868
FXUS63 KSGF 081939
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
139 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain (80-95% chance) is expected with a storm
  system that will impact the region tonight and Saturday.
  Rainfall amounts from 0.25" to 0.75". Localized amounts around
  1.00" to 2.00" along and west of the I-49 corridor.

- Additional potential (20-35%) for showers and thunderstorms
  next Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Whether looking on the regional radar or satellite, its pretty
obvious where the next storm system, that will impact the
Ozarks region, was early this afternoon. With the nearly
stacked low making its slow progression to the northeast into
the central plains, rain and isolated storms will begin to
spread into the region this evening and continue into Saturday.

In association with the system moving towards the region, cloud
cover has overspread the area as well. This has kept todays
highs from making it too far into the 60s with most locations
warming only into the lower 60s. This cloud cover will impact
tonights lows as well with middle 40s in the east and lower 50s
in the west expected.

The cutoff upper low and associated surface feature will make
its way across the central plains towards the Great Lakes
through the day Saturday. This will bring widespread rainfall to
the region with 0.25 to 0.75 inch amounts expected for most
areas. The initial bands may be more robust along and west of
I-49 and those areas will see greater residence time with the
rainfall. This may allow for these locations, west of I-49 to
see localized amounts from 1 to 2 inches. This setup will keep
those areas of central Missouri that saw major to near historic
flooding over the past week wet but should not exacerbate or
increase any flood threats.

By Saturday night, the storm system will have made its way into
northwestern Iowa and move of the attendant rain associated
with the system will have pushed east of the Ozarks region.
There may be some lingering light precipitation in the eastern
portions of the Ozarks Sunday morning, otherwise, skies will
clear from west to east through the day with highs in the 60s
thanks to the sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The beginning of next week looks pleasant with no weather in
the forecast. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the middle 60s
under sunny skies. A dry cold front will slide through the
state Monday night allowing for Tuesday morning lows in the
lower to middle 40`s.

Synoptic models have continued in the latest trends of weakening
the precipitation signal for the middle of next week with
diminishing chances (20-35%) and amounts. This will continued to
be watched however.

Finally, the weather for the end of next week should be
seasonable as sunny skies occur and and upper level ridge
builds across the center of the country.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A storm system in the plains will make its way to the east and
into the Ozarks region by this evening. This will bring lowering
ceilings, showers and gusty surface winds. Initially VFR
conditions will deteriorate into this evening to MVFR tonight
and eventually IFR by Saturday morning as ceilings progressively
lower over the next 24 hours and rain spreads across the region.

As the system approaches, surface winds will also become gusty
mainly from the south to southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch