673
FXUS63 KSGF 221722
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry today.

- Scattered rain chances (20-40%) west of Hwy 65 Wednesday.

- More widespread rain chances (70-90%) Thursday and Friday.

- Scattered rain lingers through the weekend and into early next
  week.

- Consecutive days of consistent rain have the potential
  to result in flooding impacts, particularly in the western
  portions of the region where more rain is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The remaining Flood Warning and Flood Advisories have been allowed
to expire this morning. The MODOT traveler map shows that some rural
low water crossings are still causing a handful of backroad
closures, but for the most part, the rainfall is finally making its
way into the soil and waterways. Speaking of which, there are still
several River Flood Warnings that extend to various points in the
week.

Today will be nice. Southerly flow will allow for highs to reach the
upper 70s to around 80. Sunshine will be filtered through a few high
clouds. Get outside and enjoy it, as it won`t last. Clouds will
begin to build in from the west overnight as the shortwave
approaches, keeping lows in the west in the mid to upper 50s while
areas in the east will experience more radiational cooling overnight
and cool into the lower 50s.

Precipitation begins to creep into the west Wednesday morning.
Models differ quite a bit on how this will play out, but the
expectation is for rain to stay relatively isolated-to-scattered and
remain west of Hwy 65 for Wednesday. Southerly flow persists, and
lows will be warm again Wednesday night, in the mid 50s to
around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Rain returns in earnest on Thursday as a series of shortwaves and a
weak surface low make a more direct march across the plateau.
Precipitable water will be very high, up to 1.5", making for
widespread efficient rainfall. This activity won`t be severe, but
there may be some thunder in the heavier storms. We will begin to
see a bit of a temperature modulation back down into the mid to low
70s for highs through the end of the week as our southerly flow
regime is interrupted.

Rain continues through Friday morning but begins to decrease in
coverage/likelihood throughout the day. Yet another shortwave moves
through Saturday, and scattered showers will continue through Sunday.

On Monday, for a "change", it looks like a proper, deep low pressure
system develops across the upper plains, which will be the new
source of rain chances early week.

It probably goes without saying that all of this additional rain on
top of the rain we saw over the weekend may cause more flooding
problems. The saturation of the soil, elevated river and lake
levels, and abnormally high precipitable water values are all things
we are taking into account as we anticipate the impacts of this
activity. To add some perspective on potential amounts, areas west
of Hwy 65 have up to a 30% chance of seeing 2 or more inches of rain
through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Some thin high level clouds are expected during the period, but
we should remain VFR at all 3 TAF sites for the 18z TAFS. A
southerly wind around 10 kts this afternoon will back slightly
to more southeasterly around 5 to 10 kts tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Lindenberg