676
FXUS63 KSGF 121657 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1057 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A G3-4 magnetic storm impacted the Earth overnight with
  Auroras noted in the sky above the Ozarks and areas farther
  south. Some impacts may occur to GPS and communications.

- A warm-up with temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected for
  today into Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average). Record
  high temperatures are in jeopardy Friday and Saturday.

- Though details are uncertain, 30-40% chances for rain are in
  the forecast for next Monday into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

After looking at the 12z SGF sounding and upstream obs we
increased high temps today closer to the NBM 95th percentile
which leads to most places seeing highs in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees. A few low 70s are likely west and south of
Springfield. Also decreased dewpoints some which leads to RH
values in the 25 to 35 percent range today however winds will
remain light out of the west northwest which will keep the fire
danger limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

An area of weak surface high pressure was moving across the
region this morning under upper level northwesterly flow. This
was helping to keep clear skies and light winds across the
area. This pattern is expected to continue for several days with
a slow increase in surface and middle level temperatures
through the end of the week. With 850mb temperatures in the 8-10
degree range for today and then slightly warmer, in the 10-13
degree range for Thursday, this translates into afternoon highs
today in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees and in then upper
60s to middle 70s on Thursday. The warmest temperatures today
will be along the Arkansas state line and mainly west of Highway
65 for Thursday.

The one thing that may impact temperatures would be increases
in cloud cover, for today, this will be a non issue but Thursday
may see some cloud cover early which may hamper temperatures.
Otherwise, there is little to no expected weather impacts
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

For the end of the work week into the start of the weekend,
Friday into Saturday, the middle level warming trend is
expected to continue with surface high pressure remaining and
southwesterly surface winds brining in additional warm air.
current indications from ensembles and NBM guidance suggest a
good potential for a much warmer than seasonal normal for this
period, note the climate section. Probabilistic analysis would
suggest highs from 10 to 15 degrees above normal with some
locations nearing 20 degrees above normal for the period with
high in the middle to upper 70s, depending on any cloud cover
that can be realized.

Synoptic models and ensemble guidance continue to show the
potential for showers and storms to begin next week. The remain
speed and strength differences that would have an impact of
type and severity of weather possible. Some synoptic models
have a negatively tilted upper low moving into the plains and
pushing a cold front with severe storms through the Ozarks
Monday afternoon with other moving the low into the northern
plains pulling most of the moisture north of the region and
brining only a very windy day to the area. In short, for next
Monday into Tuesday, the forecast remains uncertain and little
to no changes occurred for this period.

Interestingly, the CPC forecast for the 6-10 and 8-14 day
periods lean warmer and wetter. The wave 5 plots and
teleconnection pattern, with a +PNA/-NAO expected to persist
into the end of next week, would suggest a persistence
forecast. With the +PNA/-NAO pattern the center of the country
can see an active weather pattern with a semi-persistent ridge
over the west coast and Rockies and energy sliding either over
the ridge into the plains or undercutting the ridge and sliding
out of the Four Corners region, only to be replaced with the
next ridge/trough cycle after 5 to 7 days. This will be watched
going forward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 503 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Light surface winds and clear skies will be the rule today and
tonight as high pressure moves over the region. Expect VFR
flight conditions through this forecast period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 14:
KSGF: 78/1973
KJLN: 79/1964
KVIH: 75/1960
KUNO: 79/1999

November 15:
KSGF: 78/1964
KJLN: 77/1950
KVIH: 79/1955

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Burchfield