464
FXUS63 KSGF 050506
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lows in the mid to upper 30s tonight and Sunday night. May see
  some areas of frost development. Planning on frost advisory
  for much of the area tonight.

- Warming trend begins by mid-week with an upper level pattern
  change.

- Unsettled conditions with daily rain chances from Thursday
  into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a split flow over the CONUS with
the polar jet dipping into the central plains and mid
Mississippi valley with a closed low over MN. A weak
subtropical jet was pushing into the Baja region and along the
U.S. Mexico border. The surface cold front has shifted east of
the CWA, but some lingering stratus was occurring in the cooler
air behind the front with a clearing sky in the far western CWA.
The clouds and cooler air have kept temperatures in the low to
mid 50s early this afternoon and low 60s closer to the front in
the southeast.

Tonight: Upper trough axis will shift east of the area with the
surface high starting to push into the area from the northwest.
Winds should diminish after sunset the the sky will continue to
clear from west to east during the afternoon leaving a clear sky
tonight. HREF probabilities are giving around 40-100% chance of
temperatures below 37 degrees tonight for most of the area...all
but the far southwest and far southeast. While the potential for
frost looks borderline, will error on the side of caution and
will be going with a frost advisory for much of the CWA
overnight.

Sunday - Sunday night: The surface ridge will move overhead
during this time frame with dry conditions, sunny during the day
a clear during the night. Afternoon highs on Sunday are expected
in the low to mid 60s with lows Sunday night dipping back into
the mid to upper 30s. The coolest temperatures will shift a bit
east into the eastern Ozarks. May need another frost advisory on
Sunday night, but will tackle that tomorrow.

Monday - Monday night: Another cold front is expected to move
through the area on Monday, but should move through dry. Some
models are developing a band of precipitation mainly north of
the CWA in an area of mid level frontogenesis Monday night into
Tuesday but we should remain dry for most of our CWA. Highs
Monday should range from the mid 60s in the north to the low 70s
in the south, with lows Monday night from the mid 30s north to
the low 40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Warming trend and unsettled conditions in the longer term: Flow
becomes more westerly aloft by the middle of the week with the
split flow continuing. Low level warm advection will ramp up by
Wednesday and we should see temperatures warm back into the low
to mid 70s across the CWA.

An upper low will begin to push into the California coast late
in the week with a broad area of southwest flow aloft developing
from south of the low into the mid/upper MS valley. A front
boundary will likely get stalled out over the region with low
level Gulf moisture advection into the area. Precipitation
chances will begin on Thursday and continue into the upcoming
weekend and may continue into the early part of the following
week as the low ejects out of the southwest CONUS into the
central U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Clear skies, no
precipitation. North-northwest winds under 10 kts tonight pick
up a few kts around sunrise. Becoming light and variable by 00Z
through the end of the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>097-105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Nelson