103
FXUS63 KSGF 280542
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for locations along and
  south of a Joplin to Springfield to Salem Missouri line
  through 7 PM today. Heat index values around 105 to 115
  degrees are expected.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for locations north of a Joplin
  to Springfield to Salem Missouri line through 7 PM today. Heat
  index values up to 105 degrees are possible.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move southeast
  through portions of the area today. A few showers and storms
  will also be possible across extreme southeastern Kansas and
  far southern Missouri tonight into early Wednesday.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-70%) will
  occur at times Wednesday through Friday, before dissipating
  east on Saturday. Localized heavy rainfall is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Today-Tonight:
The area remains locked in under a strong upper-level ridge this
afternoon, supporting unseasonably hot and humid conditions. The
headline remains similar to the past several days of the heat
wave, with temperatures into the upper 90s to around 100. Add in
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and heat index values
approach 100 to 110 areawide. Minimal overnight relief is
expected with lows in the middle to upper 70s. An Extreme Heat
Warning remains in effect through 7am Tuesday morning.

Otherwise, dry weather looks to persist through much of tonight
ahead of an approaching front on Tuesday. There may be enough
support for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, though chances
remain low at 10-20%. These chances are focused along and north
of Highway 54 into early Tuesday morning. Most areas remain
dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Tuesday-Thursday:
The upper-level ridge will gradually begin to retreat westward
into Tuesday with an approaching cold front sinking south into
the area. Ahead of the front, hot and humid conditions persist.
Highs are progged to reach into the lower/middle 90s (north) to
upper 90s/near 100 (south). Additionally, heat index values push
100 to 110 once again. It is reasonable that an upgrade to an
Extreme Heat Warning may be warranted across southeast KS into
southern MO if temperatures/dewpoints trend a bit higher. This
will be our last day of the widespread heat wave.

As front approaches, moisture influx increases into the region.
This should support scattered shower and thunderstorm chances
(10-30%) on Tuesday afternoon and evening, though there remains
some uncertainty on the extent of coverage. CAMs remain
divergent on solutions, with only a handful showing scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the area. It is reasonable that
forcing and moisture should be sufficient for at least some
coverage of PoPs, particularly along and north of Interstate
44. Likewise, this area has lower confidence for reaching Heat
Advisory criteria given the potential PoPs and associated cloud
cover. Wind shifts occur through the afternoon and evening, with
slightly cooler weather filtering into the area behind the
passage.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (20-50%) take shape
into Tuesday night and Wednesday, and persist through Thursday.
This is associated with the area being in the eastern periphery
of the ridge, with active northwest flow over the region. A
series of shortwave translate through the pattern and override
an existing boundary. Severe weather is not expected with any of
the systems. However, localized heavy rainfall remains possible
given PWATs approaching 1.8 to 2.0+ inches. This will be a
scenario where some locations may remain completely dry, while
another location sees a quick 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. Given
this localized threat, WPC captures our area in a Marginal (1
of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Tuesday. We are not
expecting all day washouts Tuesday through Thursday. Otherwise,
more seasonable temperatures return through mid to late week.
Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with perhaps some middle
90s sneaking into southeast KS and far southwest MO.

Thursday Night-Sunday:
By Thursday night, a stronger system moves into the region.
Ensemble guidance still varies on timing and location of this
system, but the general consensus is for increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances (40-70%) overnight Thursday into Friday.
Likewise to mid-week, the environment will be supportive of
localized heavy rainfall that may lead to a few instances of
flash flooding. Rain chances look to persist through Friday
night, before diminishing to the east through Saturday. In
general, a cooler weekend is in the forecast with highs ranging
from lower to upper 80s

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Light southerly winds and a few passing high clouds will occur
across the area overnight. A front will move south through the
area with winds becoming more westerly this morning then north
to northwesterly this afternoon. Winds will then become light
and variable this evening into tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are occurring across portions of
north central Kansas into Nebraska currently. This activity
will continue to track south into the area today. It is possible
a few isolated showers occur this morning but the better
chances for this activity at the TAF sites will be this
afternoon into early this evening. A brief period of MVFR
conditions will be possible with any thunderstorms and heavier
showers today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-089.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ082-
     083-088-090>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Wise