001
FXUS63 KSGF 121943
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
243 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms late
  this evening and overnight. Elevated hail and isolated
  damaging winds will be the primary severe risk.

- Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for
  severe thunderstorms Saturday evening and night. Damaging
  winds will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief
  tornadoes as secondary hazards.

- A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the Ozarks from
  1 AM tonight through 7 PM Sunday morning. Slight (Level 2 of
  4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall
  early Saturday into Sunday. This is due to recent rains,
  elevated streamflows, and saturated soils.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Surface high pressure is overhead today and zonal flow is in place
giving us a pleasant day and a break in the humidity. Highs today
will reach the lower 80s and dewpoints will stay in the 50s and 60s.
With the zonal flow in place, it`ll allow a few shortwaves to move
through overnight.

Severe Weather Analysis:

The first shortwave impulse of energy ejects off the Colorado
Front Range this evening. This will trigger lee surface
cyclogenesis, initiating a mass response of southerly flow
across our area. This will lift the cold front from yesterday`s
storms back north as a warm front this evening and through
tonight. Warm air advection associated with the front will
provide some lift within 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-40 kts of
elevated 1-6 km shear. Therefore, a 30-50% chance of showers and
thunderstorms exists with the lifting warm front, especially
west of Highway 65. The marginal shear will promote a low-end
hail risk as storms will be elevated. Since shear is a tad on
the marginal side, only a few storms may become severe, but the
environment in place supporting elevated storms, straight shear
vectors above the boundary layer supporting splits for any
rotating storms that can develop, and a Large Hail Parameter of
4-8, will make large hail a threat. Mostly quarters to half
dollar-sized hail are expected, but up to golf balls are
possible in any stronger storms.

Uncertainty then exists in the evolution (and subsequent timing)
of potential storms into Saturday morning, and through the day
Saturday before higher confidence storms move through Saturday
evening into the early overnight hours.

Scenario 1:
Some HREF CAMs (particularly the HRRR/NAMNest), depict upscale
growth into an MCS with these overnight storms, which would dive
southeast, impacting areas east of Highway 65 very early
Saturday morning (currently not in a SPC Risk, so watch for a
potential expansion if this scenario becomes greater
confidence). This is supported by RAP forecasts depicting high
downdraft CAPE values and 50-60% MCS Maintenance Probabilities.
So, this scenario seems possible (50-60% chance) if storms can
punch through the nocturnal boundary layer and develop a cold
pool. This would then support a damaging wind risk of up to 60
mph along the leading edge of the complex.

If this scenario occurs, remnant cold pools should be enough to
keep convection at bay until Saturday evening.

Scenario 2:
Other HREF CAMs (particularly the ARW/NSSL/RRFS/FV3) are not
entirely robust on upscale growth of the storms overnight. This
is supported by lack of synoptic ascent and the potential for
storms not being able to develop a cold pool through the stable
nocturnal boundary layer.

If this scenario occurs, there will not be a strong cold pool
during the day. Regional models depict the Colorado shortwave to
move through our area mid-day Saturday. With lift along this
wave, if there is no surface cold pool, development of storms
would then be posisble (40-50% chance). The environment at this
time would be juiced up with HREF mean showing 2000-3000 J/kg
SBCAPE and RAP showing up to 4500 J/kg thanks to renewed mid-70s
dewpoints. This instability would be within 35-45 kts of deep-
layer shear, high amounts of downdraft CAPE, strong 0-6 km wind
speeds, very high Theta-E diffs of 30-35 K, and a Microburst
Composite Parameter of around 10. This would all suggest a
damaging wind threat of up to 75 mph gusts with any storms that
form. A system and or bowing segment would be the main driver of
these. Again, in this scenario, these would occur during the
middle of the day to early afternoon.

Scenario 1 & 2:
Regardless of which Scenario 1 or 2 develop, there is pretty
high confidence (90%) in a line of storms moving through with
the second, but main, shortwave and associated surface cold
front during the evening and early overnight hours. As this
large complex moves through, the environment will be the same as
characterized in Scenario 2, leading to a damaging wind risk as
the main threat. Some weak or brief spin-up tornadoes would also
be possible given 25-35 kt 0-3 km shear vectors oriented nearly
perpendicular to the movement/orientation of the line. Hail
threat would be lower but non-zero with the MCS, especially if
any embedded supercell structures can occur in the line.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Pleasant weather returns to start next week with highs in the 70s
and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s which is below average for this
time of year. Then, by mid-week, rain chances return to the area
with a few shortwaves bringing in 30-60% chances for rain. CIPS/CSU
severe weather aggregates are hinting at a chance for severe weather
to occur on Thursday as a strong low pressure system moves through
the area. We`ll have to watch for another active pattern for the
middle of next week. Daytime high temperatures slowly increase into
the upper 80s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

High pressure over the region today will keep fight conditions
VFR through late tonight. Showers and storms may move across the
region after midnight and into Saturday morning. Where showers
and storms occur, flight conditions will fall to MVFR to locally
IFR with impacts to ceilings and visibilities.

Surface winds will be generally 5 to 10kts with erratic winds
and higher gusts in storms. Surface winds will shift from
easterly to southerly behind storms overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Many areas across western Missouri and southeast Kansas have
received over 2" of rainfall and localized areas received over
6" of rain in the past 7 days. A Flood Watch is in effect for
most of the area, excluding the far southeast Ozarks for a
widespread 2-4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts near
5 inches. For elsewhere outside of the watch, those areas could
see 1-2 inches of rain. The Weather Prediction Center has
issued a Moderate Risk (3/4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday
and overnight into Sunday primarily for areas along and north
of Highway 60. This upgrade is due to the two potential MCS
moving through tonight and Saturday night. The area of greatest
concern within the Moderate risk is SE KS and W MO. Depending on
which tracks the MCS take, that area could see the highest QPF.
PWATs in that area are also the highest at over 2 inches and
rivers are elevated as well. Soil moisture is between 20-40% for
most areas in the Flood Watch with 1 hr FFG of 1-2 inches.
There is still a bit of discrepancy in the track of the systems
over the next 24-36 hrs, but if they do train over the same
area, this would lead to "locally considerable flash flooding,
along with isolated moderate river flooding" per the National
Water Center. Since some of this flooding may occur overnight,
remember to watch for flooded roadways and low water crossings
and turn around don`t drown!

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning for
     MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088>090-093>095-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria/Price
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Hatch
HYDROLOGY...Soria