700
FXUS63 KSGF 101747
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move northeast
  across portions of southeastern Kansas into central Missouri
  through the area the rest of the overnight hours into morning.
  The activity will then start to move slowly to the southeast
  this morning into this afternoon. Additional scattered storms
  will be possible across far southern/south central MO this
  afternoon/early evening.

- There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for isolated strong to
  severe thunderstorms across south central Missouri this
  afternoon/early evening.

- Locally heavy rainfall is also expected the rest of the
  overnight into this morning across portions of southeastern
  Kansas into central MO as showers and storms continue to
  develop and track over the same locations.

- Heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s Saturday into
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have developed from central Kansas
into central Missouri early this morning. This activity is
developing in an area of 500 to 1500 J/kg of uncapped MUCAPE.
Deep layer shear is weaker around 20kt and will weaken
overnight. This activity is also elevated in nature and severe
risk low with this activity overnight, but a few storms across
southeastern KS/western Missouri could have some gusty winds
and small hail. The upper level trough is moving east out of the
northern plains early this morning and will not push the
activity south much the next several hours. Precipitable water
values are around 2" in these locations. With the lift and
uncapped MUCAPE remaining in the same locations scattered
showers and storms should continue to develop across
southeastern Kansas into Central Missouri overnight. Instability
is weaker to the southeast with more of a cap so do not expect
the activity to move south the next several hours. HREF LPMM
data is shower the potential for localized rainfall amounts of
2-4" with this activity early this morning where storms can
train over the same locations across southeastern Kansas into
western Missouri.

Closer to sunrise into this morning the upper level trough will
start to push the front and this activity to the south.
Instability will be weaker to the southeast so overall this
activity will be weakening, but there will be enough lift for
showers and embedded thunderstorms to occur across the rest of
the area this morning but rainfall rates will likely decrease
to the southeast. This activity should end by around
midday/early afternoon. The front will bring a colder air mass
to the area but will be slower to move through south central
Missouri where highs in the 90s will once again be possible.
Else where highs the upper 70s to the middle 80s are expected.
Instability will increase with the heating of the day this
afternoon/early afternoon across south central MO on to the
south. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible, and a few
strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging wind
gusts the main risk. This activity should end my the mid evening
hours.

Tonight into Friday morning an upper level shortwave trough will
move east through the region and showers and some embedded
storms will likely develop mainly along and southeast of I-44. A
few showers and storms could linger into Friday afternoon/early
evening across portions of the eastern Ozarks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

An upper level ridge will build over the plains this weekend
allowing highs to warm into the upper 80s to the middle 90s
Saturday and Sunday.

The region will be in an upper level northwest flow pattern this
weekend with the ridge to the east of the area. The models are
showing an upper level disturbance moving through the northwest
flow Friday night into Saturday morning and again Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible ahead of the disturbance. There are still questions on
the track of the disturbance and convection and what portions of
the area will be impacted. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible if a complex of showers and storms can develop and move
through the area.

The ensemble model members show and upper level trough and cold
front moving out of the plains by the middle of next week.
However, the models differ on the track and how far south the
front moves. Some models keep the front north of the area while
others bring the front through the area. If the front remains
north, highs in the 90s could continue into the middle of next
week, if the front moves further south highs in the 80s and some
shower and thunderstorm chances will occur.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Light showers (and possibly a thunderstorm at KBBG) will
continue to push southeast this afternoon and evening.
Additional showers and potential for MVFR ceilings are possible
late tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Titus