742
FXUS63 KSGF 180803
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
203 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to marginally severe thunderstorms through
  the overnight hours tonight will be capable of sub-severe
  (less than quarter size) hail and winds up to 40 mph.

- Well above normal to record high temperatures will be possible
  on Tuesday.

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will then occur at times
  from late Wednesday into Friday as showers and thunderstorms
  move across the area.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1259 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A warm front has lifted from northeast Oklahoma to the northeast through
southern Missouri this evening, with an additional pseudo-
dryline oriented north-south bisecting the warm sector generally
parallel to Hwy 65 at time of writing. A 45-50 kt nocturnal
low-level jet streak extending from the SW Missouri/NE Oklahoma
state line up through St. Louis is quickly advecting moisture
into the area and headfirst into the dryline feature, bringing
60-65F sfc dew points to areas that otherwise had 30-40F dew
points 3 hours ago.

Elevated storms have developed along a theta-e boundary just
north of and parallel to I-44 over the last couple of hours,
along the leading edge of a corridor of ~2000 J/kg of MUCAPE
(per SPC mesoanalysis data) nosing in from NE Oklahoma and NW
Arkansas, with widespread 50-60kt 0-6km bulk shear. However,
sounding analysis is guiding current expectations to be that
previously advertised hail threat is diminishing significantly.
Model CAPE profiles are more of the tall-and-skinny type as
opposed to the fat type, with a maximum of 400-600 J/kg of CAPE
within the hail growth zone (HGZ) if you cherrypick your
sounding right.

00Z SGF sounding had a freezing level of 10922 ft, and the
upstream airmass sampled by the 00Z OUN sounding had a freezing
level of 11836 ft. Updrafts are struggling to strengthen enough
to produce hail big enough that it doesn`t melt before reaching
the ground, and localized rain rates up to 1-1.5" per hour
further reflect an efficient warm rain process dominating.
Between improper instability distribution and a deep warm cloud
layer, hail threat seems to have decreased significantly.
However, if an updraft can get rooted enough to maximize time
in the HGZ, hail may be seen at ground level, though we
anticipate nothing widespread nor larger than nickel size.

Storms do seem to be backbuilding/training a bit, but rapid
storm motion (700-300mb winds 50-60 kts) and drought conditions
are anticipated to mitigate flooding threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Current conditions and analysis: A couple of areas of upper
level low pressure were analyzed with the closest one over the
central high plains. The second was entering northern and
central California. A low level jet was located over the area
and we`re seeing some gusty winds across the area. The strongest
winds were at SGF where terrain was bumping the surface winds up
much higher than surrounding sites. Our highest wind gusts at
the airport was 45 mph so far. Elsewhere, gusts were in the 20
to 30 mph range. Humidity levels were in the 20s and 30s in the
eastern Ozarks and the 30s and 40s in the west. This combined
with the gusty winds was producing some elevated and locally
significant fire weather conditions. Some strong to severe
storms have developed late this morning into the early
afternoon so far in an area of strong warm air advection with
some MU CAPES of 500-1000 j/kg. We are mainly looking at a large
hail potential with these storms this afternoon. By this
evening, these storms should move off to the northeast of the
forecast area.

Tonight:
The upper low over the high plains will shift east into the
central plains tonight and Iowa/Northern Missouri by 12z. Upper
level jet energy along with a continued low level jet,
increasing moisture and instability will bring additional
chances of scattered thunderstorms to the area late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Again, hail would be the main severe
weather risk. Low level moisture will be on the increase and
would could see some low stratus/drizzle develop overnight into
Tuesday morning as well.

Tuesday:
A warm front will push through tonight and we`ll continue to
advect warmer air into the area during the day ahead of the
trailing cold front. The morning convection should exit to the
east fairly early. We are showing around 15 deg C at 850mb
during the day Tuesday. Local climate study is suggesting a
range of mid to upper 70s with a mostly cloudy or overcast
condition and upper 70s to mid 80s for partly cloudy or sunny
conditions. We may start the day out with some stratus and will
need to erode that. Going in between puts us in the goalposts
for the NBM 25th-75th percentile which looks reasonable. This
will put some highs in jeopardy of record breaking highs. (see
climate section for details).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Heavy rain and thunderstorm potential late Wednesday into
Friday: Behind this first system, we get into a southwest flow
aloft ahead of the 2nd low which will be starting to push east
out of California into Nevada and Arizona. By late Wednesday,
we`ll start to get a low level jet develop over the are along
with upper level jet energy east of the main low. Pacific
moisture will increase aloft with the southwest flow and Gulf
moisture will increase in the lower levels with a strong south
to southwest flow. Could start to see showers develop over the
area Wednesday evening. Stronger divergence aloft occurs over
the area as the upper low approaches from the west on Thursday
with weak instability over the area as well. Rain should become
more widespread on Thursday and could be heavy at times with
ensemble mean PW values of 1.3" to 1.5" which is well above the
90th percentile for this time of year. The main upper wave looks
like it pushes through late Friday with drier air moving in
behind that. Widespread rainfall amounts of an inch and a half
to 2.5 inches will be possible with localized higher amounts.
Here are some probabilistic amounts through Sat 12z:

              >0.5"  >1.0"   >1.5"    >2.0"
Springfield    90%    60%     27%      12%
Joplin         88%    56%     25%      13%
West Plains    94%    75%     48%      26%
Nevada         81%    48%     21%       8%
Branson        93%    73%     46%      23%
Rolla          92%    77%     50%      30%

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Winds are southeasterly (10-15 kts) and will gradually become
southwesterly through the TAF period, with intermittent gusts
up to 25 kts through the morning and early afternoon hours.
Overnight low-level wind shear 40-50 kts will lessen just after
sunrise.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to move through the
area in bursts during the overnight hours, bringing lightning
and brief bursts of heavy rainfall. Used prob30 to highlight
periods of best rain chances at the TAF sites, since PoPs are
30-50% and confidence in direct impact is not high enough for
prevailing group at this time. Will amend if needed based on
short-term trends through the overnight hours.

Otherwise, rain clears out to the east by late morning, with
cloud cover decreasing as the day continues.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

For context, average high temps for middle
November are in the 55-59 degree range.



Tuesday November 18:

Record High Temperatures:             Forecast:

KSGF: 78/1930                             76
KJLN: 76/1999                             74
KVIH: 74/1981                             75
KUNO: 74/2017                             78

November 19:
KJLN: 75/1950                             70

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Camden
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Wise