are listed as above
normal. Therefore given the potential for this volume of
rainfall occuring during a busy holiday weekend on elevated
streamflows and soils has us concerned about the flooding
potential. We have issued a Flood Watch for Friday night through
Monday evening to get the word out that flooding could be a big
concern if these rainfall amounts materialize. There is a
Moderate risk for flooding Sunday through Monday from WPC which
also boosts confidence in the flooding risk. Those with outdoor
plans near area waterways will need to closely monitor the
situation. We will continue to revise the forecast as we get
closer and deeper into the high resolution data period.
Otherwise the widespread clouds and precip will likely keep high
temps below average in the 60s and lower 70s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

For the 00z TAFS, should see VFR conditions and light northerly
winds becoming east-southeasterly on Friday. Mid level ceilings
on Friday morning will gradually lower with the approach of the
next system which could bring some showers to the JLN TAF
(prob30) during the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Monday evening for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Monday evening for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Lindenberg