579
FXUS63 KSGF 192306
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
606 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms south
  of Interstate 44 tonight with 60 mph winds and quarter size
  hail the primary risks.

 -There remains an Enhanced Risk Sunday across much of the
  area. Tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds are all
  possible with this system.

- A Flood Watch is in effect tonight through the weekend.
  Additional rainfall between 1-3 inches is expected across
  most of the area due to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.
  This will cause an increase in creek and river levels.
  Flooding of low water crossings is likely.

- Additional rain chances (40-70%) return Tuesday through
  Thursday night of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Rain continued across the region this morning and into this
afternoon. Rainfall totals through midday across much of the
area since midnight was from 2 to 4 inches which had produced
some areas of minor flooding. This has kept cloud cover over the
region with only a few peaks of sun so far. Where the rain
continued and clouds remained, temperatures have stayed in the
upper 40s to middle 50s. For areas in south central Missouri
where rain ended earlier and some sun has made it through
temperatures were in the lower 60s.

Rainfall continues to fall this afternoon for most of the area
and will continue into tonight as moisture pools along the 850mb
to surface front region located generally along and slightly
north of I-44 into northern Arkansas. As a 40-50kt low level jet
begins to nose into the region late tonight, this will help to
enhance rainfall rates and coverage along the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for from 1 to 3 inches of additional
rainfall to occur overnight which may lead to additional
flooding.

The storms early today shunted most of the instability south of
the area closer to where the surface frontal boundary looks to
be across northern Arkansas. This is expected to suppress the
severe storm potential this afternoon and evening. If
instability can recover, low confidence, an isolated strong
storm or two may occur. If a storm does become severe, the main
concern will be up to 1 inch hail and 60mph winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Enhanced severe risk for Sunday continues for most of the CWA.
Models continue to show a shortwave and resulting surface low
moving to the northeast from the plains and across the
northwestern half of Missouri during the afternoon and evening.
Models are still showing limits in how warm and unstable we
get with synoptic models along with the RFFS and HRRR all
indicating SBCAPE from 400 to 1000j/kg in the warm sector.
HREF probabilities were higher with >1,000 J/kg of SBCAPE
around 50% over most of the area. Shear magnitudes and profiles
will not be a limiting factor given the strength of the system
and negative tilting of the shortwave. SSE surface winds with
long, arcing hodographs are likely.

HREF probabilities of >60 kts of 0-6km shear was still around
70-100%. At this time, a linear storm mode with embedded
supercells remains most likely with the storms moving west to
east through the area from around 2pm to 10pm. Hail to golf
ball size hail remains expected, which may need to be adjusted
if instability increases/decreases with the latest model runs.
Thunderstorm winds up to 70 mph are possible given strong wind
fields. Even non-thunderstorm winds are expected to gust to
35-45 mph, or possibly higher. Tornadoes will also be possible.
SPC has a 10% tornado probability across much of the area.

Additional rainfall during the day Sunday will not be as much of
an issue since training is less likely. Still, it won`t take
much rainfall on our saturated soils to cause problems.

Next Week: Ensemble data continues to be consistent in bringing
additional shortwaves into and through the area from the
west/southwest Tuesday through Thursday night. NBM rainfall
probs continue to increase, especially Thursday and Friday and
we will need to monitor where this rainfall sets up given the
heavy rainfall from this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Unsettled weather continues to move through the area this TAF
period. IFR flight conditions will accompany showers and
thunderstorms overnight into Sunday morning, with reduced
visibilities around 2 to 4 miles and ceilings around 500 to 900
feet. A few instances of LIFR may occur. Conditions briefly
improve through mid Sunday morning, before the next round of
thunderstorms are progged to move through the region along a
cold front.

Winds will be at 5 to 10 knots out of the east tonight, turning
to the south into Sunday morning. Wind gusts approach 25 to 30
knots on Sunday afternoon ahead of the frontal passage, before
turning out of the west.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Perez