323
FXUS63 KSGF 201808
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
108 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will range from the upper 80s northeast of
  Springfield to the 90s elsewhere into the weekend. Heat
  indicies in the upper 90s to around 100 southwest of
  Springfield.

- Marginal risk for severe storms northwest of Springfield late
  Friday night into Saturday Morning. Periodic, scattered rain
  chances (20-40%) will then occur on a daily basis Saturday
  through early next week. Many locations will remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis still showed the region in a northwest flow aloft
with the upper level ridge west of the area across the Rockies.
A surface front has pushed south of the area into central
Oklahoma and Arkansas with northerly low level winds. This has
allowed for some drier air to build in, especially in the mid
levels. Morning clouds and fog slowly eroded however temps have
been slower to heat up northeast of Springfield. Temps in
central Missouri have warmed into the lower 80s with upper 80s
to around 90 elsewhere.

Hot and Dry Conditions: Highs by late afternoon should top out
in the upper 90s southwest of Springfield to the upper 80s
northeast of Springfield. Surface winds will slowly turn
southerly late tonight into Friday as high pressure slides east
of the area. Latest HREF and NBM highlight increased
probabilities for patchy fog overnight to the northeast of
Springfield where winds will be light and skies will be mostly
clear. Currently not seeing a signal for dense fog like this
morning however valleys and other low lying areas will
experience some patchy fog. Further west, a low level jet will
develop overnight across Oklahoma and nose into the 850mb front
across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. An area of isolated
showers/storms may form out towards Wichita and Tulsa but will
most likely remain just west of our southeast Kansas counties.

Friday looks very similar to today however a slight increase in
high temps should occur, especially southwest of Springfield
where a few locations could approach 100 degrees. Mean dewpoints
in the lower to middle 60s will keep heat indicies generally at
or below 100 degrees. An increase in mid and high clouds should
arrive by late afternoon and evening as another disturbance
moves down towards the area.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Periodic Rain Chances: The overall upper level pattern looks
fairly locked in with ensembles suggesting that the upper level
ridge will remain just west of the area. This will keep us in
northwest flow on the northeast periphery of the ridge. While
there are usually dry periods with this pattern, it does allow
for disturbances to slide down and give us occasional precip
chances. One such disturbance slides down Friday night into
Saturday. NBM precip chances are in the 20-40% range with the
main uncertainty on precip placement. The 12z HRRR and RRFS both
differ on placement on a complex of storms late Friday night
into early Saturday morning. The SPC has included the northwest
portion of our area in a marginal risk for late Friday night
into Saturday morning to account for this potential of a
weakening cluster of storms. Confidence is quite low with
respect to this system therefore additional updates are likely.
Ensembles suggest additional shortwaves dropping down Sunday
through Wednesday which will keep these periodic, low precip
chances going.

Continued Hot Temperatures: Outside of any precip chances, mean
850mb temps in the lower 20s Celsius along with increasing
drought (D0 and D1 are expanding per latest Drought Monitor)
should allow for highs to reach the 90s across most of the area
this weekend into early next week. Locations west of Springfield
will be the hottest with highs around 100. We will need to
monitor afternoon mixing since this could/should keep heat
indicies below 100. However if we start seeing higher values
then heat headlines could return, especially given the
prolonged nature of the heat. The Heat Risk tool does show
pockets of the major category across the far southwest corner of
Missouri this weekend into next week. The latest CPC outlook
for late August into early September favors above normal
temperatures continuing.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the period
with passing mid and high level clouds at times. Patchy fog
looks more likely to the northeast of the sites for the
overnight hours however it could creep down closer to SGF and
will monitor in future updates. Surface winds will be light out
of the north until early Friday morning when a shift to the
south will occur. Any precip overnight looks to remain west of
the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield