255
FXUS63 KSGF 210751
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
251 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will range from the upper 80s northeast of
  Springfield to the 90s elsewhere into the weekend. Heat
  indicies in the upper 90s to around 100 southwest of
  Springfield.

- Marginal risk for severe storms northwest of Springfield late
  tonight into Saturday morning. Periodic, scattered rain
  chances (20-40%) will then occur on a daily basis Saturday
  through early next week. Many locations will remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The region remains influenced by a lob of the high pressure over
the Great Lakes region. Some cloud cover was moving over the
Ozarks from a storm complex moving across Kansas early this
morning. Rainfall from this system is expected to remain mainly
west of the Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas, though some
locations may see a shower or two from Pittsburg kansas to
Joplin and west but most areas will remain dry.

Today should see a slight increase in high temperatures compared
to yesterday, especially southwest of Springfield where a few
locations could approach 100 degrees. Dewpoints in the lower to
middle 60s will keep heat indicies generally at or below 100
degrees. An increase in mid and high clouds should arrive by
late afternoon and evening as another disturbance moves down
towards the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The upper level pattern is forecast by the synoptic and
ensembles to be stuck in a western ridge, eastern trough with
the Ozarks under the influence of upper level northwesterly
flow and on the northeast periphery of the ridge. While this
pattern can be dry, any disturbances that slide down and over
the region can bring occasional rain chances.

One such disturbance is expected to move over the Ozarks late
this evening into early Saturday. NBM precipitation chances have
remained in the 20-40% range with the main uncertainty on rain
placement. The SPC has included the far northwest portion of
our area in a marginal risk for late tonight into Saturday
morning, though the latest outlook pushed the Marginal risk a
bit to the north. Confidence is pretty low with system and
additional updates are likely. Ensembles suggest additional
shortwaves dropping down Sunday through Wednesday which will
keep daily rain chances going, albeit on the low side of
probabilities.

The one thing that is expected to continue despite any rain
chances is the summer time heat. Thank to this, and the limited
rain over the past 1 to 2 weeks, increasing drought (D0 and D1)
occurred this weak. This potential, flash drought, may aid in
highs reaching into the 90s across most of the area this
weekend into early next week. Locations west and southwest of
of Springfield will be the hottest with highs around 100.

There will be the need to keep an eye on afternoon mixing since
this could/should keep heat indicies below 100. However if we
start seeing higher values then heat headlines could return,
especially given the prolonged nature of the heat. The Heat Risk
tool does show pockets of the major category across the far
southwest corner of Missouri this weekend into next week. The
latest CPC outlook for late August into early September favors
lean in the chances towards above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

High pressure will remain in control of the regions weather
through today with VFR flight conditions expected through the
period. Few to scattered middle to high clouds will move over
the region but will have little if any impacts.

Surface winds will remain light and generally northeasterly
though KSGF may see some southeasterly winds early this
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch