286
FXUS63 KSGF 181126
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
626 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to significant fire danger is expected today,
  especially along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.

- 20-50% chances for light rain Monday evening into early
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The Ozarks region is on the western periphery of a stacked
surface and upper level high which will keep mild and dry
weather in place for one more day. With upper level southwestern
flow across the plains and a digging upper level storm system
in the four corners region, the surface pressure gradient will
bring increased winds to the western portions of the area this
afternoon. Winds this afternoon may gust from 15 to 25 mph, as a
result of the gradient. This, combined with RH values falling
into the teens and lower 20s and dry, sunny skies will allow for
another day of elevated to significant fire weather concerns.
will need to monitor for Red Flag condition again today.

Afternoon highs will climb into the lower to middle 70s west of
Highway 65 and in the middle to upper 60s to the east. With
southwesterly winds continue though the day and overnight
tonight, night time lows will be in the upper 30s to middle
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The weekend will see the continuation of a warming trend. Winds
will drop off and RH values will be higher as southwesterly
winds finally bring some moisture into the region which should
mitigate some fire weather concerns. Highs will be in the 70s.

The upper level system mentioned earlier is forecast to move
into the plains but north of the area early next week. This is
expected to bring some rain to parts of the region Monday night
into Tuesday morning. The airmass this system will have to
overcome remains fairly dry though, which will limit chances for
rain to 20-50% (highest northwest) and amounts continue to be
light with each model run. NBM probability of >=0.5" of rain is
less than 20%.

Highs Monday through Friday will be in the mid 70s to around
80. A few isolated showers may be possible for the end of the
week but chances are less than 20 percent with the latest
models.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The region remains under the influence of surface high pressure
and is on the western edge of an upper level ridge. This will
allow for VFR flight conditions through the forecast period
along with surface winds from around 5 to 10 kts. Wind gusts
may be from 15-20mph for the KJLN terminal this afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch