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FXUS63 KSGF 222307
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
507 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend and dry weather conditions will occur across
  the area the rest of this weekend into early this coming week.

- High confidence in above normal temperatures occurring across
  the region next week especially on Monday and Tuesday.

- These warmer temperatures will support melting of the
  existing snowpack.

- A weak front will bring low rain chances (10-20%) to parts of
  the area on Wednesday, but many locations will likely remain
  dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

An upper level shortwave trough moved east through the region
this morning. Behind the trough sunny skies are occurring
across the area this afternoon. Temperatures early this
afternoon are currently in the lower to middle 30s and will
continue to warm into the middle 30s to the lower 40s for highs
this afternoon. A drier air mass is in place across the area and
afternoon minimum humidity values will drop into the 35 to 45%
range this afternoon.

Another shortwave upper level trough will move into the Plains
tonight and through the region later Sunday. With a drier air
mass in place, no precipitation is expected across the area
with the trough. Some high level clouds will move across the
region ahead of and with the upper level trough tonight into
Sunday. Lows tonight into Sunday morning will drop into the
lower to middle 20s.

Southerly surface winds and warm air advection in the lower
levels of the atmosphere will occur on Sunday. As a result highs
will warm into the upper 40s to the middle 50s across the area
Sunday afternoon. This will allow a lot of melting of the
snowpack across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

An upper level ridge will build east towards the area on Monday
and over the region on Tuesday. 850mb temperatures will
increase across the area with the trough. Models are in good
agreement on temperatures on Monday and Tuesday as there is a
low spread between the members on high values both days. Highs
Monday will warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s as highs
on Tuesday warm into the lower to middle 60s. A few models even
show the potential for some upper 60s readings being possible for
highs on Tuesday. Lows in the lower to middle 30s are expected
Monday night with lows in the middle to upper 30s Tuesday
night.

An upper level trough will move southeast across the Plains on
Wednesday and across the region Wednesday night. A cold front
will move through the area later Wednesday. Ahead of the front
highs will likely warm into the middle to upper 50s but if the
front is a little slowly some lower 60 readings is not out of
the question. A drier air mass will remain in place and will
limit the overall rainfall chances with the frontal passage. The
models are indicating a 10 to 20% chance for some rain mainly
across the eastern Ozarks Wednesday afternoon and evening, with
several model members keeping the area dry with this system.
Highs in the middle to upper 50s are expected again on Thursday
with highs in the upper 50s and 60s expected again on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

For the 00z TAFS, we are expecting VFR conditions to continue
across the area through the 24 hour period. Wind should be
southerly, but remain light at less than 10 kts.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg