459
FXUS63 KSGF 190733
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
233 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area through 8pm.
  Afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees.

- 30-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  and evening. Highest chances south of Interstate 44. Marginal
  (1 of 5) Severe Risk exists for wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Near average temperatures and dry for the rest of the week
  with the potential for below average temperatures late in the
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The upper level high
pressure center has begun shifting west of the area, closer to
the Rockies. The 00z KSGF sounding had shown the effects of
yesterday afternoons pop up storms with a near surface stable
layer however 2000j/kg of elevated CAPE exists above the
inversion. Moisture also remains high with a 1.53in PW value.
Most of the area was rain free early this morning given the lack
of a lifting mechanism and weak capping. A slow moving front
had shifted south into northern Kansas and northern Missouri.
There were a few small clusters of storms in central and eastern
Kansas with a few outflow boundaries moving southeast from
them. Temps were mild across the area with most locations in the
middle to upper 70s.

Today through Tonight:  Can`t rule out a few isolated showers
or storms this morning given some remnant boundaries however
expectations are for most of the area to remain dry through the
morning hours. Guidance suggests that a weak boundary/wind shift
will move through by late morning however it will not have much
impact on temps or moisture levels. The true/effective front
will not move into the area until later in the day. We expect
temps to climb into the middle to upper 90s by early afternoon.
Heat index values look to reach 100 degrees again and the Heat
Advisory remains in effect until 8pm.

Looking at the latest high res model guidance, a corridor of
3000j/kg of ML CAPE looks to develop by mid to late afternoon in
a west to east corridor across the area. Scattered thunderstorms
look to form in potentially two areas during the afternoon. One
area will likely be south of Highway 60, closer to the earlier
wind shift/pre frontal boundary. Another area of scattered
storms looks to develop further northwest along the actual front
from eastern Kansas into areas between Highway 54 and Interstate 44.
Much like the last few days, the environment will have plenty
of instability however shear will be weak. High PW values, steep
low level lapse rates and 0-3km ThetaE Diffs around -30C will
promote a favorable environment for severe pulse storms. Would
expect some severe downburst gusts around 60 mph and the area
is in a marginal severe risk from SPC. Storms will likely merge
and form small clusters during the evening hours, especially
along and south of I-44. This areas is where we are placing our
highest precip chances. HREF LPMM and the NBM shows small
pockets of 0.5-2inches of rain where storms move through. The
front will be moving through the area overnight which will
decrease precip chances.

Wednesday: A quicker movement of the front through the area has
now led to much lower rain chances during the day. Only a
10-20% chance of storms exists along the Missouri/Arkansas
border now. Most of the area will remain dry. Northerly winds
will begin to usher in drier air with dewpoints dropping into
the low 60s and PW values dropping back closer to 1 inch by the
end of the day. 850mb temps closer to the 18-20C range will
support highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s which is closer to
average.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Thursday into the Weekend: Ensemble clusters continue to be in
decent agreement that the area will remain in northerly flow
aloft with the upper level high well west of the area. 850mb
temps will drop closer to the 16-18C range therefore highs in
the 80s and low 90s look likely. Surface dewpoints should also
drop lower into the upper 50s to low 60s. Rain chances remain
less than 10 percent for late week and the weekend.

Next Week: Ensemble clusters then suggest that a strong upper
trough will move into the Great Lakes bringing mean 850mb temps
around 12-14C for our area. This would lead to well below
average temps and both CIPS extended analogs and the CPC
outlooks suggesting a high potential for below average temps.
While NBM spreads remain sizable in these transition patterns,
the signal for below normal temps is there with highs in the
upper 70s/low 80s and lows in the 50s looking favorable. The
precip signal is less certain and chances remain below 30
percent at this time for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will persist through most
of the TAF period. The chance of showers and storms will
increase during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. Have
gone with a prob30 group for now however we may need to go with
a tempo once confidence in timing increases. Winds will be light
out of the south until mid day when winds will shift to the
northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield