487
FXUS63 KSGF 031942
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
242 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Saturday.
  Temperatures will be 10-15+ degrees above normal with daily
  Heat Index values 100-110. Heat headline upgrades/extensions
  may be needed in the coming days.

- Minimal rain chances for the next week. Hot and dry conditions
  are worsening drought and increasing fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

An upper level ridge continues to build across the lower midwest and
Gulf coast with a low pressure system beginning to come onshore in
the Pacific Northwest and largely zonal flow across the northeast
with another low just north in eastern Canada. This pattern is deep
and persistent, evident through the atmospheric column down to the
surface. Minor areas of low pressure are riding around the top of
the ridge and continuing east to be caught up in the cyclonic
surface flow in the northeast. This pattern holds solidly through at
least early next week before long term models start to indicate
the eventual breakdown of the ridge.

The Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 8 p.m. Saturday. The
heat that we have been seeing the last couple of days is expected to
continue with perhaps minor fluctuations. Many areas reached a Heat
Index greater than 105 during peak heating yesterday, and with
dewpoint temperatures staying steady or perhaps increasing over the
next few days, duration criteria may be met for an Extreme Heat
Warning and necessitate upgrading at least part of the Heat
Advisory. It will be tricky to determine which counties may need
upgraded since max HI values seem to be varying quite a bit over
short distances each day, with local topography definitely a factor.
In any case, HI values are expected to remain below 110 today,
eliminating the need for urgency regrading an upgrade. That said, it
is wise to prepare for the possibility, and continue to practice
heat safety as we are all now no stranger to the hairdryer-like
conditions that have settled into the area.

NBM interquartile spreads for temperatures are only 2-3 degrees
through the entirety of the forecast period, indicating high
confidence in much above normal (10-15+ degrees) temperatures for
early September. The NWS HeatRisk tool is maxed out at Extreme
levels today and tomorrow for areas generally along and north of the
Plateau.

High temperatures this afternoon top out in the upper 90s and low
100s with HI values between 100 and 110. We are getting a hot breeze
out of the south reaching 10-15 mph (hence the hairdryer moniker).
Conditions will be much the same Friday. Clear skies will make
conditions even more oppressive in direct sunlight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Saturday, The ridge actually looks to retrograde a bit, though this
will change little for the Ozarks besides ensure that it`s not
moving on anytime soon. Winds get very light through the weekend as
surface high pressure passes over, but maximized height rises and
clear skies will ensure that daytime highs still approach or exceed
100 degrees. Heat Index values look to be highest Saturday, with the
entire area experiencing HI values between 100 and 110.

A weak backdoor cold front move through the state throughout
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The better supporting energy
looks to stay to the east, however some ensembles are outputting
very splotchy areas of light rain. This is not a scenario I would
put much stock in as our deliverance from the dry spell, but there
is currently a 10-15% chance to see a few raindrops Saturday, which
is more than we have had in a while. It does look to bring a
*slight* cooldown to our far east/south-central Missouri for Monday
where highs will be in the low 90s...but this won`t involve much of
our CWA, and will be short-lived.

The global models indicate that Fujiwhara-ing low pressure centers
ejecting out of the northwest midweek will flatten the ridge as they
move by to the north and send a surface cold front south that
will be approaching the area by Thursday morning. Though this
scenario is uncertain as we begin talking about 8+ days out from
now, it is perhaps the first glimmer of hope that we may at
least temporarily see temperatures decrease by a smidge.
However, the CPC 8-14 day hazards outlook does indicate that we
still have a slight risk (20- 40%) for Extreme Heat September
11-17.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Southerly winds up to 12 kts
today with occasional gusts to 20 kts. Winds decrease after 06Z
with a small shift clockwise to the southwest. Clear skies and
no precipitation expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 3:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 102/1954
KVIH: 100/1897

September 4:
KJLN: 102/1954

September 5:
KSGF: 99/1998
KJLN: 103/1998
KUNO: 101/1954

September 6:
KSGF: 100/1960
KJLN: 101/1954
KUNO: 101/1990

September 7:
KJLN: 101/1998

September 8:
KSGF: 98/1960
KJLN: 98/1955
KVIH: 100/1901
KUNO: 99/1990

September 9:
KSGF: 98/1939
KJLN: 100/1947
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 99/1980


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 3:
KSGF: 74/2011

September 4:
KSGF: 75/1913

September 5:
KSGF: 76/1998

September 6:
KSGF: 76/1925

September 7:
KSGF: 77/1899

September 8:
KSGF: 76/1925

September 9:
KSGF: 75/1939

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson
CLIMATE...Nelson