360
FXUS63 KSGF 240000
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures and mostly dry for today, with only
  limited chances for light showers (<25% chance).

- Below average temperatures expected through next week with highs
  in the 70s to lower 80s.

- 30-50% rain chances Monday and Tuesday for the southwestern
  corner of Missouri and southeastern corner of Kansas. Then,
  30-70% rain chances for much of the Ozarks Thursday and
  onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows a cold front pushing through
our area this afternoon. This front has brought a few sprinkles
and clouds with it. There is a 15-25% for rain from now until 8
PM as the front moves through. There is a bit of convection
occurring over eastern KS that may push into SE KS. There is a
corridor of 1500 J/KG MUCAPE in that area that is helping to
produce a few lightning strikes. Severe weather isn`t expected
today and far SE KS and SW MO have the best chance of seeing
convection. Clouds start to clear out this evening and
temperatures will dip into the 50s tonight with light northerly
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The cold air advection will start to filter in on Sunday and
really start to filter in on Monday. The large mid-level trough
that moves through the area will allow cooler air to settle
into the state for the start of next week as well as multiple
chances for rain to occur. Though, it`s important to point out
that the rainfall we receive next week won`t necessarily bust
the drought. This is especially true as the drier solution seems
to be winning out for Monday/Tuesday. For example, some models
have these systems trending too far south and have most of the
area missing out on the rain. As of right now, the forecast is
holding steady showing SE KS and SW MO having the highest
chances for rain with this upcoming pattern change as they sit
at 30-50% for the start of next week. That area will have to be
monitored for excessive rainfall if they receive multiple rounds
of rain in the same areas as they are outlined in a Marginal
Risk (1/4). Latest guidance has a 20-40% chance of seeing 1 inch
of rain for the Monday/Tuesday system. Rain is forecast to start
on Monday morning and end early Tuesday morning with most of
Tuesday staying dry.

Another system comes through early on Thursday and will stick
around through Friday. Models are showing the most widespread
rain occuring Thursday into Friday but we`ll have to keep an eye
on model trends to see if that rain axis shifts as this looking
about a week out. There will likely not be any all day washouts
and not everyone will see rain. Though, with multiple rounds
occurring, we are hoping everyone does get under a shower or two
by the end of next week. Temperatures will be pleasant in the
upper 70s to lower 80s during the day and low 50s into the 40s
overnight which is about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time of year. Enjoy the early taste of fall!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A surface front continues to move south across south central
Missouri early this evening. Overall clouds area clearing behind
this leading surface boundary as a drier air mass moves into the
area. A second cold front is pushing southeast across central
Kansas into central Missouri.

A few storms have developed across the cold front across east
central Kansas early this evening. This activity will continue
to move south and should start to dissipate over the next
couple hours. This activity is not expected to move much further
to the east into the area as drier air mass is in place and
less instability and a cap is in place which will limit
convection along the front across much of the area east of the
current convection across Kansas.

North to northeasterly winds will occur across the area during
the TAF period general at 5 to 10kt but some gusts around 15kt
will be possible at times. VFR conditions are expected at the
TAF sites through the TAF period this evening through Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Wise