173
FXUS63 KSGF 262341
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
541 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain potential (20-55% chance) Wednesday afternoon and
  evening with the highest chances across central Missouri.
  Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 0.10".

- Much colder temperatures from Thanksgiving through the
  weekend.

- A quick moving clipper type system will quickly push through
  on Saturday with a chance of light snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show quick moving zonal flow over most
of the CONUS. There is an upper low over lake Superior and
another low pressure trough dropping southeast across the
Pacific northwest. Lower in the atmosphere, the surface high
pressure system which moved overhead late last night into this
morning has shifted east into the bootheel region. Dry air was
over the forecast area with humidity levels at noon in the 30s
and 40s. Temperatures were in the low to mid 40s and surface
winds were southerly, generally at 10 mph or less.

For tonight: upper level jet energy will continue to shift east
ahead of the main trough and into the plains with mid and upper
level cloud cover increasing over the area. Lows will be warmer
than last night and mostly above freezing in the mid to upper
30s. Some areas in the eastern Ozarks may dip into the low 30s.

Wednesday - Wednesday night: The morning should mostly remain
dry, but we`ll start to see low level moisture increase from the
south during the afternoon. Surface low will track south of the
area in northern Arkansas and an 850mb front will move through
the area during the evening. Best rain chances will actually be
north of the area along the I-70 corridor during the afternoon
and early evening in a region of greater 700-600mb frontogenetic
forcing. Further south over our area, some afternoon rain will
be possible with better chances in the early evening over our
central Missouri counties. Pops were in the 15-55% range with
QPF amounts generally a tenth of an inch or less. Temperatures
should be warm enough for all rain. Some locations in south
central Missouri may get some drizzle as we lose the cloud ice
but maintain low level moisture and some lift late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. May have to watch for a brief
period of freezing drizzle as the colder air arrives behind the
main area of precipitation and begins to dip temperatures close
to that freezing mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Cold temperatures Thursday through the Weekend: Behind the upper
level wave that will move through Wednesday night into Thursday,
much colder air will move into the area from the
north/northwest. Highs on Thanksgiving will range from the upper
30s in the north to the mid and upper 40s in the far southeast
with lows that night in the 20 to 25 degree range. Even colder
temperatures are expected Friday into the weekend with highs
from the mid 30s to low 40s and lows dipping into the teens.

Light snow chances on Saturday: Northwest flow will continue
over the weekend and a quick moving shortwave will drop
southeast into the area on Saturday. This shortwave may produce
some light snow with the better chances in our northern CWA. No
major accumulations are expected, but a dusting may be possible
in our northern counties. There is still a lot of uncertainty
with where this main band of light snow sets up, so this may
evolve with time as we get closer to Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Flight conditions across the region overnight and into
Wednesday afternoon will be VFR with only a few, though slowly
increasing cloud cover from west to east. By Wednesday
afternoon, winds will shift out of the north with VFR ceilings
moving over the area initially but MVFR ceilings settling across
the area by the middle afternoon.

Winds will shift from southerly to northerly Wednesday
afternoon from 5-10mph, with a few gusts near 20mph at the KJLN
terminal later in the day Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch