245
FXUS63 KSGF 201210
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
710 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight to marginal risk for isolated strong to severe
  thunderstorms west of Highway 65 this morning with 60 mph
  winds the primary risk. Heavy rainfall and flooding is also
  possible in this area through the morning.

- There remains an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms across
  much of the area this afternoon and evening. Tornadoes
  (potentially a couple them being strong), large hail and
  damaging winds are all possible with this system.

- Additional rain chances (40-70%) return Tuesday through late
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Two rounds of convection will bring hazards to the area in the
short term.

Ongoing convection: Primary hazard is widespread 2-4 inches of
rain with, locally higher amounts up to 5 inches, and
associated flooding. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possibly in
some of the storms. These threats will be focused mainly west
of Highway 65 this morning as the warm front lifts through the
area.

Enhanced severe risk this afternoon and evening:

Confidence is high in seeing supercells and bowing linear
segments on radar this afternoon and evening. The western extent
of the risk is still somewhat in quest due to unknowns of when
and where morning convection will keep instability more limited.
Greatest confidence is over south-central Missouri where
1,000-1,500 J/kg of SBCAPE is expected. That level of
instability is possible as far west as the western Missouri
border, but the highest probabilities for >1,000 J/kg (80% per
HREF) is along and east of Highway 65. What isn`t in question is
the magnitude and profile of shear. Strong deep layer shear up
to around 60 kts and strongly arcing hodographs will be more
than sufficient for organized severe weather with all hazard
modes. Additional thunderstorms are possible over the NW CWA (SE
Kansas and west-central Missouri) in the late afternoon and
evening. These storms may be low-topped supercells given the
proximity to the deep upper shortwave, but confidence in this
outcome is lower.

Hazards: Afternoon/evening hazards are for golf ball size hail,
70 mph winds (maybe up to 80), and tornadoes. Given shear
profiles, a strong tornado or two would be possible. Most
favored conditions for strong tornadoes would be in cells that
are more isolated or perhaps in stronger bowing segments.
Hazards with the potential low-topped supercells over the NW in
the late afternoon and evening would be large hail to the size
of half dollars, winds to 60 mph and potentially tornadoes.

Timing: Development of the afternoon/evening storms should
start SW of the CWA and push into the far SW around 1-3pm. CAM
guidance shows timing near Highway 65 around 3pm-5pm and Highway
63 around 5pm-7pm. Timing for the potential NW CWA low-topped
supercells would be roughly from 4pm-8pm.

In addition to thunderstorm hazards, non-thunderstorm wind gusts
up to 45 mph (possibly higher) are expected today.

Afternoon/evening thunderstorms will have to be watched for
flooding given soil saturation across the area, but they will be
much more progressive with limited training potential, thus
limiting the risk for additional flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Ensemble data continues to be consistent in bringing
additional shortwaves into and through the area from the
west/southwest Tuesday through Thursday night. NBM rainfall
probs continue to increase, especially Thursday and Friday and
we will need to monitor where this rainfall sets up given the
heavy rainfall from this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 701 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue this
morning before a line of severe storms moves through this
afternoon. Improvement is expected behind the line of storms,
but a return to IFR to MVFR ceilings is expected late this
evening into tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus