978
FXUS63 KSGF 222001
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
301 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures through Friday with shower and
  thunderstorm chances (40-70%) ahead Thursday through Saturday
  morning. Localized heavy rainfall is possible, with localized
  flooding possible in areas that see training storms.

- Heat is expected to return to the region on Sunday into early
  next week. Increasing confidence for highs in the middle 90s
  to near 100, with heat index values around 100 to 110 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The current pattern of the atmosphere will largely mimic the
pattern that ensembles are forecasting the next week or two.
This consists of an expansive upper-level high over the south-
central and southwest CONUS, with an upper-level low generally
over the Hudson Bay area. In between these two features is a
longwave in the jet stream, with enhanced winds across the
north-central, Midwest, and northeast states. Subtle mid-level
waves and associated surface features will progress through this
pattern, changing weather through the period despite little
deviations in the upper levels. The subtle pattern shift
consists of a surface high pressure over the north-central
Plains, with a cold front currently situated over northern Texas
and Louisiana.


Seasonable cool temperatures through Friday:

The cold front has brought seasonably cool temperatures to the
area (slightly below normal). Highs today are on track to stay
within the lower to middle 80s. This air mass is forecast to
traverse from west to east Thursday and Friday, keeping our high
temperatures just below normal in the upper to middle 80s with
lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

As the system moves eastward, a warm front on the southwest
periphery of the high pressure will begin reaching into extreme
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, which may bring some
locally higher temperatures into those areas for Friday and
Saturday.


20-50% chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Thursday:

Lee cyclogenesis ahead of the next wave will produce a band of
elevated frontogenesis north of the surface warm front tonight
in the central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
along this band, slowly dissipating as it moves east. The
remnants of this band should move through east Kansas and west
Missouri Thursday morning into the afternoon (20-50% chance).
However, even elevated instability will be very limited,
keeping much of this activity in the form of light showers as it
dissipates from west to east through the early afternoon.
Nevertheless, lingering cloud cover will be over the area
throughthe day Thursday, keeping temperatures "cool".


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

30-70% chance of rain Friday into Saturday morning:

The aforementioned surface warm front will shift northeast
closer to the area Friday night. At the same time, another mid-
level wave will progress across the central Plains, providing
some lift and low-level mass response overtop the surface
front. This will pave the way for another shield of showers and
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning, mainly across
central Missouri (40-70%). Global models within the LREF are
still struggling a bit on exact timing and placement of the
features at play (as evidenced by the low PoPs and QPF values in
the current forecast). Taking a look at ESATs, though, this does
look like a classic low-level jet heavy rain/training setup. a
~95th percentile LLJ for this time of year (20-30 kts), is
forecast to develop as a result of synoptic lift from the mid-
level wave. This will be pumping in Gulf moisture with PWATs
reaching the 97.5-99th percentile of 2.0-2.1", leading to a belt
of stronger than climatologically normal integrated moisture
transport into central Missouri. Convergence along the warm
front is expected to be oriented NW-SE across the area, which
with the northwesterly upper-level pattern, will result in areas
of training. Therefore, heavy rainfall and potential flooding is
possible with this system, especially across central Missouri
where WPC has outlined in a SLight (2 of 4) Risk (generally
along and north of Highway 60).

In addition to uncertainties in the system location and timing
in ensemble members, instability does look to be a tad meager.
Deterministic medium range models (e.g., NAM), depict values
less than 500 J/kg north of the warm front where the axis of
rainfall is forecast to be around. CAM members confirm this for
the beginning of the event with simulated reflectivity generally
showing spotty showers. That said, there could be some washing
out of the instability signal with a large precipitation
footprint in the lower resolution models. Indeed, the RRFS CAM
does bring more robust convection later Friday night, which
could bring the higher rainfall amounts. Either way, with PWATs
well in excess of 2 inches, even showers can be efficient
rainfall producers, and training over any location could lead to
localized flooding. Stay up to date with the forecast for more
refinements in rainfall amounts and locations.


Heat builds back into the region next week:

Following the surface warm front, the pattern will wiggle back
eastward with the upper-level high building back into the
region. NBM 25th-75th percentile spreads tighten up and
increase with highs reaching the middle 90s to lower 100s Sunday
into next week. This is well-above normal with EFI showing
values of 0.8-0.9 (80-90% of models above climatological normal
range.

Lows will also be quite mild in the middle to upper 70s.
With NBM dewpoints forecast to be in the upper 60s to middle
70s, Heat Index values are forecast to be in the 100-110 range.
12Z LREF forecasts place a 30-40% chance for Heat Advisory
criteria being met (Heat Index > 105 F), and a 10-20% chance of
Extreme Heat Warning criteria being met (Heat Index > 110 F) in
some spots Sunday through Tuesday. This will largely depend on
the amount of moisture. Some long range members show corn-sweat-
like dewpoints nearing 80 F, while others show the dryline
being close to the area, with dewpoints closer to the 60s. These
would have large implications on the upper-end of the Heat
Index spectrum.

During this period, chances of rain will be low, but not
necessarily zero. Northwesterly flow aloft may bring in some
remnant shower/thunderstorm complexes, and with high moisture in
the area, pop-up showers and thunderstorms would also be a
possibility. For now, confidence is too low to mention anything
above 15%.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

High confidence that VFR conditions are expected at all TAF
sites through at least 12Z. Only cloud cover should be a cu
field at 4-5 kft until 02Z, with very FEW passing high clouds
through the whole TAF period. Winds will generally be northerly
at 8-12 kts, but gradually shifting easterly through the whole
period. JLN may experience gusts above 20 kts at times.

Main aviation concern comes after 12Z for JLN when a band of
light showers is expected to move into the area (30-40% chance).
There is still some uncertainty in exact onset timing, but rain
should be fairly weak, limiting overall visibility reduction.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price