022
FXUS63 KSGF 181938
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and tonight
  with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. The risk
  for severe storms Saturday is slightly less and more
  uncertain.

 -The severe risk Sunday is increasing with an enhanced risk
  across Central Missouri. Tornadoes, large hail and damaging
  winds are all possible with this system.

- A Flood Watch is in effect tonight through the weekend.
  Between 2-4 inches of rainfall with localized amounts up to 7
  inches, is likely across most areas this weekend due to
  multiple rounds of rainfall. This will cause an increase in
  creek and river levels. Flooding of low water crossings is
  likely.

- Additional rain chances (40-70%) return Tuesday through
  Thursday of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a deep southwest flow pattern from the
Pacific into Texas and up into the Ozarks region. The 12z KSGF
sounding showed a strong elevated mixed layer with around
800j/kg of convective inhibition. Partly cloudy skies have
allowed for temps to warm well into the 70s however clouds were
on the increase which may keep highs in check this afternoon.
The surface cold front was just beginning to enter Bourbon
County Kansas and was slowly moving southeast. Ahead of the
front, dewpoints have risen into the lower 60s with PW values
now around 1.2in. A few elevated showers have formed however the
cap will likely keep storms at bay until evening.

This Evening and Overnight: The front will move into the area
this evening and overall lift will increase and should force the
development of storms. When storms form along the front is in
question as the latest few runs of the CAMS are showing
development by 6-7pm along and just south of the I-44 corridor.
Forecast soundings for this time/location shows about 1500j/kg
of ML CAPE and 50kts of 0-6km shear. This CAPE/Shear combo along
with a large hail parameter around 4-8 suggests the potential
for large hail in the 1 inch to 1.75in range (up to golf ball).
This is a slight increase in hail size. Otherwise damaging winds
would be possible as well. Southwest surface winds will likely
keep the tornado threat very low.

Heading later into the evening and overnight (after 10pm), the
low level jet will ramp up south of the area and force
additional showers and storms to form behind the front from
Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and then moving into Missouri.
These storms would be elevated which would favor a hail threat
versus wind threat however any stronger updrafts could punch
through the inversion and produce locally damaging winds.

Of greater concern is the potential for flash flooding overnight
as both rounds of storms could move over the same areas. PW
values around 1.4-1.5in is around 200% of normal. Latest 12z
HREF guidance shows two potential narrow stripes of heavy
rainfall overnight (1-3 inches overnight). One area from SE
Kansas into west central Missouri and the other area along and
just southeast of I-44 from Barry County to Springfield to Dent
County. These heavier stripes of rainfall are hard to pin down
but we are confident they will occur. Flash flooding would
likely occur in these areas given high rainfall rates.

Saturday: The surface front will be near or just south of the
Missouri/Arkansas line however we expect additional light to
moderate rainfall spreading north into the area through the
day.HREF guidance shows about 0.25-1 inch of rainfall through
the day Saturday. By afternoon and evening, additional,
slightly heavier rainfall rates and thunderstorms may move up
from the south however confidence remains low in this scenario.
Instability is still in question and could limit the
thunderstorm and severe threat or reduce it to areas closer to
the Arkansas state line. Temps will likely be much cooler along
and north of I-44 with temps staying in the 50s there and 60s
south of I-44.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Saturday Night through Sunday: Main shortwave will begin to
lift northeast from the Texas panhandle into Kansas. Another
round of showers and storms looks to move through Saturday night
however we are beginning to become more concerned with the final
round of thunderstorms Sunday. Guidance has shifted slightly
west with the upper system and associated low/cold front. A warm
front looks to lift north through the area Sunday morning which
could place the area in the warm sector ahead of an approaching
cold front. Guidance suggests that the upper system becomes
negatively tilted as it lifts towards Missouri which will allow
for increased directional and speed shear across the area as the
front moves through. Depending on amount of instability, severe
thunderstorms with tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
could all be possible Sunday afternoon and evening, especially
along and east of Highway 65. An enhanced risk for severe storms
is being introduced across central Missouri Sunday, closer to
the triple point. Definently remain weather aware on Sunday.

Total Rainfall Amounts/Hydrology Impacts: No major changes to
expectations for total rainfall amounts through the weekend.
Latest HREF LPMM guidance (which only goes out to 7am Sunday)
has mean amounts of 2-4 inches. This does not include the Sunday
round therefore total amounts of 2-4 inches with localized
amounts of 5-7inches will occur. We think these amounts are
reasonable however exact location of the front will determine
where the max amounts occur. This amount of rainfall will likely
cause flash flooding of low water crossings along with an
overall increase in river levels. Latest HEFS guidance continues
to suggest that some rivers may approach minor flood stage with
this event.

Next Week: Latest ensemble data continues to be consistent in
bringing additional shortwaves into the area from the
west/southwest Tuesday through Thursday. NBM rainfall probs
continue to increase, especially Wednesday and Thursday and we
will need to monitor where this rainfall sets up given the heavy
rainfall from this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions will persist until around 00z when a cold front
approaches and shower and thunderstorm chances increase at the
sites. There could be several waves of thunderstorms overnight
however the thunder threat begins to decrease after 09z.
Ceilings and vis will lower overnight in the rainfall with MVFR
conditions likely. Gusty south winds will continue this
afternoon with a transition over to northerly winds tonight
however SGF and BBG could see variable conditions as the front
will be close by. All locations should see a northeast or east
wind by Saturday morning. Rain will likely continue Saturday
morning and into the next TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday evening
     for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield