149
FXUS63 KSGF 312317
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
617 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will continue mainly over southeast Kansas
  into far western MO this afternoon into tonight with generally
  light rain.

- Showers with some potential embedded thunderstorms Monday into
  Tuesday.

- Strong cold front moves through Wednesday night bringing
  cooler than normal temperatures through the remainder of the
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A blocking pattern aloft is keeping things slow moving with a
large scale trough continuing over the eastern U.S., shortwave
energy embedded underneath some ridging in the upper midwest and
a more amplified ridge over the rockies. The upper energy was
interacting with some moisture, mainly over the eastern plains
including extreme southeast Kansas and far western Missouri
early this afternoon. The additional cloud cover and some
scattered light rain has kept temperatures lower than yesterday
at this time with readings from the mid 70s to low 80s.

Through Monday, a shortwave with track southeast into the area
from the northern plains and will continue to bring rain chances
to the area with the highest pops(40-55%) in the southwest half
of the CWA on Monday. There is some weak instability so we can`t
rule out some isolated embedded thunderstorms, but the majority
of the rain will be scattered showers. Rainfall totals of
generally a half inch or less are expected. Cloud cover will
help to keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s for most
locations tonight with highs on Monday similar to today in the
mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Precipitation Chances: The best chances for rainfall over the
entire area will be on Monday night as the upper level shortwave
swings through. Low pops(30% or less) will continue into early
Tuesday with precipitation chances ending as the shortwave
exits. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday,
while a strong upper level system begins to drop south out of
Canada into the northern plains. A strong surface cold front associated
with this system will push through the area Wednesday night
bringing a chance of additional rain to the area(30-50% chance).

Temperatures: Tuesdays temperatures will be similar to Monday in
the mid 70s to low 80s, with slightly warmer conditions on
Wednesday ahead of the front. Wednesday should see highs in the
low to mid 80s. The cold front will usher in a much cooler air
mass from Canada with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 70s
and lows from the upper 50s to mid 50s both Thursday, Friday and
Saturday mornings. Current temperature trends are slightly
warmer than previous forecasts and are not putting any records
in jeopardy at this time (current records are listed in the
climate section).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the TAF period.
Broken to overcast cloud cover will persist across the region
overnight into Monday afternoon. Scattered showers, mostly
light, will linger across southwest Missouri through much of the
forecast period, but a few showers may be heavy enough to reduce
visibilities to MVFR levels briefly. The lightning risk is non-
zero but low enough to omit from the current TAFs at this point.
Easterly winds at the start of the period will shift to the
southeast Monday morning, generally remaining less than 12 kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

September 4:
KSGF: 66/2008


Record Low Temperatures:

September 5:
KSGF: 47/1974
KVIH: 44/1902
KUNO: 44/1997

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Lindenberg