721
FXUS63 KSGF 212318
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
518 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will occur across
  the area through the end of the week.

- Warming trend through the weekend, with highs near to above
  normal.

- Rain chances increase into the middle part of next week.
  Uncertainty remains on the timing of best rain chances.

- Increasing confidence on below normal temperatures returning
  into mid next week and early December.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Through Tonight: Dry northwest flow continues across the region
with an upper-level low stationed across the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, a ridge holds strong across the Rockies. This pattern
has kept the area cool and dry today, with highs in the 40s.
This is generally around 10 degrees below normal. Meanwhile,
dewpoints in 20s is keeping relative humidity values as low as
35 to 45 percent. Gusty northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph make
it feel a bit chillier despite clear skies. Gusty winds are
expected to subside through the early evening. For tonight,
overnight lows fall into the middle to upper 20s across the
area. Some cloud cover building into the northeastern portions
of the area may keep lows a few degrees warmer.

Friday: By Friday, surface high pressure slowly shifts east
towards the area with subtle mid-level height rises returning
across the south and west. This will set the stage for varying
highs on Friday from middle 40s (north and east) to lower 50s
(south and west). Lighter winds will accompany the gradual
rebound of temperatures on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Saturday-Sunday: As we progress into the weekend, the ridge will
gradually shift into the region, supporting a warming trend.
Highs by Saturday reach into the middle to upper 50s, with some
locations in the lower 60s across far southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri. By Sunday, a shift in the upper-level
pattern begins to take shape as flow becomes more zonal in
nature. Weak shortwave energy and an associated surface low
push into the Central Plains on Sunday, with gusty southerly
winds ahead of this system. Strong warm air advection into the
area supports highs reaching into the 60s to near 70 on Sunday,
which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal. However, the warm
temperatures will be short-lived as an associated cold front
sweeps through the area on Sunday night into Monday. Moisture
remains limited with this passage, with most ensemble members
depicting a dry frontal passage. Rain chances remain less than
20 percent across the eastern portions of the area through
Monday.

Monday-Thursday: Behind the dry frontal passage, cooler air is
expected to filter into the area. There remains some
uncertainty on the timing and extent of the cooler air through
at least Monday with NBM temperature spreads around 5 to 10+
degrees between the 25th-75th percentiles. Nonetheless, the
surface high pressure and cooler temperatures settle into the
area by Tuesday and Wednesday with varying highs from middle 40s
(north) to lower 50s (south). This remains anywhere from 5 to
10 degrees below normal as we head into late November.
Meanwhile, the pattern becomes more variable into mid to late
next week (including Thanksgiving) with regards to a trough
translating out of the western CONUS. The GEFS continues to
highlight a more progressive trough compared to the other
ensemble suites. With that in mind, that remains uncertainty on
the extent and timing of potential rain chances ahead of and
through the holiday next Thursday. NBM continues to highlight
30-50% chances next Wednesday, before falling off to 20-40% into
Thursday. The NBM indicates precipitation type to likely remain
all rain given the current forecast temperatures and
environment. Little to no ensemble members suggest any wintry
precipitation at this time. Expect the forecast to be refined as
we progress the upcoming weekend into early next week.

Lastly, it is worth mentioning that confidence is increasing in
below normal temperatures in the later part of November (late
next week) into early December. The CPC 8 to 14 day highlights
this signal. Further investigation into the GEFS, ECMWF, and
GEPS ensembles depict temperature anomalies at least 5 to 10
degrees below normal. For reference, average highs during the
identified time period are between 48 to 53, with average lows
of 29 to 33. Continue to monitor the forecast as we hone in on
the details of a potential cold pattern ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Clear skies were in place across the region this evening and
are expected to continue through Friday evening, though a few
clouds may move over the region by mid morning. Surface winds
will remain northwesterly as well.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Hatch