259
FXUS63 KSGF 150754
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
254 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average temperatures will occur across the area for the
  remainder of the work week.

- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday into Saturday night.
  There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
  across the area.

- More seasonable temperatures to begin next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

An upper level ridge of high pressure is over the region
currently, and will remain over the area the rest of the week.
As a result above normal temperatures will continue to occur
across today and Thursday as highs warm into the lower to
middle 80s. Surface high pressure is currently over the region
and will result in winds remaining on the lighter side today,
generally out of east to southeast. Lows will cool into the
middle 50s to the lower 60s each night through Friday morning as
the warmer air mass remains in place. Temperatures will be
around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. The
surface high will start to move off to the the east on Thursday
as an upper level and surface low move towards the Plains.
South to southeasterly winds will pick up slightly on Thursday
with gusts around 15 to 20 mph occurring at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

An upper level low is currently located across the southwestern
U.S. early this morning with an upper level ridge over the
central U.S. The upper level low will start to move east today
and will move into the Plains Thursday night into Friday. As the
low moves east the ridge will also begin to move off to the
east on Friday. The warmer air mass will remain in place with
highs once again warming into the lower to middle 80s on Friday.
South to southwesterly wind gusts around 15 to 25 mph will
occur at times on Friday ahead of the system to the west.

The upper level trough will move east across the Plains on
Friday and through the region on Saturday and Saturday night.
Moisture will start to advect north into the region later Friday
into Saturday. As the trough moves east a cold front will move
south across the plains Friday evening and night. Showers and
storms should develop along and ahead of the front and could
start moving east into extreme southeastern Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri Friday night into early Saturday night.
The front will then move through the region on Saturday. There
are still some differences between the models on the exact
timing of the front and how fast the moisture return occurs on
Friday night. There could be a low risk for a few strong to
severe storms Friday night across the western portions of the
area with hail and wind the main risk if enough instability can
develop. There is the possible that just rain and a few embedded
storms occur with this activity. This activity will move east
across the area, and then a front will move through the area on
Saturday. There could be additional chances for strong to
severe storms on Saturday, especially if a slower cold frontal
passage occurs later in the day and instability can recover
after the morning convection. If the front moves through faster
Saturday morning, the strong to severe risk will be lower on
Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible but
widespread heavy rainfall is not expected.

Behind the front cooler conditions will occur on Sunday, as
highs may not warm out of the 60s for many locations. Models
indicate a ridge moving back over the region early next weekend
with highs in the 70s on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites tonight through the
day on Wednesday as high pressure will be over the region. Winds
will be light and variable overnight and will be around 6 to 8kt
out of the southeast during the late morning and afternoon
hours on Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise