863
FXUS63 KSGF 251020
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
520 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continue through the weekend into early next
  week. Daily highs in the lower to middle 90s, with maximum
  afternoon heat index values around 100 to 105+. Heat Advisory
  extended through next Tuesday evening.

- A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible along and
  northwest of a Fort Scott, Kansas to Versailles line through
  sunrise this morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
  with this activity. Additional daily afternoon chances
  (10-30%) exist today through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

The upper level ridge remains over the area but has slid
slightly to the east as an upper level shortwave trough is
moving across the Plains this morning. Ahead of the shortwave
showers and storms have develop across western Oklahoma into
northern Missouri early this morning. This activity will
continue to move northeast and could clip the far northwestern
portions of the area generally along and northwest of Fort
Scott, Kansas to Versailles, Missouri early this morning through
6AM. A cap remains in place across the rest of the area and the
better lift is also west and north of the area with the lift
will moving off to the north this morning.

The warm air mass will remain in place across the area again
today as highs warm into the middle 90s across much of the area
again today. The far northwestern portions of the area may be
slightly cooler (lower 90s) where the ridge has pushed slightly
more east. Heat index values will again warm to around 100 to
105 this afternoon and the Heat Advisory remains in effect for
the entire area.

A few pulse type storms will be possible (10-30% chances) this
afternoon into early this evening as instability increases and
the cap weakens with the heating of the day. The better lift
will remain north of the area. An outflow boundary that
developed from the storms north of the area has move south into
the area and has stalled. It`s possible an isolated storm may be
able to develop long this boundary this afternoon. If a storm
can develop and put out it`s own outflow, based on the low level
flow additional isolated storms will be possible along the
outflow moving to the north/northeast. Precipitable water
values will remain high across the area and if any storms can
develop they will be slow moving so some locally heavy rainfall
will occur with any storms. The overall severe risk is low but a
few stronger storms with wind gusts up to 50 mph could be
possible across portions of central Missouri this
afternoon/early evening if storm are able to develop.

Any storms should dissipate by the mid evening hours with dry
conditions expected tonight as lows only drop into the middle
70s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

The upper level ridge builds back slightly to the west across
the area this weekend as highs again warm into the middle 90s
with afternoon/early evening heat index values in the 100 to
107 range both Saturday and Sunday. Isolated afternoon/early
evening pop up storms will be possible (10-30%) both days this
weekend but overall coverage may remain limited and not all
locations will be affected.

The ridge remains over the region early next week with highs in
the middle 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 107 range
continuing through Tuesday for portions of the area, especially
southern Missouri on Wednesday. Lows will only cool into the
middle 70s each night. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through
7 PM Tuesday.

The middle of next week the ensemble model members continue to
trend towards favoring a solution of flattening the ridge,
which would support a slight cool down across the region late
next week. Models show a front moving into the area Wednesday
into Thursday, there are still difference in the timing of the
front. There will be the potential for some showers and storms
with the front Wednesday into Thursday. There remains difference
between the ensemble model members for next week, as the
overall trend is for a slight cool down later next week, there
is still some guidance supporting the ridge building right back
to the east and a continuation of the heat later next week. The
temperature spread between the models remains at 10 degree
interquartile range into the later part of the forecast period,
varying from lower 80s to lower 90s, the mean is in the middle
to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

There is a low chances (<15%) for afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms to develop over the area today. The better
potential will be north of the area and if storms can develop
this far south coverage would be limited and not all areas would
be affected.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected across the area today
through Saturday morning with south to southeast winds
generally 10kt of less but some gusts up to around 15kt could
be possible at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise