573
FXUS63 KSGF 012349
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
649 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some mild heat and rain relief today through Thursday before
  heat, humidity, and isolated rain chances (15-30%) return for
  the Independence Day Weekend and onwards.

- Greatest chance for precipitation is Sunday and Monday
  (30-45%) due to a signal for a weak front/trough passage.
  Details are still uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows dry air aloft behind a passing shortwave that
is now across the Ohio River Valley. The 12z KSGF sounding only
measured 1.15in of PW which is the lowest its been in over a
week. Surface high pressure has settled in Kansas with light
northerly winds advecting in lower dewpoints. Skies were mostly
sunny except for some cirrus and cumulus south of I-44.

This Afternoon through Tonight: Surface high pressure will
settle into Missouri tonight. Light winds, saturated soils and
high pressure moving in typically allows for decent fog
potential however given the cirrus moving in that could limit
the fog to more of a river valley/shallow nature by morning. Low
temps look to solidly drop into the lower to middle 60s with
some areas potentially dropping into the upper 50s, especially
those typical cooler valleys and wind protected areas. Again,
the high cirrus could limit the full extent of cooling.

Wednesday: High pressure will be sliding south and east of the
area and winds will be slowly turning out of the south. Given
the dry airmass in place, no precip is expected and with mostly
sunny skies, NBM high temps in the middle to upper 80s look
reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Thursday: Even though moisture will slowly be increasing, mid
level height rises and lack of a strong lifting mechanism look
to keep the area dry again for Thursday. NBM high temps in the
upper 80s to near 90 look reasonable.

Independence Day into the weekend: Mid level heights rise even
more for the 4th of July and thinking that the only shot at
precip may be along and west of I-49 where precip chances are 20
percent or less. Should see high temps around 90 degrees. Some
weak energy looks to slide through Saturday and pops are around
20-30 percent to account for this. Again, given the warm air
aloft, precip should be pretty isolated/scattered in nature.
Additional energy moves in Sunday and Monday and may allow for
slightly more coverage of precip with chances increasing over
40%. Overall, high temps look to reach the upper 80s to perhaps
lower 90s which is actually right around average for the time of
year. Heat indicies will gradually climb into the middle to
upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Northerly winds will occur early this evening then light winds
will occur overnight in Wednesday morning. South to
southwesterly winds will then develop during the day Wednesday
generally remaining below 10kt. Some patchy light fog
development will be possible early Wednesday especially in
valleys confidence is low in the TAF sites being impacted at
this time. Other than any patchy morning fog VFR conditions are
expected across the area through the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise