490
FXUS63 KSGF 311028
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
428 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 6AM this morning
  for extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.
  Fog will dissipate by sunrise this morning.

- Light rain or drizzle will occur at times into this evening,
  mainly along and north of I-44.

- Fog development will be possible again late this evening into
  early Saturday morning.

- Well above average temperatures this weekend into early next
  week, from 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

- A system will bring a 20 to 40% chances for rain to the area
  during the middle of next week. Still some uncertainty on the
  exact timing and track of the system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

An upper level low is currently located across Oklahoma and
Kansas early this morning with an area of surface low pressure
located across northern Missouri. Some dense fog developed
across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri yesterday evening into early this morning.
Overall as the surface low pressure moves east, visibilities
have started to improve across the area. Currently the better
coverage in fog is west/southwest of the area and
east/northeast of the area. Some patchy dense fog will remain
possible over the next couple hours across portions of extreme
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this
morning, but coverage should continue to decrease over the rest
of the area during the morning hours with all the fog expected
to dissipate by sunrise this morning. Some patchy drizzle will
also be possible in these areas at times through the rest of the
early morning hours. The Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect
until 6AM this morning.

The upper level low and surface low will move east across the
region today. The overall better rainfall chances and amounts
will remain north of the area with the moisture that wraps
around the surface low. However, there will still be the
potential for some periods of drizzle/light rain at times mainly
along and north of I-44 this afternoon and evening as low level
moisture remains over the area along with low level lift. Lows
early this morning will not drop much more from current
temperatures with lows in the middle 40s are expected. The low
level clouds that are over the region will remain in place
across the area through the day today. As a result temperatures
will also not warm much more from current temperatures with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s expected this afternoon.

As the upper level low moves off to the east, the drizzle
potential will end from west to east by tonight. There will be
the potential for some light fog development again from late
this evening into early Saturday morning. Models show that at
least light fog is likely across much of the area with a few
models showing the potential for dense fog tonight into early
Saturday morning, but coverage could be more limited again.

Slightly cooler temperatures will move into the area behind the
upper level low tonight into Saturday morning as lows in the
lower to upper 30s occur.

An upper level ridge will start to build east into the region
on Saturday with clouds clearing from west to east during the
day. A warmer air mass will also advect into the region with the
ridge, with highs range from the lower 50s across central MO to
the lower 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

The upper level ridge will build over the region Sunday into
early next week with well above normal temperatures expected as
highs warm well into the 60s. An upper level shortwave trough
will move east across the northern Plains early next week. Some
of the ensemble model moves show a weak surface front moving
south into the area on Tuesday while others keep the front north
of the area. If the front moves south into the area highs in
the 50s would be likely north of the front, but if the front
remains north highs well into the 60s if not even lower 70s
would be more likely on Tuesday.

Models then show an upper level trough moving through the region
during the middle of next week, along with a cold front. There
are still differences between the ensemble models members on
the exact timing of the frontal passage. Some show as early as
Wednesday and others not until Thursday. There will be the
potential for some rain showers to occur with the frontal
passage, with some models showing enough instability for a few
isolated rumbles of thunder being possible with this activity.
A colder air mass will move into the area behind the front with
temperatures closer to, if not below, normal late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 427 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

An area of surface low pressure is located across northern
Missouri early this morning. Low level clouds remain over much
of the area early this morning as moisture wraps around the low,
though a few breaks in the clouds have occurred across portions
of southern MO. The low level clouds will continue/fill back in
this morning and remain in place into tonight. Some
drizzle/light rain will be possible at times into this evening
mainly long and north of I-44. Fog will also remain possible
across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern MO this
morning. The potential for fog development will occur again
across the area from late this evening into early Saturday
morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     KSZ101.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     MOZ088-093-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise