493
FXUS63 KSGF 141804
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
104 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area
  today through Sunday evening. Daily heat index values around
  105 to 110 will continue to occur during the afternoon and
  early evening hours. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the
  middle 70s to around 80.

- Low chances (5-20%) for an isolated thunderstorm north of
  Highway 54 late tonight and again during the afternoon and
  evening hours Saturday. Brief heavy downpours and an isolated
  strong wind gust are the main hazards. Thunderstorm coverage
  will remain limited across the area and most if not all
  locations will likely remain dry.

- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk
  Sunday evening/night into Monday morning for portions of the
  area. Damaging wind gusts are the main risk along with locally
  heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a strong upper level high
centered just south of the area. The 12Z KSGF sounding continues
to show warm air aloft with a 700mb temp of 12C and a 850mb temp
of 23C. This is keeping rain and storm chances north of the
area with mostly sunny skies. As of early afternoon, temps have
already climbed into the middle to upper 90s with heat indicies
around 100. While southerly wind gusts around 20-25mph
continue, dewpoints still remain around 70 degrees.

Extreme Heat Continues: Conditions this afternoon and again
Saturday will be quite similar with warm 850mb temps supporting
highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. The warmest temps look to
occur across southeast Kansas and western Missouri where highs
in the low 100s are common. This region continues to be the
driest and has allowed for these higher temps to be achieved.
High res guidance does indicate that dews should begin to slowly
drop into the upper 60s during the afternoons however some
locations may remain in the low 70s. This will keep heat
indicies in the 105-110 range during peak heating. Overnight
lows again will remain very warm with little relief occuring.
Therefore the Extreme Heat Warnings continue.

Very Low Rain Chances: Locations north of Highway 54 (Benton-
Morgan counties) will be on the southern edge of the storm track
overnight and again Saturday night as the low level jet
develops and veers north and west of the area. Isolated showers
and storms may graze those counties however chances remain
below 20 percent and most places will remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Heat and Thunderstorm Chances Sunday: The ridge looks to flatten
a bit and should allow for a front to sag into the area along
with shortwave energy. Latest guidance suggests that a front
and perhaps some ongoing elevated storms may be ongoing early
Sunday morning to our northwest. Our environment on Sunday looks
to be similar to the previous few days however mid level temps
should begin to cool. This cooling aloft, along with the
forcing of the front should allow for the development of
afternoon/evening showers and storms. We will need to assess the
mesoscale environment in future updates for exact storm hazards
however sufficient instability and weak shear would support a
pulse severe setup with damaging winds the most likely hazard.
If storm motions are slow enough then localized flooding would
be a concern. Soils continue to dry out therefore flash flood
guidance is high.

Temps look to heat up into the upper 90s to around 100 again on
Sunday with heat indicies around 100-110 degrees and the
Extreme Heat Warning continues.

Heat Continues Next Week: For Sunday through Wednesday, there
is less confidence in the pattern as the ridge looks to be close
to the area to where temps may surge back up, especially mid
week. However we may remain close enough that precip chances
increase. At this point, the Extreme Heat Warning most likely
will not be needed Monday and Tuesday however we will need to
monitor temp trends south of I-44 where heat indicies will be
highest. Wednesday looks to feature the next warmest day with
highs in the upper 90s to around 100 and the NWS Heat Risk tool
showing an increased area of "Major" risk for heat sensitive
groups.

After Wednesday there seems to be a little more confidence
as ensembles are in better agreement that the ridge will slide
west of the area, back towards the Rockies. This would place our
area in northwest flow aloft with the potential for highs to
drop closer to average and perhaps increased precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the period.
Surface winds will increase this afternoon out of the south to
southwest with gusts to 25kts at JLN. Weak low level wind shear
is expected at SGF and JLN late tonight into Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield