704
FXUS63 KSGF 041743
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Normal summertime conditions expected for holiday weekend
  with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and Heat Index values
  between 90 and 100.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (10-30%) along and
  west of Highway 65 for Independence Day into Saturday.

- Additional 30-60% rain chances Sunday through the middle of
  next week. Highest chances in the afternoon and evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Through Tonight: Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure
are present across the region, with subtle weak energy undercutting
the flow. The presence of this weak forcing may support a few
isolated showers or thunderstorms later today. Otherwise,
expect some morning fog over portions of the lakes and rivers,
quickly burning off after sunrise. A muggy day expected for
Independence Day, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 in
addition to dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will
support maximum afternoon heat index values in the middle to
upper 90s. A scattered cumulus field develops through the late
morning and afternoon, with a handful of CAMs highlighting
isolated showers and a stray thunderstorm by late afternoon into
the evening. This activity would primarily be driven by daytime
heating, and pulse like in nature. However, the presence of
large scale subsidence and capping should limit overall coverage
and chances. The highest chances (10-30%) are focused along and
west of Highway 65, with the timing between 4 to 10 pm. Heavy
downpours would accompany any of the activity that develops.
Most locations remain dry through the entire afternoon and
evening. Lows tonight fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with
minimal cloud cover expected at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Saturday: Low chances (10-30%) for isolated showers and
thunderstorms persists into Saturday. Highs in the upper 80s to
near 90 can be expected areawide.

Sunday-Monday: As we progress into the later part of the weekend
and early next week, a subtle break down in the ridge occurs
across the region. This will support a zonal to northwest flow
pattern developing, with a series of shortwaves progged to
translate through the flow. This introduces a bit higher rain
chances with a frontal boundary settling into or near the area.
Rain chances are upwards of 30-60% on Sunday and Monday. There
remains some uncertainty on the exact extent of coverage as
slight differences in the timing/location/intensity of features
could impact the forecast. Nonetheless, will continue to
advertise the highest chances during the afternoon and evening
hours each day. The environment will be favorable for localized
heavy rainfall given the high moisture content in this airmass
regime, with PWATS around 1.8 to 2.0 inches. High temperatures
remain around normal for early July, in the middle to upper 80s
into early next week.

Tuesday-Thursday: Additional rain chances (20-50%) persist into
the middle of next week. This supports the signal for above
normal precipitation persisting into mid-July. However, there is
no given day at this time that appears to be a complete washout.
Stay updated on the forecast for additional details as they
become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Predominant VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
There is a ~20% chance for isolated showers and storms this
afternoon, but coverage is too low to include in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Titus