007
FXUS63 KSGF 050551
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog with visibilities less than one mile will occur through
  sunrise.

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms tonight into Friday
  morning. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and frequent
  lightning are the main hazards.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible through
  the weekend, leading to additional risks for severe
  thunderstorms and flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The front remains roughly along the I-44 corridor with
convection training along the front. Rainfall rates have been
very heavy near the front with high moisture levels (PWAT
around 1.75 inches). Excessive rainfall and flooding will
continue to be a threat along and near the front, so the Flood
Watch was shifted and extended until midnight tonight.

A marginal severe risk also exists this afternoon and early
evening mainly southeast of the front. MLCAPE is around 1,500
J/kg with very weak shear. This poses a microburst threat over
mainly south-central Missouri, but for the most part expecting
gusts up to 50 mph.

Showers and storms will gradually exit to the southeast tonight.

For Thursday, we could see some isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the southeastern CWA, but no severe or
flooding is expected. Look for highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Late Thursday night into Friday morning features an SPC marginal
risk for severe storms as models continue to show potential for
an MCS moving through or near the CWA. Greatest chances will be
over the southern CWA, but considerable uncertainty exists on
the track. Heavy rainfall/flooding and damaging winds are the
primary threats. Uncertainties related to convective evolution
also leads to uncertainties in precip chances and temperatures
through the day.

Another round of MCS activity is possible Friday night into
Saturday morning, prompting an SPC slight risk. Models have been
taking this round south of the CWA, but have tracked a bit north
in recent runs. Even so, confidence in any trend or detail is
very low given low predictability on MCS activity at this time
range. The southern CWA will have the greatest chances of seeing
precipitation, including hazards of heavy rainfall/flooding and
damaging winds.

The pattern remains active, but with the CWA more on the
periphery, Sunday into Tuesday. Generally look for 20-40% PoPs
each day with low confidence in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Confidence is high that LIFR ceilings and IFR vis will occur at
the sites (especially SGF) through sunrise. Dense fog could
develop at the sites by sunrise. Otherwise IFR ceilings will
likely linger through the morning before returning to MVFR for
late morning and afternoon. Any additional rainfall will likely
hold off until after this TAF period. Winds will remain light
out of the north to northeast, less than 10kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Burchfield