202
FXUS63 KSGF 061916
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
216 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rounds of showers and storms will occur through the
  weekend. Localized flooding and damaging winds will be a
  concern with the strongest storms both Saturday and Sunday.

- Drier weather through early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Through Tonight: Shortwave energy is sliding east of the area
this afternoon, with lingering showers persisting back into
southwest Missouri. This energy is riding along the stationary
boundary that continues to meander over the Ozarks. A few
isolated thunderstorms may develop through the late afternoon in
the vicinity of MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) east of Highway 65.
However, substantial subsidence exists in the wake of the
morning`s activity. No additional threat for severe weather
exists through tonight. Additionally, heavy rainfall has
subsided, though flooding will linger across portions of
southern Missouri. Lows fall into the middle 60s.

Saturday: As we progress into the overnight and early Saturday
morning, yet another compact shortwave is progged to move
through the region. Recent trends suggest that the Saturday
morning thunderstorm complex (or Mesoscale Convective System
(MCS)) will be displaced further south than Friday morning`s
activity. However, there still remains some variance amongst the
models. Typically, the track of a MCS can be influenced by
mesoscale features, such as an instability gradient and low-
level jet. Regardless, expectations are for a MCS to track
near or over the Ozarks region on Saturday morning. If the
further north scenario (over the Ozarks) is realized, strong to
severe thunderstorms in addition to heavy rainfall and flooding
are in play. This is characterized by an environment primarily
supportive of damaging winds, with a lower potential for large
hail or an isolated tornado. As for the heavy rainfall
potential, conditions remain highly saturated. Efficient
rainfall rates around 1 to 2+ inches per a hour can be expected
with any of the activity, supporting localized higher amounts.
HREF Probability Matched Mean (PMM) depicts a corridor of 1 to 2
inches clipping far southwest Missouri. Further north of this
axis, amounts steadily drop off. Meanwhile, a further south
scenario would favor less of a severe or flooding threat for the
area. Given the trends, a Flood Watch is not being introduced
at this time for Saturday morning as we remain on the northern
periphery of the MCS. Nonetheless, a soggy Saturday morning can
be expected with 60-90 PoPs.

Rain chances associated with the MCS gradually diminish through
the late morning, with additional scattered chances persisting
into the afternoon and evening. This will need to be monitored
closely as afternoon destabilization may occur in the wake of
the morning MCS. This sets the stage for a low confidence
scenario of strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon into
the early evening, capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail. SPC continues to highlight much of the area in the
Slight Risk (2 out of 5) through Saturday. Highs on Saturday
reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Sunday: The pattern begins to shift into Sunday, as an upper-
level low moves through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes
region. An associated surface cold front is progged to sweep
through the area. Timing of the frontal passage remains a bit
uncertain, which could influence a potential severe weather
episode. A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) is in effect on Sunday. For
now, we will continue to advertise 20-50 PoPs through Sunday
until we get more clarity in the forecast.

Monday-Wednesday: Ensemble guidance continues to be in good
agreement on a northwest flow pattern taking hold across the
region. This will keep the area drier with high pressure
settling in. Highs will be around or a few degrees below normal
for early June, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Late Next Week: Ensembles begin to diverge into late next week,
with the potential for southwest flow to return. However, some
guidance is quick to transition southwest flow to strong mid-
level ridging over the central CONUS. CPC 8 to 14 day outlooks
favor above normal temperatures and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A system continues to move through the area early this
afternoon, with a few lingering showers over the TAF sites. As
this activity shifts east through the mid to late afternoon,
flight conditions will become VFR. VFR conditions prevail
through tonight, before MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities
return on Saturday morning with the approach of the next
system. Light west-northwest winds at 5 to 10 knots today,
becoming variable overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez