386
FXUS63 KSGF 250508
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures expected through next week with highs
  in the 70s to lower 80s.

- 50-70% rain chances Monday for the southwestern corner of
  Missouri and southeastern corner of Kansas. Rainfall amounts
  for that area are up to 0.75" with localized amounts up to
  1.5". Not everyone will see rain and some places will remain
  dry.

- 30-70% rain chances for much of the Ozarks Thursday and
  onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Diurnal mixing has taken over today and dropped our dewpoints
into the the low to mid 40s in some areas especially along the
plateau. Skies were sunny for most of the day, but a surface low
is currently moving through KS bringing cirrus clouds and gusty
northerly winds to our area. Winds have been gusting over 20
mph at times this afternoon due to the pressure gradient
tightening ahead of that low. Otherwise, our area should remain
mostly dry with precipitation coming overnight. Models show SE
KS and SW MO getting light rain as early as midnight. Expect
cloudy skies and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The cold air advection will continue to filter in on Monday.
The large mid-level trough that moves through the area will
allow cooler air to settle into the state for most of the week
as well as multiple chances for rain to occur. SE KS and SW MO
still have the highest chances for rain with this upcoming
pattern change as they sit at 50-70%. As far as timing for the
rain tomorrow, we could see light showers over in that area
starting as early as 1-3 AM. Though, rain is more likely to
start by late morning at peak around noon. Rain tapers off as
the afternoon/evening goes on. Rainfall amounts continue to
trend downward with most locations stay relatively dry. SE KS
and SW MO will see around 0.75" with localized pockets up to
1.5". That area will have to be monitored for excessive rainfall
if they receive multiple rounds of rain in the same areas as
they are outlined in a Marginal Risk (1/4).

Another system comes through Wednesday into Thursday. Models
are showing the most widespread rain occuring Thursday
morning/afternoon, but we`ll have to keep an eye on model
trends to see if that rain axis shifts. Temperatures will be
pleasant in the upper 70s to lower 80s during the day and low
50s into the 40s overnight which is about 10 to 15 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Enjoy the early taste of fall!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

For the 06z TAFS, convection associated with an upper level wave
will begin to shift southeast and into the area towards 12z.
Rain will need to overcome some drier air initially, but we
should see ceilings lower overnight and possibly into MVFR by
12z. There will be a precipitation gradient with the heaviest
rain along with thunderstorms to the south and west of the CWA
and diminishing as you head further northeast with BBG/SGF
probably on the northeast edge of the rain. JLN will have the
better chances of IFR conditions within the rain. Rain should
come to an end by around 00z as the shortwave shifts southeast
of the area and ceilings will begin to lift again into VFR,
eventually clearing out during the evening. Winds will be light
as surface high pressure moves into the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025


Record Low Temperatures:

August 26:
KVIH: 50/2015
KUNO: 50/1958

August 27:
KJLN: 52/1962
KVIH: 51/1971
KUNO: 52/2010

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Lindenberg