786
FXUS63 KSGF 171120
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
520 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire
  weather conditions east of Highway 65 late this morning into
  this afternoon.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible (20-40%) at times from mid morning into this
  afternoon and again late evening into early Tuesday morning.
  Not all locations will be affected by this activity.

- Seasonable temperatures in the 60s today, then returning to
  well above normal Tuesday with highs climbing well into the
  70s...then falling into the weekend.

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will then occur at times
  from late Wednesday into Friday as showers and thunderstorms
  move across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

An upper-level ridge is currently located over the Plains and
will move east into the area today. Warm air advection in the
low levels of the atmosphere will occur this morning into this
afternoon. The surface warm front will slowly lift northeast
through the area. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 70s
across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri,with highs in the lower to to middle 60s occurring
across the rest of the area.

A dry air mass remains in place across the area early this
morning. Surface moisture will slowly increase from west to
east across the area today. Humidity values in the 25 to 35%
range are expected to occur generally along and east of Highway
65 by late morning. RH values around 20% to upper teens are
possible across portions of central Missouri. Moisture will
slowly increase from west to east this afternoon but will be
slowest to recover across portions of central Missouri, where
the drier conditions could persist into early this evening.

Gusty southeasterly winds will also develop across the area
today, the strongest winds will be across the western portions
of the area. As the winds increase and combine with the dry air
mass across the eastern portions of the area, some elevated fire
weather conditions will develop late this morning into this
afternoon.

Some uncapped MUCAPE will develop this morning and move east
across the area into this afternoon. A drier air mass is in
place especially in the 500 to 250mb range, which will limit
the instability that can be realized. As warm air advection
spreads northeast across the area, lift will increase and some
isolated showers and storms will be possible, possibly as early
as mid morning occurring into the afternoon hours. Coverage
will be limited and most locations should remain dry.

An upper-level shortwave low is current over the Rocky Mountain
region early this morning. The trough will continue to move
northeast today and into the Plains by this evening before
moving east across Iowa late tonight into Tuesday. Uncapped
MUCAPE will develop again later this evening across western
Missouri ahead of the trough, spreading east across the area
into early Tuesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible late this evening into
tonight, mainly along and east of Highway 65. Coverage will
again be limited with a dry air mass remaining in place in the
mid levels of the atmosphere, especially considering the better
lift and upper-level support remains north of the area. Some
small hail may be possible with a few of the storms.

As moisture continue to increase across the area this evening
into tonight, some low-level clouds and maybe some periods of
drizzle could occur across portions of southern Missouri.

A warm air mass will be in place across the area again Tuesday
as 850mb temperature warm into the 14 to 16C range. Highs are
expected to range from the low 70s across the northern portions
of the area to mid to even upper 70s across far southern
Missouri. Temperatures may approach record highs on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Another upper-level trough is currently digging off the West
Coast and will continue to move south and into the southwestern
CONUS on Tuesday as it closes into an upper-level low. The low
will then slowly move east into the southern Plains by Thursday
and northeast through our region by Friday. Overall, the system
has slowed, so much of the day on Wednesday is now expected to
remain dry.

A weak cold front/moisture boundary will sag south of the area
by Tuesday night and will remain south of the area. The air mass
will only be slightly cooler behind the front, but cloud cover
will likely increase over the area on Wednesday. As a result,
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected on Wednesday.
Anywhere some breaks in the clouds occur, some low to mid 70s
could be possible on Wednesday.

Surface low pressure will move northeast across the Plains on
Thursday ahead of the upper-level trough. This will send the
boundary back to the north as a warm front on Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Scattered showers and storms could start
to develop across southern Missouri as early as Wednesday
evening, lifting north into Thursday. As the surface low and an
associated cold front move east across the area Thursday into
Thursday night, additional showers and thunderstorms will
develop.

Instability return is expected to remain more limited
this far north, limiting the severe thunderstorm potential
across the area. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will
occur across the area from Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Rain will linger across the area into Friday, ending Friday
night as the upper-level trough moves across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

High clouds are currently spreading across the area early this
morning. Low level clouds will start to move northeast into and
across the area this morning MVFR ceilings will be possible,
especially at the KJLN sites by mid mornings. Ceiling could
bounce between MVFR and VFR at times at the KSGF and KBBG sites
before fully becoming MVFR by this evening. The MVFR ceilings
could then persist into the overnight hours. Some IFR ceilings
could be possible tonight into Tuesday morning.

Gusty southeasterly winds will develop this morning and continue
through into this evening gradually weakening into tonight. Low
level wind shear will also be possible at the TAF sites this
evening and tonight. Some patchy drizzle could be possible this
later this evening into tonight across

There could also be some isolated showers and thunderstorms that
develop and move east across the area this morning into the
afternoon hours, but coverage will be limited and not all
locations will be affected. Additional isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible later this evening into early
Tuesday morning. Again coverage will be limited and not all
locations will be affected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

For context, average high temps for middle
November are in the 55-59 degree range.

Record High Temperatures:

November 18:
KSGF: 78/1930
KJLN: 76/1999
KVIH: 74/1981
KUNO: 74/2017

November 19:
KJLN: 75/1950

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Wise