966
FXUS63 KSGF 201123
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southern edge of a thunderstorm complex may bring a few
  thunderstorms to far northern parts of our CWA in central MO
  tonight.

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through 7 PM Thursday.
  Daily Heat Index values in excess of 100 degrees and warm
  overnight lows will result in an extended period of heat
  danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Upper level ridge continues to expand over the southern U.S.
with main upper flow remaining well to the north over the
northern CONUS. A west-east stationary surface front was located
across southern Nebraska and Iowa, while surface low pressure
and a trough was located from southwest KS into northeast KS.
Regional radar showing main convection aligning with these
surface features across northern KS and eastern Nebraska,
southern Iowa and northern MO. Flow will be generally easterly,
however convection over north central MO was tracking more
southeasterly. That being said, current convection should remain
north of the CWA for the remainder of tonight into Sunday
morning. Will again see some gusty southwest winds ahead of the
surface low and with high pressure to our south, from the late
morning through the afternoon, with some gusts up to 30 mph
possible. Another hot and humid day is expected with highs from
the low to mid 90s and heat index values from 100 to 109. Lows
tonight will only dip back into the low to mid 70s.

Another thunderstorm complex is expected to develop north of the
area later today into tonight. The southern edge of the MCS may
clip our far northern counties in central MO and have included
some 15-25% rain chances. If the storms do make it into the
area, there is a marginal(1 of 5) risk that a few storms may
produce wind gusts up to 60 mph. However, the majority if not
all of the convection will be north of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

The heat and humidity will persist through much of the week as
the surface ridge begins to amplify over the area. We are not
expecting much in the way of precipitation chances and similar
temperatures in the mid 90s each day and heat index values from
100 to 109 each day through at least Thursday. We have decided
to extend the extreme heat warning through 7 pm Thursday. Things
become a bit more uncertain for Friday into Saturday as the
ridge breaks down somewhat with shortwave energy moving out of
the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

For the 12z TAFS, any convection should stay north of the
forecast terminals through the period with VFR conditions
expected. There will be some wind gusts from mid morning through
the afternoon out of the southwest up to around 25 kts possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg