061
FXUS63 KSGF 262316
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
616 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the area through 7 AM
  Tuesday. Heat index values around 110 to 115 are expected.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect across the area from 7 AM Tuesday
  through 7 PM Tuesday evening as afternoon and early evening
  heat index values range from 100 to 110 degrees.

- Some rain chances (10-40%) will occur at times across portions
  of the area Tuesday into the weekend. There will be dry
  periods during this time and not all locations cloud be
  impacted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A cumulus field is starting to pop up over southern MO this
afternoon. The best instability will be over the south/east
portion of the state, but dry air may limit any convection that
attempts to form today. For any shower/thunderstorm that can
sustain itself, it`ll be very pulse-like and will not last very
long. Biggest threats would be lightning and brief heavy
downpours. As for high temperatures today, most of the area is
in the low to mid 90s with daytime heating increasing those
temperatures by a few more degrees before the end of the day.
Most of the area is forecast to hit the upper 90s today with
heat index values between 110 to 115 degrees with the hottest
temperatures over SE KS/SW MO. Lows tonight will be warm and
close to 80 degrees with mostly clear skies. Southwesterly winds
will continue through the rest of today with another warm day
expected tomorrow. Due to the persistent warm daytime and
overnight temperatures, the Extreme Heat Warning has been
extended until 7 AM Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

As mentioned, in the previous discussion, the Extreme Heat
Warning will continue through Monday night due to heat index
values above 110 degrees. Highs will be in the upper 90s to
lower 100s, very similar to today. The dewpoints may be a bit
lower by a degree or two tomorrow, but the confidence in that
factor bringing down heat index values enough to just go with an
advisory instead of a warning just wasn`t there for us. Also,
the heat related impacts will be the same either way. As soon as
the Extreme Heat Warning expires on Tuesday morning, a Heat
Advisory will replace it and continue through 7 PM Tuesday.
Tuesday will be a bit trick on whether or not every county will
still need a Heat Advisory. This is due to a few models showing
a decaying system moving through our western counties on
Tuesday. This would likely bring cloud cover and hopefully
cooler temperatures and heat index values that wouldn`t meet
advisory criteria. However, not much rain is expected in our
area due to dry air that will likely be in place.

The rest of the week looks a bit more seasonal for this time of
year with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values in the
90s as well. There will be daily low-end rain chances through
the rest of the week as the ridge begins to shift slightly off
to the west and the trough that`s currently over New England
begins to dig and expand further west. This will allow for a few
shortwaves to make it through the area and bring us 15-20% POPs.
Friday is expected to be the best day for rain with POPs near
20-50% as a stronger shortwave moves over the eastern portion of
the state. Areas east of Highway 65 have the best chance to see
accumulating rainfall with amounts near 1". With the rain also
comes a little cooldown with highs in the 80s going into this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

High pressure remains in control of the regions weather and will
bring VFR flight conditions to the region through the next 24
hours. Winds will be generally light and variable.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
     Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
     Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Hatch