580
FXUS63 KSGF 080830
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
330 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8 AM this morning
  for extreme southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas.
  Flash flooding remains the main threat, but a few instances of
  60 mph wind gusts and spin-up tornadoes are possible.

- Flood Watch remains in effect until 1 PM today for the entire
  area. Greatest at risk area for potentially significant and
  life-threatening flooding is in extreme southwest Missouri
  and southeast Kansas where a Moderate (3 of 4) Risk for
  excessive rainfall is in place.

- Above normal temperatures and humidity next week will lead to
  Heat Index values in the mid-90s to lower 100s. First heat of
  the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat-
  related impacts.

- Confidence increasing for additional rounds of rain during the
  end of this week (50-70% chance).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Numerous alerts are sprawled across our CWA tonight, mostly
encapsulated by a Flood Watch and several Flash Flood Warnings
as rainfall totals reached 1-2 inches across much of the area,
with a few pockets up to 6 inches.

After a very brief lull in shower and thunderstorm activity this
evening, numerous slow-moving showers and thunderstorms have
developed again within southwest Missouri, southeast Kansas, and
northeast Oklahoma. These storms are developing on the
convergent nose of the nocturnal low-level jet that is pumping
strong warm and moist air advection into the region. Of
additional note, the environment for these storms is a bit
different than earlier storms. Mid-level water vapor imagery
shows the deep moist air mass east of our region, with a belt of
dry air cycling into the center of the shortwave. Additionally,
where these storms are developing, shear profiles are
northwesterly versus the southwesterly profiles from earlier
today.


Potentially significant flash flooding possible this morning:

The way these storms are setting up is primed for training.
Indeed, we are already seeing vertical lines of thunderstorms
moving over the same areas in southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri. HREF CAM members are in quite good agreement that
these storms will continue to increase in coverage as the LLJ
only strengthens through the night. With 1.8-1.9 PWATs currently
in place (well above normal for this time of year), very heavy
downpours are likely. As a result, HREF LPMMs depict pockets of
up to 5-8 inches in areas around southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas. HRRR-based FIM and Water Model output
certainly paints a somewhat concerning flash flood picture if
these storms put the highest rainfall amounts over populated
areas. The WPC`s Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0359 has
more in depth information on the setup/risk, but their summary
falls in line with our messaging of "a locally significant and
life-threatening flash flood event" being expected. If in
Cherokee, Crawford, Jasper, Lawrence, Newton, McDonald, and
Barry Counties, please be aware of potentially localized
significant and life-threatenng flash flooding come morning.


Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8 AM this morning:

While flash flooding is the main threat through this morning,
the mid-level dry air and northwesterly modest shear profiles
across the area could also promote cold pools developing within
the complex. If this occurs, damaging winds up to 60 mph, hail
up to the size of quarters, and brief spin-up tornadoes would
all be possible. To account for this scenario, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is also in effect until 8 AM this morning,
though flooding still remains the main threat.


Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms west of Hwy 65 tonight:

The main brunt of the evolving thunderstorm complex should be
exiting our CWA by mid-morning, leaving remnant light to
moderate rain across the southern and eastern portions of the
CWA. As the day goes on and instability reinvigorates, a NW-SE
oriented band of showers and thunderstorms is possible in the
outflow/convergent wake of the thunderstorm complex. These would
not be expected to be widespread, creating only a 15-40% chance
of storms this afternoon.

After the brief lull in activity during the day, a Marginal to a
sliver of a Slight Risk or severe thunderstorms exists west of
Highway 65 for later this evening into the overnight hours. Most
00Z HREF members depict an MCS moving in from the west, though
there is still considerable uncertainty in location, timing, and
progged intensity. Instability will be plentiful for this
system (2000-2500+ J/kg MUCAPE), but shear will generally be
weaker with eastward extent. Therefore, the complex is expected
to be weakening as it enters our area. Nevertheless, the remnant
complex may still be capable of producing damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph, hail up to quarter size, and brief spin-up
tornadoes, especially as it reaches the MO/KS border. This
complex will then mark the end of rain chances for a couple
days.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Persistent heat enters the region for much of next week:

Mid- and upper-level geopotential heights will rise in the wake
of the system finally exiting the region. The resulting mid-
level ridge that builds into the area has >99.5th percentile
heights for this time of year according to NAEFS ESATs. This
will bring very warm temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
for Tuesday through Thursday. Furthermore, ensembles are coming
into agreement on the upper-end of the moisture spread with
ESATs progging the low-level moisture to be the greatest modeled
in the 30-year climatology for early June. NBM dewpoints are
modeled near 80 F in some spots, which will certainly make the
air feel like tomato soup. These above normal temperatures and
unprecedented early June humidity values will lead to Heat
Index values ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s
(reaching near 110 F in some spots), especially Tuesday.

While this is not uncommon heat for the Ozarks to experience, it
is rather atypical for early June as contextualized by our
"normal" max heat index of around 97 F for early June as
outlined by the CPC. With this being the first heat of the
season, NBM spreads forecasting it to be over multiple days, and
with warm nighttime temperatures in the 70s providing little
relief, heat impacts may be slightly heightened from normal
100-110 F heat index impacts. This is reflected with a
widespread Moderate to Major Risk for heat-related impacts,
especially Tuesday and Wednesday. This means the heat will
likely affect those without cooling or hydration. Extra care for
heat-related impacts should be exercised come next week.


Confidence increasing for additional rounds of rain end of week:

The exact longevity of the heat wave is still a bit in question
as ensemble clusters diverge a bit on shortwave and resulting
frontal boundary progressions Thursday and onward. Latest LREF
trends point to a cold front moving through Thursday and
Thursday night, bringing our next chance of rain (50-70%). Very
high moisture values ahead of the front would promote very high
CAPE values, which means a severe risk is not out of the
question for any system that moves through. ML NSSL/CSU guidance
do hint at a severe risk with the passage, which we will have to
monitor going forward.

Any system would "cool" things off to near normal for the rest
of the week. Clusters are still a bit divergent, though, and
there are hints at multiple progressions and regressions of the
frontal boundary into the weekend as a synoptic trough takes its
sweet old time to move through the Northern Plains. If this
occurs, the heat risk would be tempered a bit, but introduce
multiple chances of rain and storms through the weekend.
Attention would be turned to additional flooding and severe
threats that may evolve. Stay up to date with the forecast!


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Current radar imagery depicts bands of showers and thunderstorms
developing over the KS/MO/OK/AR corner region. Guidance suggests
these should congeal to a more widespread system that have a
75-95% chance of impacting the TAF sites directly. These storms
would have heavy downpours, restricting visibility to below a
mile at times. Secondary threats include wind gusts up to 50 kts
if the storms can become a line.

Any chance of rain/storms should exit the sites by 17-19Z,
leaving mainly chaotic cloud layers with 10-15 kt southerly
winds, sometimes gusting up to 20 kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price