384
FXUS63 KSGF 160503
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 50-80% coverage of thunderstorms today (mainly along/south of
  I-44) and 30-50% on Thursday (entire area) afternoon with
  localized heavy rainfall.

- Warm and mostly dry this weekend with highs returning to
  around 90, with heat index values around 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a strong mid level high across
the northern plains, stretching back into the Rockies with
an upper level shear axis across the Missouri/Arkansas border.
The 12Z KSGF sounding showed a large increase in moisture versus
yesterday with a PW value of 1.66inches. Even higher PW values
were moving into the area from the southeast with a PW value of
2.03in at Nashville, TN. Surface winds remained out of the
east/northeast with dewpoints now in the lower 70s. Therefore, a
tropical like airmass is in place. Numerous showers and isolated
storms have already developed over locations east of
Springfield, with storm motions to the west.

Showers and Storms through Thursday: Would continue to expect
additional showers and storms to develop over the area this
afternoon and evening, especially along and south of Interstate
44. ML CAPE values are generally 1500j/kg or less with what is
likely a tall, skinny CAPE profile. Pulse severe diagnostics
suggest a very low chance for a storm to produce wind gusts to
30-50mph. The chance for this would most likely be west of
Springfield, closer to an area of higher theta e diffs and
higher instability. Storm motions will continue to be slow and
to the west, which is atypical for the area. High PWs and slow
storm motions may allow for a few locations to receive a quick
1-3 inches of rainfall. This is depicted well in high res cams.
Most areas will see much less than that but areas that do get
the quick burst of rain could see a localized flood threat. WPC
continues the Marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

There is one other item to mention for this afternoon and
evening and its a low probability of occurrence but has already
occurred in southeast Missouri/Northeast Arkansas. That would be
brief funnels. Given the shear axis over the area, high amounts
of moisture and low LCLs, sometimes you can get conditions just
right for brief funnels. Storm interactions along any outflow
boundaries also can cause these. These very rarely touch the
ground however since that shear axis is over the area and there
is some surface vorticity as well with weak boundaries, it
would not be surprising to see a few funnel cloud reports this
afternoon and evening, especially south of Interstate 44. Again,
its a low probability but want to mention it.

Otherwise, showers and storms will weaken after sunset with
decreasing coverage however with the lift over the area, we
could see a few showers remain over the area overnight.
Locations east of Springfield will see lighter winds and perhaps
a little higher potential for patchy fog. Currently the chance
for visibilities less than 1 mile is low but will monitor for
any changes.

While the main energy shifts west of the area on Thursday, it
will be in close enough proximity to produce additional showers
and storms during the day. The airmass looks very similar to
today with a very low potential for gusty winds to 50 mph and
localized flooding with a few areas seeing 1-3 inches. WPC
continues the Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Temps will
also be similar to today with most areas in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Higher temps and mostly dry Friday into the Weekend: Ensemble
cluster analysis continues to depict an upper ridge attempting
to re establish itself across the Rockies. This would favor
surface temps climbing closer to 90 if not reach the lower 90s
by Saturday. Warmer 850mb temps aloft look to arrive on Monday
which could be the warmest day coming up with areas reaching the
lower to middle 90s. Heat indicies are currently forecast to reach
the upper 90s to around 100 and the heat risk tool show
potential for the area to reach the moderate to major category
Saturday through Monday. Rain chances are currently less than
20 percent given the strength of the warm air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Expect fog and lowered ceilings at KSGF and KBBG this morning,
quickly improving to VFR. Otherwise, look for around a 30%
chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening, with the majority of the time being dry and VFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Titus