171
FXUS63 KSGF 020545
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy smoke into Saturday, especially north of the
  Interstate 44 corridor.

- Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below climatological
  normals through the weekend.

- Slow warming trend next week with temperatures returning to
  slightly above normal values by next Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A west-northwest flow aloft will persist as an upper-level
ridge resides over the Desert Southwest. An area of rain showers
will continue to decay across far southwest Missouri and
northwest Arkansas this afternoon with IR satellite imagery
indicating warming cloud tops. Otherwise, dry weather is
expected across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks and
southeast Kansas through tonight.

Cloud cover will hang on for the remainder of the afternoon,
especially across southern Missouri. However, model RH fields
show good consensus that we will see an overall decrease in
clouds this evening with most areas experiencing partly cloudy
skies overnight.

The smoke from western U.S. and Canadian wildfires will remain
across the region into at least Saturday. Inspection of near
surface smoke density output from the HRRR indicates that some
reductions to visibilities will continue this afternoon and
tonight, especially north of the Interstate 44 corridor. Smoke
will be much thicker in the middle and upper atmosphere which
will promote a red sunset over areas that can escape thicker
clouds this evening.

As a drier low-level airmass continues to advect into the
region, overnight lows will fall into the middle 50s to lower
60s. The coolest readings will be in the valleys of the eastern
Ozarks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

This Weekend:

The HRRR continues to support smoke potential into at least
Saturday morning. Otherwise, surface high pressure will remain
in control of the weather with a pleasant weekend on tap. Dry
weather and partly cloudy skies will occur with short-term
models strongly clustered around highs ranging from the upper
70s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

Temperatures Saturday night may actually warrant a jacket in
some areas as a surface ridge axis settles into the region and
promotes efficient radiational cooling. NBM interquartile ranges
strongly support lows in the lower to middle 50s across the
eastern Ozarks. Lows will be close to 60 degrees along the
Interstate 49 corridor.

Monday through Wednesday:

Long wave charts and ensemble clusters show good consensus that
upper-level heights will gradually rise across the region. This
will promote a warming trend with temperatures returning to
near-seasonal values by Tuesday and Wednesday. This means highs
returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s with lows in the
middle to upper 60s over most areas. The good news is that heat
indices will remain somewhat in check as dew points remain in
the 60s. Nevertheless, areas along and west of the Interstate 49
corridor will see indices back into the upper 90s by Wednesday.

Precipitation chances look fairly minimal for this period with a
few exceptions. We will have to keep an eye on MCS activity
coming in off of the Plains Sunday night into Monday morning. If
convection can get far enough east, areas along and west of the
I-49 corridor would stand the best chance for some rainfall. We
currently have PoPs running at 15-20% for this potential
scenario.

A second scenario that may transpire is afternoon pop-up storms
across the eastern Ozarks during peak heating. This would
mainly be confined to locations along and east of the Highway 63
corridor. We have PoPs running in the 20-30% range for this
scenario, with the highest PoPs Tuesday afternoon.

Late Next Week:

Five wave charts indicate the southwestern U.S. ridge expanding
northeast and building into the area. Inspection of cluster
scenarios indicate strong agreement in this pattern. Thus, our
confidence is high (>80%) that the warming trend will continue.

NBM deterministic highs are generally running in the lower to
middle 90s which are generally at or below the median of the
statistical spread. This checks out well with conditional
climatology of progged 850 mb temperatures which also supports
lower to middle 90s for highs.

Dew points later next week may creep up into the upper 60s and
lower 70s--however, the synoptic scale setup will not be
supportive of oppressive values like we saw over many areas
during our recent heat wave. Thus, afternoon heat indices will
likely top out in the 94 to 104 range over the vast majority of
the area. Localized areas could approach Heat Advisory criteria
(105 degrees), especially if temperatures can push closer to the
NBM 75th percentile (upper 90s).

Precipitation chances from Wednesday through Friday are less
than 10%. The building upper-level ridge will result in
subsidence and mid-level temperatures too warm to support
afternoon pop-up storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A temperature inversion will help to trap any lingering smoke
between the surface and around the boundary layer (3kft and
below). If smoke/haze does not ventilate as expected,
visibility reductions as low as MVFR may occur overnight into
this morning. After sunrise, as temperatures warm, the inversion
will be overcome allowing any trapped smoke to ventilate out.
This is still a low confidence scenario, but possible mainly
for the KJLN aerodrome. Regardless, 6SM persistence would still
have VFR conditions prevailing.

Surface winds 5-8kts from the northeast to east are forecast
with calm to 5kts or less this evening for KJLN and through the
day for KBBG.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch