602
FXUS63 KSGF 230448
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1048 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the weekend, with highs near to above
  normal. Wind gusts near 30+ mph are expected Sunday.

- Rain chances increase into the middle part of next week.
  Uncertainty remains on the timing of highest rain chances.

- Increasing confidence on below normal temperatures returning
  mid next week into early December.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Remainder of Today-Tonight: Strong northwest flow continues to
hold across the region, with a chilly and dry day across the
Ozarks. Highs today will generally top out in the middle to
upper 40s along and north of Highway 60. Areas further south
should see highs reach into the lower 50s. However, its worth
noting a few locations may struggle to break upper 30s/lower 40s
in portions of central Missouri as a result of a lingering low-
level stratus deck. This area of clouds has been slow to clear
this morning into the early afternoon, but should gradually
dissipate into the late afternoon. Temperatures are anywhere
from 5 to 10+ degrees below normal for this time of year. For
tonight, winds become light and variable giving way to a cold
night. Lows tonight fall into the mid 20s to around freezing.
HREF probabilities of lows less than 30 degrees remain highest
across portions of central into south central Missouri,
especially within the low- lying areas and river valleys.

Saturday: The mid-level ridge begins to build east out of the
Rockies on Saturday, supporting increasing mid-level heights.
Expect surface winds to turn southerly on Saturday. Meanwhile,
850mb temperatures reach to around 12 to 14 C into Saturday
afternoon across the western half of the area. Local
climatology would suggest highs in the 60s. For this reason,
went with the NBM 75th percentile for highs on Saturday. Highs
will vary from upper 50s (east) to lower/middle 60s (west).
Drier weather persists through Saturday.

Sunday: The mid-level ridge gradually becomes suppressed into
Sunday, becoming more zonal in nature. As this occurs, a
shortwave translating through the Rockies into the Central
Plains will be the focus for a developing surface low. This
strengthening low across Kansas will support strong southerly
flow into the area, resulting in a warm and gusty day. Latest
NBM 50th percentile highlights widespread highs in the middle to
upper 60s. It is plausible a few locations push towards 70. A
look at NBM probabilities highlights a corridor across
southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri with 30-50% chances
for exceeding 70. Additional attention is focused on strong
southerly wind gusts. Guidance depicts a 45-50 knot low-level
jet nosing into the area during the afternoon. This could setup
a scenario where some clearing gives way to 40+ mph gusts mixing
down to the surface. NBM probabilities continue to show a
strong signal for wind gusts greater than 30 mph, around 60-90%,
along and west of Highway 65. Probabilities drop off to <30%
for wind gusts greater than 40 mph. Despite the warm and gusty
conditions, fire weather is expected to remain limited given the
increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low and
associated front.

The associated surface low and cold front move into the area
late Sunday night or Monday morning. There still remains some
variance on the exact timing of this passage. While there will
be some increase in low-level moisture, the mid to upper levels
remain rather dry and unfavorable for rain chances with the
passage. The forecast remains on track to keep light
rain/sprinkle chances <20% through Sunday night into Monday
morning across the eastern portions of the area. While this
scenario is favored at this time, an alternative scenario of a
slower/less progressive system may support better moisture
return and thus rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Monday:
Monday`s high temperature potential will depend on the timing of
the frontal passage, with highs expected to be warmer with
southeastward extent where the front arrives later in the day. A
temperature gradient oriented southwest-to-northeast will set up
across the CWA as the front moves through. Highs may only reach
the upper 40s to mid-50s behind the front (roughly along and
northwest of a Pittsburg KS-Osceola-Versailles line), while far
southeast Oregon County could approach mid-60s. The areas where
ensembles have highest discrepancies are generally along and
southeast of the I-44 corridor, with a difference of 8-9 degrees
(depending where you plop your point) between the NBM 25th and
75th percentiles. Cloud cover will decrease as the front moves
further southeast, with gusty NW winds between 20-25 mph. Lows
into Tuesday morning will be in the lower 20s atop and northeast
of the Salem plateau and in the mid- to upper 20s elsewhere.


Tuesday:
Temperatures decrease further into the 40s Tuesday, with a
tighter high temp spread than Monday. Expect daytime
temperatures in the low 40s in central Missouri increasing to
near 50 along the MO/AR border. Lows overnight into Wednesday
will dip down into the upper 20s/low 30s in the eastern Ozarks
and into central Missouri, with increasing cloud cover creeping
in from the southwest keeping temperatures warmer (mid-30s)
further southwest.


Leading up to Thanksgiving Day:

The forecast gets messy after that, with model guidance
providing insight into a few potential scenarios moreso than
the most likely scenario for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

The clear, broadbrushed signals regardless of ensemble choice:

1. Zonal flow gets disrupted by a shortwave pushing off the
Rockies, bringing widespread precip chances between 30-60%
Wednesday and Thursday.

2. It will get cold after the mid-week disturbance
moves through and a pattern shift brings a polar jet and
anomalously low upper-level heights to the central US. November
will end with temperatures 5-10 degrees below-normal, with
"normal" temperatures being upper 40s-low 50s.

Most GEFS and European ensemble members have begun trending
towards a faster, more intense shortwave ejection than the
multi-model mean, while the Canadian ensemble members tend to
favor a slower, weaker outcome. Run-to-run variability is
high, alongside existing timing, location, and intensity
questions between models, so faith in announcing Thanksgiving
Day forecast details is low at this time. It will likely take
another couple model run cycles before model consensus
stabilizes as the high-impact, highly unpredictable atmospheric
river storm system on the west coast plays itself out. For
those reasons, it is highly encouraged to check back on the
forecast regularly between now and the holiday.

Here`s the choices:

Scenario 1: Faster System
A faster system would increase precipitation chances on
Wednesday and clear out precipitation to the east earlier on
Thursday.

Scenario 2: Slower System
A slower system would have later precipitation onset times on
Wednesday and keep precipitation in the area longer on Thursday.

The last forecast item of note is precipitation type.
Guidance is not particularly reliable right now, so it`s
difficult to rule a brief frozen precipitation mix out of the
forecast completely right now in areas furthest into central
Missouri during the early hours on Thursday morning. But...
highest chances of snow right now are a small bullseye of 10-15%
chance of snow, in an area with only a 30-45% chance of
receiving precipitation at all. In contrast, there is a 30-45%
chance of rain in the same area at the same time. So, count on
a p-type of rain with any precipitation chances, but with such
cold air coming in behind the system, we`re monitoring the
trends and highly encourage you to do the same. No holiday
travel impacts are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Upper level northwesterly flow will allow surface high pressure
to build into the region this evening and into Saturday
afternoon. This will allow for light and variable winds through
Saturday morning with a shift to light southerly winds by the
afternoon. With clear skies, VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Hatch