461
FXUS63 KSGF 041100
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in multiple rounds of heavy rainfall through
  this weekend. Increasing confidence in this resulting in
  potentially significant flooding, especially in south-central
  Missouri. Today into Saturday look to be the most impactful
  days. A Flood Watch remains in effect along and southeast of
  Interstate 44.

- Marginal(1 of 5) to Moderate(4 of 5) risk of severe storms
  today into this evening. Large hail will be the primary
  hazard. There will be a conditional risk for tornadoes over
  part of south central Missouri.

- Turning colder late in the weekend into early next week and we
  have a frost/freeze potential both Sunday night and Monday
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions:  Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show a highly amplified upper level pattern
over the CONUS with a large trough extending from northern
Manitoba into the Baja region. Broad southwesterly flow aloft
continues from the southern plains through the mid Mississippi
valley and into the Ohio valley. Strong low level flow from the
Gulf across the lower Mississippi valley and into the TN and OH
valley with a deep moisture axis from east TX into the OH
valley. At the surface, a frontal boundary remains south and
east of the forecast area with several waves of low pressure
along the front which extends into TX. The entire CWA remains on
the cool side of the front for now.

Rest of the overnight period: The next wave of precipitation
will continue to approach from the southwest, but is expected to
mainly hold off reaching our CWA until after 11-12z.

Today: This next wave of showers and embedded thunderstorms will
expand across the area this morning as a 40 to 45kt low level
jet overruns the surface front which will remain to the south of
the area this morning. Some weak elevated instability might be
supportive of some small hail during the morning. Heavy rain is
expected over the area which may start to lead to some flooding
in areas that receive multiple rounds of rain.

As we head through the afternoon, surface low pressure and a
warm front will try to make it into south central Missouri from
the southwest. The most likely scenario would be for the front
to make it into our far southeast counties. For those counties
that do get into the warm sector south of the front, there will
be a several hour window where surface based convection will be
possible along with the potential for large hail and tornadoes.
For this reason, SPC has lifted the moderate risk to include
parts of Howell and Oregon counties while the enhanced risk
includes at least parts of Shannon, Texas, Douglas, Ozark and
Taney counties. While instability doesn`t look overly
impressive, within the warm sector there would be enough surface
based CAPE with the amount of low level shear present for the
tornado risk.

In addition to the severe risk, an axis of PW values around 1.5"
to 1.7" will extend over south central Missouri within that
moisture axis extending from east TX into the OH valley.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain will support widespread rainfall
amounts from 1 to 3" during the day today along and southeast of
the I-44 corridor. This will likely lead to some flooding
across these areas which remain in a flood watch through
Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms continue tonight with the main area of
precipitation across the eastern half of the CWA. The severe
weather risk will continue over this area through the evening,
but should end by the late evening. The heavy rain and flooding
risk will persist over the eastern Ozarks where an additional 1
to 4 inches of rain will be possible during the night. Area
rivers in the eastern Ozarks will begin to rise quickly, and
move above flood state tonight and continue to rise into the
weekend, some into moderate and close to major flood stages.

For Saturday, the next wave of energy will begin to push into
the area with showers and thunderstorms continuing. While most
of the severe storm potential should be southeast of the
forecast area, the heavy rain potential will persist, especially
through south central Missouri where the heaviest rain will have
already occurred.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The upper level trough will finally begin to
push into the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Cold air
advection on the back side of the low may cause some rain to mix
with light snow during this time frame with only a dusting
expected for those areas receiving light snow. As the upper wave
shifts east of the area on Sunday into Sunday night, the
precipitation chances should come to an end.

Colder temperatures are expected late in the weekend into early
next week and for those with agricultural interests, we may see
some frost and sub-freezing temperatures Sunday night into
Monday morning, with near freezing temperatures again on Monday
night into Tuesday morning. We do have some upper 20s going in
the forecast for Sunday night, so if you have some plants
already outside you might want to be prepared to cover them or
bring them inside for a couple days.

By Tuesday we get into more of a zonal pattern and we should see
temperatures moderate back into the 60s for highs and possibly
some 70s in the west by Wednesday. 70s are expected for all of
the area by Thursday.

Outside of the 7 day outlook, it looks like upper level ridging
will build into the area and we should see generally dry and
warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

IFR/LIFR ceilings will occur today as heavy rain and
thunderstorms begin to move into southern Missouri this morning.
Visibilities may be reduced down to 3 SM in and around these
thunderstorms. Biggest threat with these storms is large hail up
to 2 inches. Expect rain to persist through most of the day
with a front pushing through around 03-04z Saturday, switching
the winds to the north. A break in the rain will occur just
before midnight tonight but ceilings will remain low overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Expected rainfall amounts within the 25th and 75 percentile range
for the remainder of the event:

Nevada, Warsaw: 1.0" to 2.1".

Joplin, Bolivar, Osage Beach: 1.4" to 3.5".

Springfield, Lebanon, Fort Leonard Wood, Rolla: 2.3" to 5"

Branson, Houston, Salem: 3.2 to 6.4"

West Plains, Eminence, Alton: 3.6" to 6.5"



High end amounts (10% chances of happening):

Nevada, Warsaw: 2.8" to 3.0"

Joplin, Bolivar, Osage Beach: 3.5" to 4.2"

Springfield, Lebanon, Fort Leonard Wood, Rolla: 5.6" to 6.1"

Branson, Houston, Salem: 6.4" to 7.8"

West Plains, Eminence, Alton: 7.3" to 7.5"

All of this rain will lead to flooding, especially along and
southeast of the I-44 corridor where a flood watch remains in
effect. Significant river flooding is also expected in these
areas with current river forecasts based off of these rainfall
projections bring river stages in to the moderate to near major
flooding categories over the weekend.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Soria
HYDROLOGY...Lindenberg