436
FXUS63 KSGF 231104
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
504 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in above normal temperatures occurring across
  the region this week especially on Monday and Tuesday.

- These warmer temperatures will support melting of the
  existing snowpack.

- A weak front will bring low rain chances (10-20%) to parts of
  the area on Wednesday, but many locations will likely remain
  dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis revealed a shortwave moving east across Texas with
associated cloud cover. Another, weaker shortwave was located
across Nebraska and South Dakota, moving southeast. The 00z
sounding measured a very dry airmass with a PW value of only
0.13in. Surface high pressure to the southeast of the area has
allowed for light southerly winds. These winds have kept the
lower atmosphere mixed with temps in the middle to upper 20s.

Today through Tonight: Warmer air at 850mb (3-6C) will
overspread the area from the west today. This should allow for
temps to rise into the lower to middle 50s across the area. The
limiting factor to temps could be some scattered high clouds
(associated with the incoming shortwave) and existing snowpack
(4 inch snow depth at SGF currently). Therefore if clouds are
thicker then temps could be a few degrees cooler. Light south
winds will again keep temps a few degrees warmer tonight with
lows in the lower 30s. Some area will not drop below freezing.

Monday: Even warmer air at 850mb moves in (8-10C) and conditional
climatology study would suggest highs in the lower to middle
60s with clear to partly cloudy skies. We are expecting a little
more cloud cover with another passing shortwave which could
impact temps, however current NBM highs of lower 60s look
reasonable. Winds will also be a little stronger with gusts
around 20mph. Any remaining snowcover will likely melt by the
end of Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Tuesday: Likely the warmest day of the week as even warmer air
at 850mb moves in (10-12C). This would put the area solidly in
the middle to perhaps upper 60s range as long as clouds remain
thin. This would be about 15 degrees above average for late
February.

Wednesday and Thursday: Ensembles continue to suggest a
shortwave will drop southeast into the area during the day with
an associated cold front. Fairly good run to run consistency has
been shown with the overall structure of this progressive
system. Latest NBM and LREF precip chances continue to be low,
in the 10-20 percent range with the highest chances northeast of
Springfield. Moisture will likely be a limiting factor with
this system given its progressive nature from the northwest and
limited moisture return time from the south. Depending on the
timing of the front, above average temps may be able to occur.
Slightly cooler air aloft will build in for Thursday

Friday into next weekend: Ensemble variance increases as a
shortwave looks to move into the southwest US and undercut a
ridge. Currently the area looks to remain in a dry northwest
flow pattern with above average temps as we await the southwest
US system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 459 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with passing high clouds at times. Winds will remain
out of the south around 10kts or less. There is some marginal
low level wind shear possible tonight at SGF and JLN however
its too low to include at this time.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield