242
FXUS63 KSGF 101932
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for isolated strong to
  severe thunderstorms across far south central Missouri this
  afternoon/early evening.

- Additional low end potential for showers and storms this
  weekend while turning warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Rest of today: 2,000-2,500 J/kg of instability has developed
over sunny far south-central MO while shear is weak at around 20
kts. This may lead to a couple strong to marginally severe
storms this afternoon and early evening, with localized 60 mph
winds the primary threat. The area of concern should mainly be
southeast of a line from Gainesville to Salem.

Over the rest of the area, some light showers are possible, with
temperatures mainly in the 70s.

Tonight and Friday: The mid-level wave over south-central KS
will settle over the area tonight while closing off and
lingering through Friday. This will prompt chances for showers
and possibly thunderstorms mainly south of I-44. The highest
coverage/chances will be late tonight into early Friday morning
at 50-70%. Otherwise look for highs mainly in the 80s Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

This weekend into next week: A mid-level high will develop over
the southeastern CONUS, with increasing heights over our region.
This will result in a return to above normal temperatures with
highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Occasional
shortwave energy nearby may lead to some showers and storms at
times, but predictability is quite low as better chances will be
north of the CWA. There is a marginal severe risk touching the
northwestern CWA Saturday as strong to severe storms may develop
north of the area and outflow count push a few storms into the
CWA, but confidence in any details is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Light showers (and possibly a thunderstorm at KBBG) will
continue to push southeast this afternoon and evening.
Additional showers and potential for MVFR ceilings are possible
late tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus