355
FXUS63 KSGF 050553
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1253 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 80s to low 90s through the weekend. Record
  warmth possible.

- No measurable rain chances in the forecast for the remainder
  of this week into early next week. Minimal chances for
  rainfall through mid-October.

- Fire Weather conditions will be monitored as very dry air and
  no significant rain is expected through mid-October which
  will continue to dry fuels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

No significant changes to the weather pattern will lead to
similar conditions tonight and Saturday as have occurred the
past few days. Warm and dry weather is forecast with clear
skies. Over night lows will fall into the middle 50s in the east
to the lower 60s in the west. Winds will begin to increase
through the day Saturday with occasional gusts from 15 to 25
mph by Saturday afternoon.

Record warmth is possible again Saturday, especially at Joplin
(see climate section below for records), with highs ranging from
the mid 80s east to the low 90s west of Highway 65. Low
humidity will prevent heat from being a major health concern
concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Another day of unusual heat is expected Sunday. A cold front
will move through the region Sunday and bring a slightly cooler
airmass into the region though temperatures will still be 5-10
degrees above average. These conditions will change little for
the rest of the long term period. Record heat looks less likely
for Sunday, but see climate section below for specific records.

Long term forecast concerns remain centered around increasing
drought and watching for fire weather conditions. See the Fire
Weather section below for more specifics to that threat.

The forecast will remain dry through the middle to end of next
week. Longer term ensemble data and CPC outlooks point to drier
than normal conditions and minimal rainfall potential through
October 18th, then slightly increasing potential for rainfall
toward the end of the month. Highs look to generally remain a
little above normal with values in the mid 70s to mid 80s
through the middle of October, then cooling some into the 70s
later in the month.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

The forecast probabilities of combined winds >20 mph and RH
< 30% continues to show less than a 5% chance over the next
1-2 weeks. This is expected to keep critical fire weather (red
flag) risk low at this time, but some elevated fire weather
potential exists. Given dry and drying fuels, will continue to
monitor the potential for red flag conditions closely.

Through this weekend:

Abnormally hot conditions with record to near highs possible
each day.

Today...Light winds with Min RH of 35-45%

Saturday...Elevated fire weather west of Highway 65. S-SW winds
10-15 mph gusting to 15-25 mph (strongest west of Highway 65).
Min RH 30-40% west of Highway 65, 35-50% east of Highway 65.

Sunday...Elevated fire weather across much of the area. N-NW
winds 10-15 mph gusting to 15-20 mph. Min RH 20-30% (perhaps
lower) across much of the area and 30-40% across south-central
Missouri.

Next week (October 7-12):

No rain forecast. Temperatures will be cooler but still above
normal with highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Daily dry Min RH values
of 20-30% along and north of I-44 and 30-40% south of I-44. No
notable wind events, but will be watching closely.

1-2 weeks (October 13-19):

Confidence in specifics decreases with time, but almost all
model data shows little to no rain through the middle to end of
October. RH values are more difficult to assess, but a
majority of ensemble members show a dry airmass remaining in
place and >50% probabilities for daily RH values dropping below
30%. Hard to give many details related to winds, but right now
fewer than 10% of ensemble model members show winds >=25 mph any
of the days in this period. Still, we will be watching closely
given continued drying of fuels.

We starting to see leaf fall begin in some areas which will begin
to add to fuel load. Additionally, first fall frost and freezes
occur in October with middle to late month the average time of
occurrence across the Ozarks.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Record High Temperatures:

October 4:
KSGF: 91/1938
KJLN: 91/1963

October 5:
KSGF: 93/1981
KJLN: 91/1963
KVIH: 91/1897
KUNO: 91/1981

October 6:
KSGF: 89/1938
KJLN: 90/1963
KUNO: 87/2018

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Titus
FIRE WEATHER...Titus
CLIMATE...Titus