150
FXUS63 KSGF 011746
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1246 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy smoke this afternoon and again late tonight and
  Saturday morning, especially north of the Interstate 44
  corridor.

- Cooler temperatures will occur into this weekend.
  Temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below climatological normals are
  forecast through this period.

- There is a signal for the return of above-average temperatures
  again next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Surface pattern changed little since Thursday with high
pressure over the northern Plains into the Great Lakes
continuing to fill filter cooler air into the region. The upper
level pattern remains northwesterly as an upper ridge extends
from the desert southwest up the Rockies along with several
short wave troughs embedded in the flow. Thanks to the
northwest winds...cold air advection will continue today. This,
combined with clouds moving over the region will again keep
temperatures around 80 into this afternoon.

Despite rising heights in the upper levels...temperatures today
will be pleasantly cool with highs around 80 degrees thanks to
850mb temperatures from 14-16 degrees which will occur again
into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

As several shortwaves move over the top of the ridge, this will
act to weaken and break down the northern portions of the ridge
by Sunday...with a bit more stronger wave reaching the Ozarks
late Monday into Tuesday. The cold front that moved through the
region Thursday night will lay up across the Gulf into early
next week. This will limit the return flow of rich moist air and
associated instability ahead of this wave.

The Gulf will open by midweek as waves of energy continue to
round the southwest ridge and move into the central Plains
leading to additional lower end convective chances.

As the moisture makes a return to the Ozarks by the middle to
end of next week, so will the heat with temperatures climbing
back into the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

MVFR conditions will persist around Joplin for much of the
afternoon due to ceilings and reduced visibility from smoke.
Short term models indicate that both ceilings and visibility
will improve after 21Z with VFR prevailing by 22Z.

VFR will persist this afternoon at Springfield and Branson as
ceilings will remain above 3 kft and visibilities above 6 miles.

Short term models then indicate some potential for reduced
visibility late tonight and Saturday morning, especially around
Joplin. Given that probabilities of MVFR occurring are less than
20%, we have opted not to include a mention in the 18Z TAFs.

Otherwise, VFR will occur across southern Missouri from this
evening into Saturday morning.

Surface winds will remain in the 9-12 knot range from the
northeast this afternoon. Mixing will support gusts as high as
20 knots. Winds will diminish this evening with the loss of
daytime heating (and mixing).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann