096
FXUS63 KSGF 070824
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
324 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through this evening for
  counties west of Highway 65. Maximum afternoon heat index
  values around 105+.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing
  fire danger. Above average temperatures are likely most of this
  week with highs in the 90s to around 100 Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Additional heat headlines may be warranted.

- There is a 60-90 % chance of showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday evening into Thursday and includes a marginal risk
  for severe thunderstorms for areas north of Highway 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the mid level ridge has become positioned
over the TX/OK panhandles with a more northerly flow over the
area. A weak shortwave was currently moving through central
Missouri. A frontal boundary was located across eastern Kansas
into northeast Oklahoma. Lower moisture and temps were generally
located just east of the area however locations near Rolla had
seen temps drop into the low 70s. Other than a few remaining showers
across central Missouri, most of the area was dry.

Hot and Mostly Dry Today: The upper ridge will begin to slowly
expand east again today. A temp/dewpoint gradient will remain
established across the area from southwest to northeast.
Locations west of Highway 65 will experience hot conditions with
highs around 100 and heat indicies approaching 105. These areas
remain in an Extreme Heat Warning today. Locations further
northeast towards Rolla will likely remain about 10 degrees
lower with highs around 90. There is a 10-20% chance of a
isolated shower or storm this afternoon west of Highway 65
however given the increasing warm air aloft and lack of forcing,
we dont expect coverage or severity to be similar to yesterday.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Hot Conditions Tuesday and Wednesday: Ensembles continue to
support the trend that the mid level ridge will build even
further east over the area. This will allow for highs in the
upper 90s to lower 100s across a larger portion of the area.
Even with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, heat indicies will
likely reach 100 to 105 degrees across a large portion of the
area. Additional heat headlines may be needed in future updates.

Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday Night/Thursday: A pattern change
then commences Wednesday into Thursday as shortwave energy moves
through the northern plains, sending a cold front into the area.
Currently the timing of the front looks to be mainly Wednesday
evening and overnight into Thursday. Given the largely parallel
flow aloft along the front, there will be showers and storms
along and behind the frontal boundary. Rain chances have
increased into the 60-90% range. Latest NBM shows a 75% chance
for rainfall amounts over 0.50 inch along and north of Highway
60, which would help with the ongoing drought. The SPC has added
a marginal risk for severe storms for locations north of
Highway 60. Latest guidance does show an overlap in higher CAPE/Shear
across this area (and especially areas closer to Interstate 70)
and will need to monitor for a damaging wind and hail potential
with this system. However as noted in the SPC discussion, the
parallel nature of the flow would suggest storms may become
undercut which could decrease the severe threat. Northerly
winds and clouds on Thursday will keep temps considerably lower
than previous days with many places remaining in the 80s.

A west/northwest flow pattern then sets in Friday into the
weekend as the area will be on the northeast periphery of the
ridge. This will keep at least low chances for showers and
storms over the area along with temps near to slightly above
average. Ensemble variance increases late weekend into the
following week with very large temperature spreads in the latest
NBM data. Confidence is low in the upper level pattern as we
head into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. There is less than a 20% chance of a shower or storm
across western Missouri Monday afternoon however confidence is
too low to include at this time. Winds will gradually shift from
the east to the southeast on Monday with speeds less than 10kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 7:
KJLN: 101/1998

September 8:
KSGF: 98/1960
KJLN: 98/1955
KUNO: 99/1990

September 9:
KSGF: 98/1939
KJLN: 100/1947
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 99/1980

September 12:
KJLN: 97/1956
KUNO: 96/1980

September 13:
KUNO: 96/1980


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 7:
KSGF: 77/1899

September 9:
KSGF: 75/1939

September 10:
KSGF: 74/1938


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-
     097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-
     067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield