647
FXUS63 KSGF 050903
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
303 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 55-70% chance of drizzle continuing through the morning, with
  visibility reductions as low as 1-3 miles (localized below 1/2
  mile) as fog mixes with drizzle overnight.

- Drizzle will turn to rain this afternoon, with 35-75% chances
  of showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Highest chances of
  notable accumulations towards central Missouri, with most of
  the area expected to receive between 0.1 and 0.25".

- There will be several days with a large spread in temperatures
  over a relatively short distance, with colder temperatures
  north of Springfield and warmer temps south.

- Precipitation chances (30-60%) return this weekend, with eyes
  out for potential wintry precip after Sunday. No further
  details are available at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

An expansive stratus deck can be seen over the region on
satellite imagery, which has reduced ceilings to MVFR (<3000 ft)
and LIFR (<500ft) status for much of the forecast area.
Additionally, increased moisture and lift coinciding with these
areas of lowered ceilings and visibilities has led to drizzle
over portions of the area to continue into the early morning
hours. Some observations (especially near the MO/AR border and
far southwest MO) have shown more of a fine mist and/or fog
where the drizzle isn`t fully realized.

This drizzle activity is expected to continue (40-65% pops)
through this morning as the ingredients and rules of thumb
continue to line up. However as we move into the afternoon and
evening hours, ensembles and Hi-Res guidance show increased
instability over the area, with MUCAPE between 100-500 J/kg.
This will allow precip to become more convective in nature,
switching the drizzle over to showers (40-75% pops), and
bringing chances (15-20%) of a few rumbles of thunder through
the afternoon and evening. Not expecting much in terms of
rainfall accumulations, with most areas expected to see between
0.1-0.25". The HREF LPMM (Localized Probability-Matched Mean)
shows pockets of up to 0.50", however these would be very
localized in nature.

Continued to lean more towards the HREF for temperatures today
as the stratus deck remains over the region. This will lead to a
fairly wide spread of temperatures, with highs in the upper
50s/low 60s towards southern MO, decreasing further north in the
low to mid 40s closer to central MO.

The frontal boundary that`s been stalled in the south over the
past day and a half will begin to lift into the area tonight.
Lows north of the front will range in the upper 30s to mid 40s,
with WAA south of the front bringing lows in the low to mid 50s.
The exact placement of these temperatures will depend on how far
north the front lifts before pushing back south as a cold front
on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Surface high pressure will begin to form in the Plains Thursday
morning, bringing back northerly flow and pushing the front
south of the area. Afternoon highs will once again vary across
the area, and will be dependent on how quickly the front moves
south, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s/low 50s in
Central MO to the upper 50s/low 60s in South-Central MO.

Another low pressure system will impact the area this weekend,
bringing 30-60% chances of rain Friday night into Saturday. A
cold front is progged to move through the area behind this
system, bringing much cooler temperatures in the upper 30s to
low 40s by Sunday afternoon.

Looking ahead to next week, models show several upper level
shortwaves moving over the region, bringing a pattern favorable
for colder temperatures (highs in the 30s and lows in the
teen/20s) and potential wintry precipitation. Being so far out,
any confidence in precipitation types and amounts remains
significantly low, so check back for future forecast updates as
we get closer to this time period and confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1108 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

MVFR to LIFR conditions will continue, with conditions
deteriorating tonight into Wednesday. IFR and LIFR conditions
will be possible throughout the entire period as a frontal
boundary slowly lifts northward. Additionally, widespread
drizzle will be likely at times through tonight and into
tomorrow before switching over to light rain showers Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Record High Temperatures:

February 6:
KUNO: 66/2017

February 8:
KUNO: 69/2015

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto
CLIMATE...Camden