923
FXUS63 KSGF 241119
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures today. Scattered shower and
  thunderstorms across the area this morning through tonight.
  Localized heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding
  will be possible across the area.

- High confidence in excessive heat building into the area on
  Saturday and Sunday, and persisting into next week. Highs in
  the middle 90s to near 100, with heat index values around 100
  to 110+ degrees. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from
  Saturday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

This Morning-This Evening:
A rather unorganized complex of showers and thunderstorms
continues to track eastward across eastern Kansas this morning,
with additional isolated showers well ahead of the primary
shortwave energy. This activity has been confined to portions of
south central MO early this morning. Meanwhile, the approaching
complex is being fueled by a 20 to 30 knot low- level jet over
the Central Plains. Expect this LLJ to remain stationed over
central/eastern Kansas through this morning, resulting in a
weakening trend of the unorganized complex as it enters into our
area later this morning. In general, CAMs paint a picture of the
greatest coverage across west central into central MO through
the morning.

As we progress into the early afternoon, additional development
is progged to occur west of the area and translate through the
Ozarks. The environment remains favorable for a localized heavy
rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding, as gleaned by
PWATs approaching 2.0+ inches this afternoon. This will be
amplified by the LLJ nosing into the area this afternoon,
though instability looks to remain marginal at best (MUCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg). WPC captures the flash flood potential
with a Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook over much of
the area today/tonight. The greatest concern for flash flooding
will be where repeated thunderstorms train over the same areas.
Efficient rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per a hour would
yield localized heavy rainfall corridors. As for forecast
rainfall amounts, there continues to be some discrepancies on
pinning down the exact location of these heavier corridors. HREF
PMM capture a few localized narrow corridors of 1 to 3 inches,
with the max depicting the high-end solution of an isolated 3 to
5 inches. Pinning down these exact locations will best be
forecasted by an analysis of mesoscale and radar trends in the
near term. Much of the afternoon activity dissipates this
evening, with the latest trends suggesting a lack of
redevelopment tonight into Saturday morning. This scenario would
be favored in the wake of subsidence, though a few CAMs still
depict scattered showers and thunderstorms persisting through
the overnight. It is worth noting, there will be periods of dry
time today and a washout is not expected for entire area. Continue
to monitor the forecast for updates through today.

With rain chances and cloud cover across the area today,
temperatures will remain rather cool for much of the area. The
northern half of the area will likely remain the upper 70s to
lower 80s, with the warmest temperatures (middle to upper 80s)
nudging into southeast KS and southwest MO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Saturday-Thursday:
Friday`s system dissipates to the south and east into Saturday
morning, with isolated showers and thunderstorm chances (10-30%)
lingering through the morning. The timing of dissipation will
play a role in how quickly heat and humidity are able to
overspread the area. This approaching heat wave is characterized
by a strong upper level ridge building into the region. 850mb
temperatures are progged to push 23 to 25 C as early as Saturday
across the western half of the area. If clouds and precipitation
clear the area by Saturday afternoon, temperatures look to push
into the lower to upper 90s. Confidence in this potential is
greatest along and west of Highway 65 on Saturday afternoon,
with heat index values approaching 100 to 110. This is well
supported by the probabilistic suite of guidance. There is
still a bit of uncertainty on the extent of dewpoints actually
reaching into the upper 70s, but the message remains consistent
for excessive heat. For this reason, an Extreme Heat Watch has
been issued for the entire area from 1pm Saturday through 7pm
Tuesday.

Confidence increases into Sunday, and beyond into early next
week that a heat wave takes shape over the region. High
temperatures soar well into the middle to upper 90s, with low
100s across southeast KS and southwest MO. This will be
accompanied by heat index values ranging from 100 to 110+. Thus,
confidence in heat headlines is high, and is a matter of
advisory versus warning criteria being met. A few record highs
may be approached, as seen in the Climate section of the AFD.
Minimal overnight relief is expected with this heat wave, with
overnight lows staying in the upper 70s to near 80. The hottest
temperatures occur on Sunday through Tuesday. Any necessary
plans should be put into action, allowing ample time to prepare
for a prolonged, multiple day heat wave.

Meanwhile, any precipitation chances remain minimal beyond
Saturday, at less than 10%. While confidence is highest in the
heat wave persisting into Tuesday, there is some indications
that the heat lingers into the middle of next week. This will be
determined by if the upper level ridge retrieves back to the
east or remains stationed over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
 Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A system moves through the region today, bringing scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. Widespread cloud cover can be
expected, with instances of MVFR flight conditions within
heavier showers or thunderstorms. This is captured by visibility
reductions around 4 miles and ceilings around 3000 feet. The
greatest coverage of precipitation will occur this morning
through the evening, becoming more isolated in nature tonight.
Light south-southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots, with an occasional
gust up to 20 knots this afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Record High Temperatures:

July 26:
KSGF: 104/2022
KJLN: 107/2022
KUNO: 103/2022
KVIH: 101/1999

July 27:
KSGF: 102/2012
KJLN: 105/2011
KUNO: 102/1999
KVIH: 102/1899

July 28:
KSGF: 102/1986
KJLN: 104/2011
KUNO: 103/1986
KVIH: 100/1999

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Perez