316
FXUS63 KSGF 200003
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
703 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area through 8 PM
  for Heat Index values above 100, though outflow from remnant
  storms may keep some areas cooler.

- 20-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  and evening. Highest chances along and east of Highway 63.
  Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk exists for wind gusts up to 60
  mph.

- Near average temperatures and dry for the rest of the week
  with the potential for below average temperatures late in the
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Current conditions out here in southwest Missouri/southeast
Kansas have been quickly evolving and changing. Earlier this
morning, a remnant thunderstorm complex collapsed and sent an
outflow boundary surging through the area, bringing 15-30
minutes of gusty winds, along with cooler temperatures within
the cold pool. Around the Nevada/Stockton areas, temperatures
are in the 80s. While the Springfield area is still approaching
the middle 90s, dewpoints have noticeably dropped to the lower
to middle 60s, keeping Heat Index values below 100. The cooler
and drier air within this strong cold pool has kept conditions
stable west of the outflow boundary, which has settled around
the Highway 63 corridor. Along and east of this corridor,
scattered showers and thunderstorms have already developed as
higher moisture content and warmer temperatures (with Heat Index
values above 100) have remained available for thunderstorm
fuel.

Meanwhile, a weak mid- and upper-level shortwave trough axis is
progressing through the Ohio River Valley on the periphery of
pronounced ridging over the west CONUS. A weak surface cold
front is associated with this wave, currently sitting over
north-central MO/KS, stretching up westward into the Northern
Plains, and up eastward into the Great Lakes.


Marginal Risk for severe storms with wind gusts up to 60 mph:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of the
outflow boundary along Highway 63 are expected to continue
through the afternoon and into the evening. As of right now,
these storms are sub-severe. However, as daytime heating
progresses, low-level lapse rates will steepen to 8.5-9.5 C/km
as forecasted by rapid-refresh models. As with the past few
days, this along with dry air aloft, and a moist layer in the
lower mid-levels will give the capability for any storm to have
potentially severe downburst winds up to 60 mph.

Storm potential within the aforementioned cold pool is still a
bit uncertain, though all signs point to very limited chances
for development. And if there is development, severe chances
seem to be much lower. This is due to the cooler more stable
conditions and well lower dewpoints in the lower 60s to middle
60s (for reference, the forecast was lower 70s). However, it is
August, so re-destabilization can still occur rather quickly before
sunset comes around. The chance is still there (15-30%), though
conditions point to a much more limited risk than along and
east of the Highway 63 corridor (40-60%).

As hi-res and rapid-refresh models have ingested this cold pool,
the trend has indeed been for thunderstorms to stay east of the
cold pool. However, there is a signal for redevelopment later
this evening along the I-44 corridor as the weak cold front
north of here sags southward through the area. Conditions and
trends will continue to be monitored to evaluate whether this
redevelopment seems like a valid solution, so for now, continue
to maintain a 20-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the area through midnight tonight.

As the front slowly moves through, some lingering sub-severe
shower and thunderstorm chances may linger along the Missouri-
Arkansas border Wednesday morning (15-25% chance), though models
have consistently trended further south with each passing run,
so it is more likely most the area is dry Wednesday with cooler
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s behind the front.


Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM this evening:

The Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire at 8 PM this
evening with cooler temperatures expected behind the front.
While areas east of the aforementioned outflow boundary have
Heat Index values above 100, areas behind it may struggle to
achieve this threshold. Nevertheless, with the heat stretch
ending this evening, no changes to the headlines will be made.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Near average temperatures and dry for the rest of the week:

Two cold fronts are progged to force their way through the area
during the 7-day forecast period. The first will be tonight
through Wednesday night. This front will be rather weak,
bringing mainly drier air and temperatures back to near normal.
NBM spreads are thin, showing high confidence in temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday through Saturday with lows
in the middle 60s. With the drier air behind the front, rain
chances are expected to be low through this period.


Potential for below average temperatures early next week:

The second cold front will be much stronger as global ensembles
hone in on a very dynamic and deep trough for August`s
standards diving into the eastern CONUS. According to ECMWF
ESATs, the jet streak speeds associated with the trough is
greater than the 99.5th percentile for late August. This will
surge through the stronger cold front Sunday, dropping
temperatures even more early next week, with a good chance for
below normal temperatures. The CPC has a 70-90% chance for the
Missouri Ozarks to see below normal temperatures between August
25th and 29th. While the chance for below normal temperatures is
high, there are still some uncertainties in the depth and
intensity of the cold shot of air owing to model differences in
the shape, orientation, and extent of the trough. NBM 25th-75th
percentile spreads range high temperatures from the mid-70s to
the mid-80s, with the NBM deterministic hovering over the lower
end of that range--contributing to the forecast highs in the
middle to upper 70s Tuesday. Nevertheless, the upper-end of that
range in the middle 80s still constitutes as "below normal" for
late August.

15-30% chances for rain do return early next week, though model
differences are still to high to comment on any exact details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Additional storms will be possible at KSGF this evening, but
currently chances are less than 15% so left that out of the TAF.
Additional isolated showers and storms will be possible at KBBG
on Wednesday, but confidence is limited at this time. Otherwise
VFR conditions are expected to persist.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Titus