627
FXUS63 KSGF 232345
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the weekend, with highs near to above
  normal. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected Sunday.

- Rain chances increase next Wednesday and Thursday.

- Temperatures turn much colder Thursday night through the
  remainder of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 126 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a fairly zonal pattern across the
CONUS with upper level jet energy pushing from the west coast
into the Rockies. Ahead of this, surface low pressure was
developing over the front range of the Rockies and the pressure
gradient was beginning to tighten up over the plains. Over our
forecast area, some high clouds were over the area with
mild temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s.

Tonight: Southerly winds should remain fairly steady tonight
ahead of the next area of low pressure and frontal system. A low
level jet will develop over the area and should bring some low
level moisture into the area from the Gulf. Temperatures will
range from the mid 30s in the east to the mid and upper 40s in
the west.

Sunday: The frontal boundary will approach from the west during
the day with gusty winds developing ahead of the front. Some
wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible starting in the
morning and continue through the afternoon hours. Highs look to
reach the mid to upper 60s with increasing cloud cover during
the afternoon as the front approaches from the west.

Sunday night: The front will push through the area and CAMS are
showing the potential for some light echoes to develop mainly
across the eastern half of the CWA. Not a big signal for much if
any measurable rain and we have pops generally 20% or less.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some drizzle develop Sunday night
into Monday with the front. Lows will be coolest in the west
behind the front in the low to mid 40s, with mid 40s to low 50s
in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Light rain/drizzle chances should end on Monday morning and
colder air will move into the area behind the front. Highs
Monday will range from the upper 40s in the west to the low 60s
closer to the front in the southeast. Lows Monday night should
dip back below freezing in the mid to upper 20s.

Rain chances Wednesday into Thanksgiving: Another upper level
system will drop southeast into the plains on Wednesday which
will also help to develop a surface low over the southern
plains. Rain chances should start by late in the day Wednesday
with the best chances Wednesday night into Thursday morning
before shifting east of the area by Thursday night. At this
time, it looks like temperatures will be warm enough for all
rain, but wouldn`t be surprised if some snow mixes in with the
rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning over our northern CWA
where we have temperatures dipping into the mid 30s. Rainfall
amounts with this system are ranging from a few hundredths in
the west to three tenths of an inch in the east.

Much colder behind the Thanksgiving Day system: A Canadian air
mass will then begin to push into the area behind the front on
Thursday night. Lows will dip back into the low to upper 20s
with highs on Friday only in the 40s.

The colder air looks like it will continue past the 7 day
outlook into early December. CPC outlooks continue with a good
chance of below average temperatures into early December.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Increasing wind fields will lead to LLWS tonight into Sunday
morning, then strong S-SSW winds on Sunday. Otherwise, look for
VFR conditions through this TAF period. Following this TAF
period, lowered ceilings and possible drizzle will be possible
along and behind a cold front Sunday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Titus