935
FXUS63 KSGF 110535
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional low end potential for showers and storms today into this
  weekend while turning warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Rest of today: 2,000-2,500 J/kg of instability has developed
over sunny far south-central MO while shear is weak at around 20
kts. This may lead to a couple strong to marginally severe
storms this afternoon and early evening, with localized 60 mph
winds the primary threat. The area of concern should mainly be
southeast of a line from Gainesville to Salem.

Over the rest of the area, some light showers are possible, with
temperatures mainly in the 70s.

Tonight and Friday: The mid-level wave over south-central KS
will settle over the area tonight while closing off and
lingering through Friday. This will prompt chances for showers
and possibly thunderstorms mainly south of I-44. The highest
coverage/chances will be late tonight into early Friday morning
at 50-70%. Otherwise look for highs mainly in the 80s Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

This weekend into next week: A mid-level high will develop over
the southeastern CONUS, with increasing heights over our region.
This will result in a return to above normal temperatures with
highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Occasional
shortwave energy nearby may lead to some showers and storms at
times, but predictability is quite low as better chances will be
north of the CWA. There is a marginal severe risk touching the
northwestern CWA Saturday as strong to severe storms may develop
north of the area and outflow count push a few storms into the
CWA, but confidence in any details is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Showers and some storms are moving east across portions of
northern Arkansas into south central/southeastern Missouri early
this morning. This activity will mainly remain south of the TAF
sites this morning, there is a low chance a shower clips the
KBBG site this morning into this afternoon.

Some patchy ground fog will be possible this morning mainly
across central Missouri into southeastern Kansas. As the showers
move east this some MVFR ceilings will be possible at the KSGF
and KBBG sites early this morning with a low chance for brief
period of IFR conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Wise