369
FXUS63 KSGF 072304
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
604 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for a few isolated strong to severe
  thunderstorms through the late afternoon and early evening.
  Primary hazard would be damaging winds. Highest chances are
  east of Highway 65.

- Increasing confidence in the potential for areas of dense fog
  overnight into Sunday morning.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
  evening. Primary hazards would be large hail and damaging
  winds. Highest chances north of Interstate 44.

- Drier weather through early to mid next week with higher rain
  chances returning late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Through this Afternoon-Evening: Radar depicts an area of
showers and thunderstorms in west central MO this afternoon,
progged to build east-southeast through the late afternoon into
the early evening. This complex is associated with additional
shortwave energy sliding through the Middle Mississippi Valley
today. Visible satellite imagery captures some breaks in the
clouds across the area, supporting daytime heating in the wake
of the morning thunderstorm complex. This daytime heating will
support some destabilization across the Ozarks, with MLCAPE
forecast to be upwards of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. This instability
overlaps sufficient deep layer shear around 40-45 knots.
However, there remains some uncertainty on just how well the
low-levels truly recover in the wake of this morning`s activity.
While mid-level lapse rates remain poor, there may be enough
thermodynamics to support isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm segments. SPC has highlighted this potential with a
Marginal Risk (1 out of 5), generally along and east of Highway
65. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60
mph, with a lower threat for hail up to the size of dimes. Most
of the thunderstorms are expected to remain sub- severe with
coverage fairly limited. Areas across southeast KS into
southwest MO may remain completely dry through this evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms dissipate into south central
MO this evening with the loss of daytime heating towards
sunset.

Tonight: By tonight, skies clear and give way to overnight lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This will set the stage for
potential fog to overspread the area. Latest HREF guidance
depicts 40-60% probabilities for visibilities less than a half
mile, generally along and north of Interstate 44. Fog headlines
may be warranted overnight into early Sunday morning if
confidence continues to increase in widespread coverage.

Sunday: The next shortwave trough and an associated cold front
are progged to slide through the region on Sunday. This frontal
passage will be the focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms, including the potential for severe. The
environment ahead of the front will be characterized by ample
instability (MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg) and modest deep layer shear
(30-40 knots). Meanwhile, highs reach into the lower to middle
80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Timing remains a key
component to the severe potential, as the front looks to collide
with the most favorable daytime heating. The latest CAMs
highlight scattered showers and thunderstorms developing just
north of the area in the early afternoon, before sliding south
into the late afternoon. There still remains some uncertainty
with the extent of thunderstorm coverage. The environment would
favor supercells initially, before congealing into multicell
clusters, supporting large hail up to the size of golf balls and
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. The greatest risk extents
north of Interstate 44 from southeast KS into central MO.
Lastly, the risk for a tornado remains very low, given the lack
of strong low-level dynamics. Areas further south begin to see
a decrease in thunderstorm chances into the early evening. SPC
highlights much of the area in a Slight Risk (2 out of 5).
Additionally, heavy downpours and localized flash flooding
remain plausible, though confidence is low. Additional details
may be gleaned from the mesoanalysis on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Monday-Wednesday: As the front clears the area overnight Sunday
into Monday, a pattern change takes shape over the region.
Expect a drier stretch of weather through early week with
northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure settling over the
central CONUS. Temperatures look to remain near normal for
early June, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Late Next Week: Confidence is increasing in unsettled weather
returning to the Ozarks region by next Thursday and Friday.
Ensembles remain consistent with southwest flow into the central
CONUS, supporting a return of moisture and embedded shortwaves.
Rain chances are upwards of 50-80% through late week, with
periods of dry time between waves of energy.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the 00z TAFS, not expecting convection to affect the TAF
locations tonight. Initially, some scattered cumulus around
3500-4500 feet are expected with SKC and light and variable
winds by 01-02z. Some light fog will be possible late tonight
into Sunday morning and have gone with some MVFR conditions to
account for that. The convection with the cold front on Sunday
should be after this set of TAFS ends.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Lindenberg