391
FXUS63 KSGF 241153
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
553 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread light to moderate rain continues through today and
  into tonight. Some breaks in precipitation are expected.

- Mostly dry with below-average temperatures Tuesday through
  Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s, and lows in the 20s to
  low 30s.

- Additional rain chances (60-70%) next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

As of 5AM, observations across the Missouri Ozarks showed
substantial improvements in visibilities as precipitation and
mid-level clouds extended east and overspread the Eastern
Ozarks. With that in mind, we went ahead and cancelled the
remainder of the Dense Fog Advisory. Some localized areas may
still see patchy lower visibilities this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

An upper level low continues to progress eastward through the
Plains, with a surface low over southeast Colorado as of 2 AM.
Satellite imagery clearly depicts the comma-head feature surrounding
this low pressure system, with the eastern extent over much of
Missouri.

Dense Fog Advisory This Morning:
Observations showcase a large portion of northern, eastern, and
southeastern Missouri experiencing visibilities below a mile,
with many in the 0.25-0.50 mile range as a stratus deck remains
over the region in places that aren`t yet seeing precipitation.
There remains a question of how far west this will extend as we
progress through the morning hours. For areas along and east of
Highway 63, REFS and HREF continue to highlight 60+%
probabilities of visibilities below 0.25 miles, leading to
higher confidence. Once you get west of Highway 63 towards
Springfield, those higher probabilities start to drop off and
become more patchy. Decided to trim the western tier of counties
out of the Dense Fog Advisory since they should remain more
patchy in nature before rain settles in. Counties along and east
of a Howell to Miller line remain in the Advisory until 9AM.

Precipitation continuing through today:
As the upper level trough has been making its way towards the
Ozarks, a 30-35kt low level jet developed over Kansas, with PVA
and increasing moisture (0.75-1.0 PWATS) beginning to push into
the area. As a result, light rain began making its way into
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri after midnight, with the
"heaviest" rainfall showcasing an hourly rate of 0.15-0.20"/hr.
As the morning progresses, CAMs showcase a weakening trend in
the coverage, leading to some breaks in the rainfall. However,
as the surface low continues to make its way towards the area
late afternoon/evening, additional showers are expected to
develop and push through the area before exiting the CWA from
west to east tonight. Instability trends have gone down with the
more current guidance, but still can`t rule out a rumble of
thunder or two this afternoon/evening (20-30%). Forecast rain
totals remain on track with the previous forecast, with amounts
generally between 0.20 and 0.50. HREF LPMM continues to
highlight the potential for localized areas reaching 1.0-1.5
inches towards western/Central Missouri where training showers
are more possible, however most locations won`t see these higher
amounts.

Cooler and More Seasonable Temperatures Today:
With the increased cloud cover and precipitation limiting
warming potential, decided to lower temperatures several degrees
away from the deterministic NBM, with afternoon highs topping
out in the low to mid 50s. This is between 6-12 degrees cooler
than yesterday`s highs (with the exception of Vichy-Rolla that
stayed in the upper 40s), and is much closer to seasonable
temperatures.

Tuesday:
Cloud cover will slowly begin to clear from west to east
throughout much of Tuesday, with highs in the low 60s for much of
the area. Models depict an upper level shortwave digging into the
Midwest Tuesday afternoon/evening, with an associated cold front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture and lift remain slim to
none, so confidence in any precipitation occurring with this frontal
passage is low - therefore, kept pops in the 10-20% range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The cold front that`s progged to sweep through the area on Tuesday
will usher in much colder, below-normal temperatures, with highs
remaining in the 40s to low 50s, and overnight lows in the 20s to
low 30s Wednesday through Friday. With the northwesterly flow aloft
and the dry airmass in place, not expecting any precipitation
through at least Friday afternoon.

As we head into next weekend, ensembles are beginning to hint at an
upper level trough pushing through the western CONUS, leading to
additional precipitation chances returning to the area. With this
being so far out still, there`s a lot of discrepancies leading to
low confidence in timing, intensity, amounts, and locations. NBM
temperature interquartile spread continues to show an almost 20
degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles (25th: 37
degrees; 75th: 56 degrees; NBM deterministic: 51 degrees), further
showcasing the uncertainty surrounding this system. We`ll need to
continue assessing model trends as we get closer to this time frame
to really narrow down potential scenarios.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Flight categories will deteriorate the further we progress into the
TAF period. Some light rain has been affecting the TAF sites during
the early morning, with off and on showers expected to continue
through the remainder of the day before tapering off tonight. There
exists a low chance (20-30%) of isolated thunder occurring later
this afternoon and evening, however due to the low confidence,
decided to keep it out of the TAFs for now. By this afternoon, all
sites should be down to IFR status, with LIFR likely towards the end
of the period.

Otherwise, southeasterly winds between 8-12kts will become light
again tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Melto
SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto