072
FXUS63 KSGF 161053
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
553 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average temperatures will occur across the area for the
  remainder of the work week.

- Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area Friday
  night into Saturday night. There will be the potential for
  some strong to severe storms.

- Cooler conditions will occur on Sunday behind the front.
  Slight warm up occurs on Monday followed by near to slightly
  below normal temperatures next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The upper level ridge of high pressure and warmer air mass
remain centered over the region. The ridge will remain over the
area today and will start to move off to the east on Friday as
the upper level low to the west moves northeast. The warmer air
mass will remain in place across the area today and also on Friday
with highs warming into the lower to middle 80s again both
days. These warmer conditions are around 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for mid October.

A drier air mass is in place across the area and will remain in
place through Friday night. A weak upper level disturbance will
move through the region tonight into Friday. No rainfall is
expected due to the drier air mass in place, but an increase in
cloud cover will likely occur this evening into Friday morning,
then clouds should start to clear during the afternoon hours
Friday.

The area of surface high pressure will start to move east today
allowing southeasterly winds to pick up slightly today with
gusts up to around 20 mph at times from mid morning into the
afternoon hours. As the high pressure continues to move east
and surface low pressure moves into the plains on Friday, winds
will become more south to southwesterly with gusts up to around
25 mph at times on Friday. With the drier air mass in place
afternoon humidity values will drop into the 35 to 45% range
both this afternoon and again on Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

An upper level low is currently over the southwestern U.S. and will
move northeast into the Plains tonight and off to the northeast
on Friday. An secondary upper level trough will then move east
through the region Saturday/Saturday night along with an
associated cold front.

As the first upper level trough moves northeast, an upper level
jet will move over the region Friday night into Saturday
morning. Uncapped MUCAPE will develop across the area ahead of
the trough Friday night into Saturday morning. Scattered showers
and storms will likely develop across eastern Kansas Friday
night and more east across the area through the night into
Saturday morning, especially along and north of I-44. Lightning
will be the main risk with this activity but a few of the
stronger storms could be capable of hail up to the size of
quarters and localized gusty winds Friday night mainly after
midnight into Saturday morning.

Moisture advection will occur ahead of the trough Friday night
and Saturday with modest instability developing across portions
of the area. Models are coming into better agreement on the cold
front timing being during the day on Saturday, but there are
still some minor differences between the models on exactly when
the frontal passage will occur. The later the frontal passage
the farther north and west the moisture advection will occur,
but the quicker the frontal passage occurs the farther
southeast this will occur. Models are showing MLCAPE values of
1500 to 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 50 kts developing
in the better moisture advection, just how far north and west
is the question. As the front moves into the area, supercells
will be possible within the area of better instability. The cap
will be weak, and strong forcing will occur with along the
front so a line of storms will likely form and move off to the
east. Again just how far west/east and north is the question.
There will be the potential for severe storms within the area of
better instability. At this time the better potential for this
will be along and south of I-44 and along and east of Highway
65, where the SPC has a Day 3 Slight risk with a Marginal risk
farther west and north. If the frontal passage is a little
slower, the risk could extend back more to the west, but a
little faster passage the risk could still be more to the
southeast. Scattered storms could be ongoing across the area
Saturday morning, especially in the northern portions. Then the
storms along the front are expected Saturday afternoon and
evening and push east Saturday night.

A slower frontal passage will keep the warmer air mass in place
on Saturday but there could be more cloud cover and rain so
highs from the middle 70s (where more clouds occur), to the
middle 80s (where more sun occurs) will be possible on Saturday.
Cooler conditions will advect into the region behind the cold
front on Sunday as highs only warm into the 60s. An upper ridge
will build back into the area on Monday with highs in the middle
to upper 70s returning. Another upper level trough will move
through the region on Tuesday and could bring some rain to the
area, there are some models keeping the area dry with the front
as moisture return will be limited behind this weekend`s system.
The front will bring cooler conditions to the area with much of
next week expected to be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today through
tonight. Southeasterly winds will occur across the area today
and wind gusts of 15 to 20kt will be possible at times from mid
morning into the afternoon hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise