572
FXUS63 KSGF 081708
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Tuesday evening
  for counties west of Highway 65. Maximum afternoon heat index
  values around 105+. A Heat Advisory is in effect Today for the
  Highway 65 corridor and Lake of the Ozarks for heat index
  values of 100-105.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing
  fire danger. Above average temperatures are likely Today and
  Wednesday with highs in the 90s to around 100. Additional
  heat headlines may be warranted Wednesday.

- There is a 60-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday evening into Thursday and includes a marginal risk
  for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall which could
  lead to localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the center of a mid level ridge across Kansas
and Oklahoma. The 00z KSGF sounding continues to show a fairly
moist airmass aloft with a PW value of 1.82inches. A decent
surface moisture gradient has set up over the area with dews in
the middle 50s east of Springfield with lower to middle 60s
west. Temps however remain quite mild with many areas in the
middle 70s to lower 80s with the exception across the eastern
ozarks. Surface low pressure across the lee of the rockies has
set up a pressure gradient which has allowed for steady
southeast winds across the area which is likely aiding in the
warmer temps. The area of higher surface moisture seems to be
tied to a stationary frontal zone across northeast Oklahoma into
eastern Kansas.

Hot and Dry Today: Temperatures today will be similar or
perhaps a degree or two warmer than yesterday as the center of
the mid level ridge remains close to the area. Highs in the
upper 90s to lower 100s will be common across most of the area
which will likely challenge records. The zone of higher
dewpoints looks to advect/spread a little further east during
the day. This will allow for peak heat indicies to reach the
100-107 degree range with the highest indicies west of
Springfield. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect west of
Springfield. We have issued a Heat Advisory for a row or two of
counties along Highway 65 and in the Lake of the Ozarks region.
This is due to an increase in the potential for heat indicies to
reach 100-105. The NWS Heat Risk tool also shows the potential
for major to extreme impacts across most of the warning and
advisory area. This is likely due to the near record breaking
temperatures and very warm overnight lows for early September.
Those sensitive to the heat will need to take proper precautions
today.

There is a 10-20% chance for an isolated pop up storm or two
along and just west of the Highway 65 corridor. Several CAMS are
showing this potential however given the weak forcing/warm air
aloft, we think coverage will remain very low. Most locations
will remain dry. Those that do see a shower or storm could
briefly see a 30-40mph downburst given the high moisture content
aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Hot Temperatures Wednesday: Shortwave energy will move through
the northern plains during the day. This will begin to suppress
the ridge south. However before it completely does, one final
day of extreme heat may occur. A frontal boundary will begin to
move into the area from the north during the afternoon. Ahead of
this front, winds will begin turning more southwesterly and
then westerly. Similar setups to this in the past have allowed
for hot temps and increased dew points (moisture pooling).
While clouds and precip chances do make things uncertain (more
on that below), confidence is increasing that temps may be able
to make it to the upper 90s to low 100s early enough in the day
to allow for heat indicies to again reach 100-107, perhaps even
further east than today. This would likely require an
extension/expansion of heat headlines in future updates.

Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday - Thursday: As mentioned above,
a frontal boundary will be moving south into the area during the
afternoon and further into the area during the evening. While
mean ML CAPES look to be around 2000j/kg, wind shear will
generally be marginal (25-30kts). With the mean flow being
parallel to the front, scattered storms may form along or
perhaps just behind the front. Any storms that can become more
organized will have the potential to produce damaging winds and
large hail however widespread severe weather is not expected at
this time.

Coverage of showers and storms will likely increase from north
to south during the evening and overnight hours with high
precip chances, which is welcome due to the drought. However,
mean PW values around 2.0inches and convective elements could
allow for rainfall rates to be high enough for some localized
flooding. Latest REFS guidance suggests that higher potential
for this would be along and north of the Highway 54 corridor
with localized pockets of 2-4 inches. Most locations do have a
70-90% chance of seeing at least 0.50 inch of rain with the
highest amounts expected north of Interstate 44. Showers and
thunderstorms could linger through the day on Thursday as the
area remains in the right entrance region of an upper level jet
streak. Widespread clouds behind the front looks to keep temps
in the 80s on Thursday which would be welcome from the previous
days extreme heat.

Late Week/Weekend Rain Chances/Temps: Additional disturbances
look to move through the area on a daily basis into and through the
weekend. This features a rather pessimistic precip chance
forecast (20-50%) as we will have to pin down each daily disturbance.
Expect additional pop changes/modifications with future
updates. NBM temp spreads have shrunk some which leads to higher
confidence that temps will remain closer to average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period, with south-southwesterly
winds 10-15kts with occasional gusts up to 20kts possible this
afternoon. Mostly clear skies, save for the potential of some
scattered afternoon cu development with bases around 8kft.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026


Record High Temperatures:

September 8:
KSGF: 98/1960
KJLN: 98/1955
KVIH: 100/1901
KUNO: 99/1990

September 9:
KSGF: 98/1939
KJLN: 100/1947
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 99/1980

September 12:
KJLN: 97/1956


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 8:
KSGF: 76/1925

September 9:
KSGF: 75/1939

September 10:
KSGF: 74/1938

September 13:
KSGF: 75/1936

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-
     097-101.
     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-
     067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101>103.
     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MOZ066-067-077-078-081-082-088-089-091>094-096>098-
     101>103-105-106.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>057-069.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ068-079-080-090-
     095-104.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Burchfield