247
FXUS63 KSGF 111124
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30-70% chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
  morning along and north of I-44, with 30-55% chances this
  afternoon into tonight along and west of the Hwy 63 corridor.

- Daily rain chances (30-50%) persist through Wednesday, with
  temperatures returning to near normal for mid August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Current Conditions/Synoptic Overview:
- A quasi-stationary front is draped from the TX/OK Panhandles
  through northern Missouri.
- A positively-tilted upper-level trough stretches from the
  continental divide to Manitoba, with several embedded
  shortwaves (per 00Z upper air obs).
- A 30-35kt low-level jet streak is directing warm air advection and
  deep moist convergence into a sprawling MCS in south- central
  KS, as seen on early morning radar and satellite imagery.
- There is also isolated, disorganized convective development and
  remnant stratiform precip east of the MCS into eastern KS and
  western MO.

Rest of tonight into this morning:
- The MCS will lose steam at some point as it treks northeast
  into less favorable thermodynamics, and the low-level jet
  streak driving it weakens and shifts north towards Kansas
  City.
- Whether or not it makes it to our area is still up in the
  air, even at such a short lead time. Overnight WoFS runs are
  all over the place on how conditions will evolve. It will
  really depend on how quickly the MCS cold pool develops, and
  whether storms continue to develop along outflow boundaries.
- My 8 ball says it makes it, bringing 30-70% chances of scattered
  showers and thunderstorms to areas along and north of I-44,
  with the highest chances in southeast KS/the Four States area
  and northward towards Kansas City.
- Model soundings suggest the primary risk would be heavy
  rainfall and isolated flooding, with tall and skinny CAPE
  profiles and PW values in the 1.6-1.9" range.
- However, the ground is still quite dry (CREST soil moisture
  10- 35%), so any flooding is expected to be minor and rate-
  driven (efficient rainfall rates 1-2.5"/hr if updrafts can get
  deeply rooted).

This afternoon:
- In addition to the synoptic front sagging south, remnant
  outflow boundaries across the area may add an additional
  potential forcing for scattered convective redevelopment this
  afternoon.
- Would not be an all-day, widespread washout.
- Best chances (30-55%) this afternoon into the evening would
  be along and west of the Hwy 63 corridor, especially furthest
  northeast.

Tonight and Tuesday:
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue overnight and
  into Tuesday as the upper-level trough remains in place over
  the central Plains and the front remains stalled in our
  general vicinity.
- 40-60% chances of rain Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Wednesday:
- 20-45% chances of rain as the trough takes its sweet time
  pushing east.
- Cloud cover will keep temperatures moderate, in the upper 80s
  to low 90s.

Rest of the week:
- Trough finally goes away.
- Dries out by Thursday.
- Ridging begins to build over the southeastern US, warming
  temperatures back into the mid 90s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Convective complex is ongoing in eastern Kansas, very slowly
pushing its way east towards western Missouri. The strongest
storms on the eastern edge of the complex are producing
frequent lightning, including cloud-to-cloud strikes 25+ miles
from the storm. These storms are anticipated to sustain for a
few more hours, though they will weaken and become more
scattered through the morning hours. Hence, the VCTS for the
KJLN terminal.

After a brief break in storms during the morning hours, remnant
outflow boundaries from these early morning storms may kick up
additional storms this afternoon. These would also be scattered
in nature, and best chances would be further north and west of
the KSGF and KJLN terminals, but confidence in location of
storm redevelopment is still low, so sticking to prob30.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden