872
FXUS63 KSGF 161120
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
620 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area through 8pm
  Monday. Daily afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105
  degrees through at least Monday.

- Rain chances remain less than 30 percent until next Tuesday
  and Wednesday. Temperatures also look to drop back closer to
  average by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Upper air analysis
showed the center of the mid level high has now moved into
eastern Kansas and Missouri and has strengthened (597dm). The
00z KSGF sounding continued to exhibit a low level inverted V
profile with late day mixing. Dews did drop into the middle to
upper 60s during the day but have since increased to around 70
early this morning. High temps yesterday reached the upper 90s
across most of the area with heat index values of 100 to 105
degrees almost area wide. It remained very mild early this
morning with several locations still hovering around 80
degrees. MCS activity across Iowa and Illinois has weakened
however it has sent a weak boundary south into central and
eastern Missouri.

Today through Tonight: Expectations are for the mid level high
to remain strong over the area today. 850mb temps were measured
at 23C last evening and expect them to stay around there which
conditional climatology studies suggest median temps around 97
with 75th percentile around 99. Given observed temps yesterday
and increasingly dry conditions across the area we are
confident high temps in the upper 90s will occur. Areas with
dry/brown grass and vegetation could reach 100.

Dewpoints continue to be overly forecasted by the NBM along the
Ozark Plateau however its not as significant as previous days.
We will continue to lower dewpoints closer to short term model
guidance (middle/upper 60s). However, heat index values around
100 are still likely across most of the area. In coordination
with surrounding offices to the east, we have expanded the Heat
Advisory for the entire area through Monday evening.

The one item to watch today will be either that weak leftover
boundary northeast of the area or subtle cooling of the mid
levels also northeast of the area. A few high res models
develop afternoon showers and storms with storm motions then
taking them southwest towards the area. The overall synoptic setup
is not conducive to anything more than an isolated pop up
shower or storm and have kept PoPs less than 20 percent. These
20% PoPs are for areas east of Highway 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Sunday through Monday: Ensembles suggest that the mid level
high will likely remain over the area. This will likely lead to
a persistence forecast. We continue to go with 10-20 PoPs east
of Highway 65 Sunday afternoon however this is likely generous
given the synoptic setup. Of note however are a few cams
(especially the HRRR) showing a little more scattered showers
and storms Sunday afternoon across areas east of Springfield.
Not seeing a strong lifting mechanism however we will monitor
trends for any need for increased pops Sunday afternoon.

Mean 850mb temps will likely remain around 22-23C therefore we
will continue to dry out with daily highs in the middle to upper
90s. A good rule of thumb for this area is that you typically
need dry vegetation to reach 100 degrees (the brown grass rule).
Therefore as we dry out further we should see an increased
chance to come close to or reach that number. To put it into
context, the normal high for middle August is 90 therefore we
will be 5-10 degrees above that. Heat index values around 100 to
locally 105 will occur each afternoon however areas that dry
out faster (mainly east of Springfield and higher areas of the
plateau) could stay in the upper 90s. The other factor of this
heat are the overnight lows staying mild in middle to upper 70s. The
Heat Risk tool continues to show the area in a moderate to
major category therefore this will really affect anyone without
cooling/hydration as well as health systems and industries. The
Heat Advisory continues through 8pm Monday.

Tuesday through Friday: Ensembles suggest that the mid level
high will slowly begin to retrograde west beginning Tuesday.
This could drop some energy into the area from the north as
early as Tuesday. Ensemble cluster analysis is showing some
consensus in light precip potential mid week and pops are
currently around 30 to 40 percent Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Depending on any precip Tuesday, we could experience another hot
day with current NBM high temps in the upper 90s. If this does
indeed pan out then we may need to extend the Heat Advisory
through Tuesday however confidence is too low at this time. It
then appears that brief and weak northerly flow could allow for
a few days of temps closer to normal and lower humidity late
week (upper 80s and low 90s).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with passing high clouds. Cumulus will increase during
the afternoon with a low chance (less than 20 percent) of a
shower or storm east of SGF and BBG. Winds will remain out of
the south, generally less than 15kts however JLN may come close
during the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield