844
FXUS63 KSGF 311700
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will move across portions of the area west
  of a Branson to Springfield to Osage Beach line and especially
  west of I-49 at times today.

- There are 20-60% chances for showers and isolated
  thunderstorms across portions of the area at times Monday into
  Tuesday.

- Below-average temperatures are likely through the beginning of
  September.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

An upper level shortwave trough is over the northern Plains
early this morning and will slowly move to the southeast today
into Monday night. Some isolated sprinkles/light rain showers
are occurring across portions of the area early this morning
with better coverage of light rain shower northwest of the area
in Kansas. The showers across Kansas will move east this morning
and will move into portions of the area mainly northwest of a
Pittsburg, Kansas to Warsaw, Missouri line. This activity will
bring only a few hundredths of an inch to one quarter of an
inch of rainfall this morning. Southeast of this line some
isolated sprinkles/light showers will remain possible as well.
The activity will decrease later this morning, then additional
scattered showers will be possible later this afternoon into
tonight west of a Branson to Springfield to Osage Beach line
and especially west of I-49 as upper level energy moves across
the area ahead of the shortwave. The better upper level support
and instability will remain west of the area so overall the
activity will weaken as it moves east completely dissipating
over the eastern portions of the area. Instability will be very
limited today so most of the area will not be impacted by any
lightning, but there may be just enough instability for an
isolated rumble of thunder along and west of I-49 late this
afternoon into tonight.

Highs will range from the middle/upper 70s across southeastern
Kansas and west central Missouri to the middle 80s across south
central tonight. Winds will be out of the southeast today and
could see some gusts up to around 15 mph at times this
afternoon.

The shortwave trough will move south across the central Plains
on Monday and across the region Monday night into Tuesday.
Scattered showers will again develop and move across the area at
times Monday morning through Monday night. Will likely be non
stop rain all day for any given spot, but multiple scattered
showers could impact the same locations through the day.
Instability will again be limited across area the area but
there may be just enough for a rumble of thunder or two at
times Monday afternoon and evening west of Highway 65. Rainfall
amounts will be light with up to one quarter of an inch
possible. Below normal temperature will occur again on Monday as
highs warm into the middle 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Scattered rain showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will
continue into Tuesday as the shortwave trough moves across the
region. An upper level low will move out of the northern Plains
into the Great Lakes region during the middle to the end of the
week. The low will push a cold front south through the region
Wednesday into Thursday. Additional scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front.

Highs in the upper 70s expected on Tuesday and Wednesday and
some middle 80 readings could be possible across portions of the
area on Wednesday. A cooler air mass will move over the area on
Thursday behind the front with highs expected to warm into the
upper 60s to the middle 70s. Lows Thursday and Friday mornings
will cool into the upper 40s to the lower 50s, and few of the
cooler spots across the eastern Ozarks could dip into the lower
40s by Friday morning. There is potential for some record lows
to occur Friday morning, see the Climate section for more
details. The low will move off Friday into next weekend and we
will likely see highs return to the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A few light showers/sprinkles were occurring mainly over extreme
southeast Kansas into far western MO including near the JLN
forecast terminal. Will go with prob30 groups for both SGF/JLN
this afternoon for light showers but keep conditions in VFR for
now. Mid level VFR ceilings will continue tonight into Monday. A
light east to southeast wind at 10 kts or less is expected
through the period.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

September 4:
KSGF: 66/2008


Record Low Temperatures:

September 5:
KSGF: 47/1974
KVIH: 44/1902
KUNO: 44/1997

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Lindenberg