046
FXUS63 KSGF 161019
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
519 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30-60% coverage of showers and thunderstorms (lowest near
  Joplin and greatest near Rolla) this afternoon with localized
  heavy rainfall.

- Warm and mostly dry this weekend with highs returning to the
  90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees. Hottest
  conditions expected Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid
  90s to around 100, lows in the mid to upper 70s, and heat
  index values around 100-105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Fog is expected to develop into the early morning hours today,
with potential for locally dense fog possible east of Highway
65.

The overall pattern for today will be similar to yesterday, but
shower/storm activity will range from 30% coverage near Joplin
to 60% near Rolla. This is due to the upper low having shifted
west from yesterday, but being closer to the area. Similar to
yesterday, REFS and HREF PMM values are very locally 2-3 inches,
so some very localized, minor flooding may be possible mainly
toward Central MO. Highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected.

Shortwave energy moves through on Friday, leading to 20-30%
chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms. Most areas
should remain dry. Look for highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

This weekend will seeing increasing temperatures and mostly dry
conditions (PoPs < 20%). Look for highs in the low to mid 90s
with heat index values in the mid 90s to around 100.

Monday and Tuesday look to be the hottest day as the warmest
airmass advects over the area. Forecast high temps in the mid
90s to around 100 (hottest along/west of I-49) are plausible
given HREF probabilities for 850mb temps > 24C around 50% over
the west and sounding climatology showing several matches for
>24C 850mb temps and surface highs of 100 or higher. Will
advertise heat index values of 100-105 with HeatRisk in the
major category both days. Also noteworthy that Monday night
lows are only forecast to get into the mid to upper 70s.

The pattern for later in the week is less certain. The forecast
features cooler temps with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s with
minimal rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Expect fog and lowered ceilings at KBBG early this morning,
quickly improving to VFR. SGF may occasionally see lowered
ceilings and visibility early this morning, but should mostly
stay VFR. Otherwise, look for around a 30% chance for showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening at all sites,
with the majority of the time being dry and VFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus