217
FXUS63 KSGF 191859
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
159 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue through the weekend.

- Elevated fire weather conditions expected on Monday.

- 20-70% chances for light rain Monday night into Tuesday.
  Probabilities favor amounts less than a tenth of an inch.

- Unseasonably warm to near record temperatures Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show an upper low cut-off from the main
flow over Arizona, with southwesterly flow ahead of the low from
the southern plains into the mid Mississippi valley. The main
upper flow remains well to the north along the US/Canada border.
Dry air continues over the area with no cloud in the CWA in the
visible imagery. Temperatures have rebounded from a chilly start
this morning and into the low to mid 70s.

Tonight through Sunday night: We will continue with the dry air
mass over the area bringing a clear sky. Afternoon humidity
levels will dip into the 20s and 30s, but lighter winds will
keep most of the fire weather category in the limited, with only
spotty elevated conditions. Lows tonight will be in the low to
mid 40s with highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 70s and lows
Sunday night back in the low to mid 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions on Monday afternoon: The upper
level low stuck out in the southwest U.S. will begin to get
kicked out to the east with another system pushing into the
wests coast on Sunday, and then push into the plains on Monday.
Winds will pick up a bit more on Monday with some gusts of 15 to
20 mph possible, while we keep the low afternoon humidity
levels. This will bring about a more widespread elevated fire
weather potential over the western half of the CWA.

Rain chances Monday night into Tuesday: The upper level wave
will shift east-northeast across the area Monday night into
Tuesday and will bring light rain chances to the area(20-70%).
Precipitation amounts look to be on the light side however, with
probabilities suggesting generally less than a tenth of an inch
of rain with this system.

Unseasonably warm to near record temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday: Behind this upper wave and in advance of a more
southeasterly moving shortwave and surface front, temperatures
will likely warm back into the low to mid 80s. This will bring
some temperatures close to record highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday(see climate section). The front will push through and
bring cooler temperatures to the area on Wednesday.

Some larger model differences start to creep into the area for
the middle to end of next week leading to some uncertainty with
temperatures and is also leading to low end precipitation
chances at this time.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the 18z TAFS, a very dry air mass will remain in place over
the area which will keep VFR conditions in place. A light
southeast to south wind is expected at 10 kts or less.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024


Record High Temperatures:

Tuesday October 22:
KSGF: 85/2020   Forecast: 82
KJLN: 86/1947   Forecast: 83

Wednesday October 23:
KSGF: 88/1939   Forecast: 82
KJLN: 86/2022   Forecast: 83
KVIH: 83/2023   Forecast: 78
KUNO: 84/1963   Forecast: 81



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Lindenberg