583
FXUS63 KSGF 231141
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures and mostly dry for today, with only
  limited chances for light showers, mainly northwest of I-44
  (<25% chance).

- Below average temperatures expected through next week, with
  50-75% confidence for highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

- 20-40% rain chances Monday and Tuesday for the southwestern
  corner of Missouri and southeastern corner of Kansas. Then,
  20-50% rain chances for much of the Ozarks Thursday and
  onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Current water vapor imagery depicts a well-defined bowl trough
across the enter north-central and northwest CONUS with ribbons
of dry air coinciding with a 70-80 kt jet streak across the
Dakotas/MN/IA/NE. Lined up just ahead of this jet streak,
surface analysis shows a cold front. Water vapor shows decent
mid-level moisture along and ahead of the front, allowing for
some showers and storms across KS/NE/IA. The trough is beginning
to squash an eastward extended ridge axis currently over
Missouri. These higher heights will allow for one more day of
near normal temperatures today with highs in the middle 80s to
lower 90s. The warmer temperatures are expected to be along the
southern MO border as cooler air begins to filter in from the
north. Then tonight, after the frontal passage, lows will drop
into the middle 50s toward central MO, and middle 60s along the
southern MO border.


Limited chances for light showers northwest of I-44 today:

The moisture noted ahead of the cold front will present some
weak instability for the front to work with. Hi-res short-term
models suggest some light showers could develop ahead of the
front in this instability regime. However, given the front will
have only a subtle wind shift leading to weaker convergence, and
upper-level support in the way of vorticity advection will be
meager, expectations are only for isolated to scattered weak and
light showers. Additionally, these should dissipate as daytime
heating ceases. Based on the timing of the frontal passage
coinciding with daytime heating, this puts mainly northwest of
I-44 in the 15-20% chances for showers during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Below average temperatures expected through next week:

The aforementioned bowl trough will settle in place as a
longwave trough across the eastern CONUS Sunday and onward
through next week. This will place northwest flow and lowered
heights across our region, filtering cooler than normal air for
late August. In fact, backwards trajectories of the model
forecasts places the origin of the air we will experience this
week in the Arctic circle, thousands of meters in the air. No
wonder it will be cooler.

NBM deterministic temperatures range from the lower 70s to the
lower 80s for high temperatures next week. Given the current
forecast, the coolest days look to be Monday and Thursday with
highs in the lower 70s. The warmest days look to be Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Interestingly, the NBM spreads are tightest for our warmer
forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, and spread pretty far out for
our coolest days on Monday, Thursday, and onward. In other
words, there is higher confidence in the upper 70s to lower 80s
temperature forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday than there is for
the lower 70s forecast Monday and Thursday. NBM 25th-75th
temperature spreads are 76-82 F Tuesday/Wednesday, with a range
from 70-81 F Monday/Thursday. In other-other words, in a
probabilistic sense, there is an equal chance for 70 F
Monday/Thursday as there is for 80 F. Nevertheless, NBM
deterministic has held a consistent trend for highs in the 70s
for multiple days next week, which is 10-15 degrees below the
normal temperature of 88 F for this time of year. At the moment,
no records are challenged, but it will be an unusually cool end
to August as EFI values at 0.6-0.8 signal an unusual event.

During this period, lows will also be fall-like with nighttime
temperatures forecasted to be in the 50s with the potential for
the eastern Ozarks to see lows in the middle 40s Tuesday night.


Round 1 of 20-40% rain chances Monday and Tuesday:

As the longwave trough sits over the eastern CONUS, shortwaves
and jet streaks are progged to progress through. The associated
synoptic ascent with these waves and jet streaks will bring
chances of rain to portions of the area next week. The first
round of chances are Monday into Tuesday as an unseasonably
strong jet streak (>99.5th percentile wind speeds) dives
through the region, providing strong right entrance region
dynamical lift overtop the cold front across the southern CONUS.
Model trends have continually shifted these rain chances
southward with each subsequent run. Ensemble cluster analysis
reveals that most GEFS members have the furthest north solutions
with the most rain across our forecast area. The ECMWF, on the
other hand, has the furthest south solution, keeping our area
mostly dry. This follows model biases somewhat. The GEFS has a
warm bias, which would keep the cold front a bit more poleward,
leading to a northward solution for the rain bands.

That being said, as the models continue to trend southward, so
do the rain chances. Currently, there is a 20-40% chance for
rain showers across the southwest corner of Missouri and
southeast corner of Kansas, generally south of Highway 60.

The nature of this rainfall will be more widespread with
embedded heavier showers due to the lift being larger-scale in
nature and forecast instability quite meager (<250 J/kg). All in
all, rainfall amounts will largely be determined by the exact
track of the system and the resulting extent of the rain into
our region. NBM 25th-75th percentile spreads exhibit this
uncertainty perfectly with the 25th percentile showing 0 inches
of rain, and the 75th percentile showing up to 0.5-1 inch of
rain for the corners of Missouri and Kansas. There is pretty
high confidence that areas northeast of Springfield will see
little to no rain during this time period. Trends will continue
to be monitored


Round 2 of 20-50% rain chances Thursday and onwards:

After a brief lull Wednesday, the next round of rain chances
appears Thursday and into the weekend as another shortwave drops
through the longwave trough. However, this wave has much higher
uncertainty as there are even ensemble member differences in the
position and shape of the longwave trough as evidenced by
cluster analysis. 45% of models keep us completely dry, 33% of
models bring some rain to the southwest corner of Missouri and
southeast corner of Kansas, and 22% of models bring quite a bit
of rain to our entire area. That`s quite the spread of
solutions, so there is little confidence to say in how the
systems will pan out. This little confidence leads to widespread
20-50% rain chances Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Once again,
say tuned to see which solution becomes favored as we get closer
to the day of the event.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Winds at the TAF sites are beginning to slowly shift to
northerly as a fropa is underway. Shortly after 12-14Z, the
northerly winds will pick up to 8-12 kts beneath a 5-6 kft cu
field. After 02Z, the cu field will dissipate and northerly
winds will decrease to 3-8 kts.

There are low chances (less than a PROB30 mention) for some light
rain showers between 18-02Z. These would be very low in
coverage and have little impact on visibility if they did move
over the TAF sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price