445
FXUS63 KSGF 120628
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
128 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  and mostly dry weather forecasted through next week.

- 15-30% chance for light showers across western Missouri and
  extreme southeast Kansas tonight into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

No changes to the forecast in the short term.

Today:

Dry weather will persist with an upper ridge overhead. A tighter
pressure gradient overhead will lead to breezier winds with
gusts up to 20-25 mph along/west of I-49 and 10-20 mph
elsewhere. MinRH values west of I-49 will be around 35-45%, but
will not advertise any fire weather threat given recent rainfall
and early fall fuels that are not primed for burning, along
with very marginal RH/wind combo.

Look for highs today in the 80s.

Tonight and Monday:

An upper trough and surface cold front encroach on the
northwestern CWA tonight and Monday. A dry airmass will reduce
PoPs/QPF, with 20-30% PoPs in areas NW of a line from Neosho to
Springfield to Lake of the Ozarks. QPF is less than 0.10". For
what it`s worth, NBM probabilities of QPF >= 0.25" is less than
15%. Instability is forecast to be minimal, resulting in NBM
Thunder Probabilities of less than 15%.

Look for highs ranging from the mid 70s NW to the mid 80s SE on
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The upper ridge builds back into the area for much of this
forecast period, resulting in the mainly focus being late week
into the weekend when a system could bring convection and
potentially severe storms to the area.

Look for mainly dry weather during this stretch with highs in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Model systems are in overall good agreement in bringing a more
active pattern starting Friday or Saturday, but solutions
differ on the strength and timing of mid level energy. This can
be seen in cluster analysis, which is pretty evenly split
between the 4 clusters (20-30% of total ensemble membership in
each cluster). Ensemble severe weather tools (CSU, CIPS, GEFS
AI, and ENS AI, for example) are showing some severe weather
potential, but confidence in this potential is low given the
dependency on exact details that will likely not become clear
for a few more days at least.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Breezy conditions are expected today at KJLN and KSGF.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus