653
FXUS63 KSGF 051952
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
252 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A thunderstorm complex is expected late tonight through Friday
  morning. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, frequent lightning
  and localized flooding are the main hazards. Greatest severe
  threat is southwest of Springfield. Flood Watch for far
  southeastern Kansas and far southern Missouri tonight and
  into Friday.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms will occur through the
  weekend, especially Saturday morning. Localized flooding and
  damaging winds will be a concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Considerable uncertainty still exists on the track of an
expected overnight into Friday morning MCS. Thunderstorms are
expected to grow upscale over SW Kansas this evening and track
toward the area. The MUCAPE gradient slopes to the ESE from
there through northern AR and far southwestern MO while Corfidi
Vectors are to the E/ESE. Both of these favors will favor the
MCS tracking over or near the far southwestern and southern CWA,
although uncertainty still exists in exactly where the complex
forms and tracks. Some guidance even brings the MCS across the
northern CWA, but that seems unlikely. Severe potential is
mainly 60mph wind threat over the far southwest, but again
depends on track.

Given the greatest potential being over the south, issued a
Flash Flood Watch roughly along and south of Highway 60 tonight
through Friday morning. Recent rainfall has resulted in
saturated soils. In the watch area, models generally favor 1-3
inches locally up to 5 inches of rain.

Could see some additional isolated to scattered showers and
non-severe storms Friday afternoon evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Friday night into Saturday morning is nearly a copy of the
scenario tonight into Friday morning, but with even less
confidence since it`s farther out in time. The setup and
probabilities again favor the southwestern CWA for both severe
and flooding.

Sunday into next week: The overall flow turns more
northwesterly as an upper level low drops into the northern
plains. While rain chances do decrease, they are not zero
(generally 10-30% Sunday and Monday) as weak shortwave energy
moves down into the area. This would support more of a isolated
to scattered potential versus a prolonged/widespread washout
rainfall. Temps will likely remain near average for early June
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, depending on
clouds/precip.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A active weather patter remains in place across the region and
will bring the potential for showers, storms and low ceilings
and visibilities over the next 24 hours. Initial overcast
IFR/MVFR skies will slowly improve to VFR into this evening
though chances for showers and storms begin after 21z.

Where storms occur at airfields, conditions will fall to
MVFR/IFR resting from low ceilings and heavy rain impacting
visibilities. Storm and rain chances tapper off by 17Z Friday
for most sites with slowly improving conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
     KSZ101.
MO...Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
     MOZ082-088-090>097-101>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Hatch