549
FXUS63 KSGF 081855
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1255 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances remain less than 10% areawide through
  Saturday.

- Near to above average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.

- Cold air settles in Friday night through Saturday night.
  Overnight wind chills in the teens to single digits are
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The stratus deck that was blanketing southern Missouri this
morning will continue to break up throughout the afternoon,
though a few scattered clouds may linger. Despite the clearing,
warm air advection looks to arrive too late to realize much
actual heating today, and high temperatures will remain below
average.

However, a passing mid-level shortwave impulse and increasing
southwesterly winds will aid in warmer air advecting into the
region by Tuesday. Afternoon highs look to top out in the mid to
upper 50s. While point forecast soundings suggest relatively low
mixing heights, the tightening surface pressure gradient will
support occasional wind gusts between 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM CST
Mon Dec 8 2025

Dry:
The upper-level pattern will not be supportive of notable
precipitation chances through the long term period; that is,
global ensembles depict a longwave trough persisting across the
eastern CONUS, keeping southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas
in a dry northwest flow pattern through at least Sunday.
Precipitation chances remain less than 10% through the long term
forecast.

Cold Weekend:
A passing shortwave through the northern Plains and Midwest will
drag a surface cold front through the region Thursday night into
early Friday that will usher in a much colder airmass this
weekend. The good news is that southwest Missouri and southeast
Kansas will be spared from the coldest air, which will be across
the Midwest and northeastern U.S. A glance at ensemble clusters
reveals two primary solutions. The "warmer" solution-- mainly
dominated by ECMWF members--keeps the aforementioned trough
slightly flatter, or farther northeast. To that end, the ECMWF`s
Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails therefore keep any
extreme cold signal northeast of our area. The colder solution
is comprised mainly of GEFS and GEPS members which allow the
trough to intrude farther southwest. Indeed, this disagreement
in the models is manifested in the NBM`s large (10+ degrees)
interquartile spread in temperatures beyond Friday.

So what does this mean for actual temperatures? In the "warm"
solution, low temperatures Friday night would generally be in
the 20s with Saturday highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. In the
cold solution, lows Friday night would generally be in the
teens to single digits with Saturday highs in the mid 20s to mid
30s. Wind chills in the single digits are possible. Regardless,
there is high confidence that temperatures will fall well below
normal late Friday through Saturday--the question is simply how
far below normal. For what it`s worth, the trend in the
guidance has been toward the warmer solution. Temperatures look
to increase for Sunday as the cold airmass shifts northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Mid-level stratus that has been producing MVFR to locally IFR
ceilings this morning will continue to break up at the
beginning of the TAF period, though scattered mid-level clouds
may persist through the afternoon.

Southwest winds will increase on Tuesday, sustained between 10
to 15 kt and gusts near 25 kt.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio