425
FXUS63 KSGF 131930
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning across the entire area today through
  Sunday evening. Daily heat index values around 105 to 110.
  Minimal overnight relief with temperatures in the upper 70s to
  around 80.

- Low chances (5-20%) for a few isolated thunderstorms east of
  Highway 65 late this afternoon and evening. Brief heavy
  downpours and an isolated strong wind gust are the main
  hazards. Thunderstorm coverage will remain limited across the
  area and most locations will likely remain dry.

- Potential heat relief for portions of the area by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Current water vapor imagery looks like a wave breaking right
over southwest Missouri as a pronounced anti-cyclone churns over
the MoKsArOk region, aided by high-level outflow from an MCS
currently traversing Illinois (probably for the 4th time this
week). A surface stationary front continues to sit in line with
the ridge boundaries, stretching from north KS, across north MO,
and into IL/IN/KY.


Extreme Heat Warning continues through the weekend:

Current temperature readings across the area
tell the same story as the past few days with middle to upper
90s, and some areas reaching 100. Dewpoints ranging from the
upper 60s to lower 70s are leading to Heat Index values around
108 across the area as of 2 PM. Therefore, as temperatures climb
just a bit further, some areas may reach 110. Either way, the
Extreme Heat Warning continues across the area for high
confidence in most areas breaking 105 F for at least 4
consecutive days (some areas have already done this up until
now). These conditions are expected to last each day through
Saturday and Sunday.

The longevity of this level of heat, along with very high
nighttime lows (nearing 80 F in some areas) presents the
potential for extreme heat- related impacts. People have already
noted how the longevity of the heat have placed strain on air
conditioning systems, which increases the risk of becoming
without cooling. Therefore, be prepared for any heat- related
impacts, even if you have relatively "safe" air conditioning.
Check on those that may not have proper cooling capabilities,
especially those vulnerable to heat.


Low chances for isolated thunderstorms each day:

A field of cumulus clouds has begun to develop along and east of
Highway 63, as well as south of Highway 60 and east of Highway
65. The field east of Highway 63 appears to be within an area of
greater moisture (dewpoints nearing 71-74 as opposed to 68-70 in
other areas). Rap analysis suggests a pseudo-dryline in this
area due to southwesterly winds mixing across the Ozark Plateau
terrain. Our 12Z sounding this morning had capping (700 mb)
temperatures around 13C, which is a bit warmer than yesterday
(when storms formed), but a bit cooler than 2 days ago (when no
storms formed). With forecasted convective temperatures of
around 96-98 paired with subtle convergence along the pseudo-
dryline, a few isolated thunderstorms (10-20% chance) may break
through the weak cap this afternoon and into the evening. The
best chance for this occurring would be along and east of
Highway 63 where the best moisture is, however, potential exists
as far west of I-49, especially south of Highway 60 where
cumulus have been steadily growing. Latest WoFS paintballs do
put a few cells in our area, but since WoFS is not great before
convective initiation, this is taken with a grain of salt.

Any storm that is able to form will be capable of brief heavy
downpours and potentially isolated pockets of damaging winds as
low-level inverted-V soundings of 8-9 C/km lapse rates led to a
Microburst Parameter of 5-8 and moderate values of the Ozarks
Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index. The isolated nature of the
storms means many areas (and potentially all areas) will remain
dry.

As we progress through the weekend, isolated shower and
thunderstorm potential exists despite low probability of
precipitation. The air mass in place is not expected to modify
much, and dewpoints have consistently overachieved CAM guidance,
suggesting any capping portrayed by CAMs may be a bit too
overdone.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Potential for brief heat relief early next week:

The pattern begins to shift a bit after Sunday. Global ensembles
depict the mid- and upper-level ridge flattening, sagging the
jet stream and associated surface stationary front closer to our
area. As a result, temperatures may decrease and precipitation
chances may increase - at least for a day or two.

Deterministic models hint at a subtle shortwave moving just
northeast of the area Sunday night, which would force a cold
front through the area. This places 20-40% chances of rain over
the area Monday, with high temperatures noticeably cooler
ranging from 87 in central MO, to 98 along the southern MO
border. NBM temperatures spreads depict some uncertainty in
exactly where the front is positioned during peak heating
Monday, leading to high temperatures anywhere from the middle
80s to upper 90s for Springfield alone.

Model spread increases even more after Monday with 59% of 12Z
LREF members suggesting ridging to build back into the area,
while 41% of members show a greater geopotential height gradient
and northwesterly flow over our area. This leads to spreads in
temperatures and precipitation chances. For these days. Trends
in the forecast will continue to be monitored for if heat
tries to make a return, or if precipitation chances try to
increase before the end of meteorological summer.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Aviation conditions are expected to be rather steady state
through the period, with usual diurnal cycles of winds.
Southwesterly winds of 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts are
expected between 18-01Z and 14-18Z, with more south-
southwesterly winds at 8-12 kts between 01-14Z.

Clouds will be few and far between. An approximate 7 kft cu
field is possible at BBG and SGF between 19-02Z, otherwise,
cloud cover will mainly come in the form of leftover high clouds
from storms well to the north of TAF sites.

There is a very low chance (<10%) for an isolated shower or
storm near SGF and BBG, but confidence in anything is very low.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price