478
FXUS63 KSGF 040537
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1237 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect mainly north of I-44 this evening
  through Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts in the watch area
  of 1-3 inches are expected, with locally up to 5 inches
  possible.

- There is a Marginal to Slight risk of severe thunderstorms
  this afternoon into tonight. Golf ball size hail, 60 mph
  winds, and an isolated, brief tornado threat are potential
  hazards.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible through
  the weekend, leading to additional risks for severe
  thunderstorms and flooding. The greatest potential for severe
  storms and flooding after tonight is Thursday night into
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The biggest change in the short term is an increase in severe
potential late this afternoon into this evening ahead of the
main line. RAP analysis shows 3,000-3,500 J/kg and effective
shear of 25-35 kts over the central CWA where convection has
started to initiate. We have a weather balloon going up right
now which will provide a better picture of the near term
environment. Backed surface winds (160 degree direction at KSGF
and other obs along and east of Hwy 65) make for a curved
and likely streamwise hodograph, although not elongated due to
weak to moderate shear. Think this isolated to scattered
discrete convection could become severe with golf ball size
hail, 60 mph winds, and perhaps a brief, isolated tornado
threat.

The cold front and main line will move in from the west probably
closer to 7pm in the western CWA. Given flow parallel to the
front, upscale growth is expected with bowing segments moving
toward the NE. The main severe threat with these storms will be
60 mph winds and perhaps a brief, isolated tornado in ideally
oriented bowing segments. Flooding threat is still on track in
the Flood Watch area (mainly along and NW of I-44) given ample
moisture, training storms, and other favorable environmental
factors. In the Watch area, which goes through noon on
Wednesday, forecast rainfall is 1-3 inches with locally up to 5
inches possible per 12Z HREF LPMM data.

Models have trended toward holding on to convection longer into
Wednesday evening, with a low end potential for some strong
storms, as the front lingers over the area. Moisture will still
be in place and training is possible along the front, so the
Flood Watch may need to be extended through Wednesday evening.
12Z HREF PMM data shows potential for localized 4-5 inches of
additional rainfall on Wednesday, with the highest amounts
generally along/east of Hwy 65, along/north of Hwy 60, and
along/south of I-44.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Emphasis this period is additional rainfall and severe
potential, especially Thursday night into Friday as shortwave
energy may cause an MCS and additional training convection to
impact the area. SPC has issued day 3 and 4 slight risks to
account for this.

Another episode of severe and flooding potential is Saturday
night into Sunday, but models have trended south of the area and
that remains the case. SPC`s day 5 outlook is south of the CWA
as well. Still, this bears watching given the proximity.

Outside of the severe/flooding concern time frames, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each period through the long
term, but no expecting all day washouts with this activity.
Confidence decreases significantly late this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue at the TAF sites through
the night, with the thunderstorm potential mainly at SGF and
BBG. Ceilings will begin to lower into IFR overnight at SGF and
JLN. Winds will also begin to turn northerly overnight into
Wednesday. Additional rain chances exist Wednesday, mainly at
SGF and BBG with JLN remaining mostly dry.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>081-088>091-093-094-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Burchfield