420
FXUS63 KSGF 212231
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
531 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (10-30%) for a few isolated showers and
  thunderstorms across central and south Missouri through the
  late afternoon and early evening.

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Thursday
  evening. Daily Heat Index values in excess of 100 degrees and
  warm overnight lows will result in an extended period of
  dangerous heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Through Evening: A morning/overnight system continues to
gradually dissipate across portions of west central and central
MO. While CAMs have not handled this activity overly well, there
was general agreement on afternoon dissipation. However, a
remaining uncertainty is potential redevelopment along a few
outflow boundaries. In general, confidence remains low in this
potential. The area of greatest concern (10-30% PoPs) appears to
be focused across portions of central into south central MO.
This is where satellite imagery depicts a thickening cumulus
field. A recent mesoanalysis would suggest a marginally
favorable environment for isolated pulse thunderstorms through
the late afternoon into the early evening. This aligns with the
greatest instability axis (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Mid-level
lapse rates remain lower, only around 6.5 C/km. With that being
said, the Ozark Pulse Thunderstorm Index highlights a corridor
for a few isolated non-severe thunderstorms. In general, many
locations remain dry through this evening. Any areas that do
see activity, may see lightning, heavy downpours, and wind gusts
up to 40-50 mph. Severe thunderstorms are not expected, though
localized flooding cannot be ruled out if repeated thunderstorms
occur over the same area.

Otherwise, temperatures have varied from north to south with the
lingering effects of morning convection and clouds. Temperatures
will struggle to break the 80s across central MO, with lower 90s
to the south. This is where heat index values have climbed into
the upper 90s to around 105. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in
effect today and continues through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Tuesday-Sunday: The upper level ridge builds strengths into
mid-week, with the northern edge of the ridge axis becoming
displaced further north. This will push any rain chances further
north of the area, compared to last few days. Thus, dry
conditions are expected to prevail through at least Thursday.
Dangerous heat remains the main headline with daily highs in
the lower to middle 90s, and heat index values around 100 to
105. Overnight lows provide minimal relief with lows in the
middle 70s. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through
Thursday evening. Further extension of heat products may be
warranted beyond Thursday into next weekend. Overall, the heat
and humidity is here to stay for awhile, as the latest medium to
long range guidance have persistently hinted at. Low PoPs
(10-30%) remain in the forecast on Thursday night and Friday
with a bit of a collapse in the ridge, allowing a front to sink
closer. Continue to monitor for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

A cumulus cloud field developed across the area this afternoon
and will start to dissipate early this evening. Cumulus clouds
are expected to develop and overspread the TAF sites again on
Tuesday afternoon.

There is a low chance for an isolated shower/storm this evening
into tonight but confidence in a TAF site being impact is too
low to include any mention in the TAFs.

Southeast to southerly winds will occur tonight then south to
southwesterly winds will occur on Tuesday and could be gusty at
times especially at the KJLN site.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Wise