137
FXUS63 KSGF 260510
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1210 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) this
  afternoon and evening.

- Additional scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%)
  Saturday and Sunday.

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday
  through Tuesday. Additionally, heavy rainfall may accompany
  this system. Remaining uncertainties in the exact timing,
  locations, and hazards.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through much of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions:  Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show a closed low off the California coast
with some ridging over the plains and a trough axis going
through the Mississippi valley. At the surface, a cold front was
moving into the area from the northwest. Scattered showers were
beginning to develop over west central MO along the boundary and
CAMS show the potential for scattered convection to continue
shifting southeast with the front through the remainder of the
afternoon into the early evening(20-30%).

Mid evening through the overnight: Pops should come to an end by
mid evening with the loss of daytime instability. Stratus will
build into the area late tonight behind the cold front with lows
from the low 50s in the north to the upper 50s along the MO/AR
border.

Saturday - Saturday night: Surface high will shift from the
Mississippi valley into the Ohio valley on Saturday with low
level moisture advection setting back up on the back side of the
high. Embedded mid level shortwave energy will shift through
the area Saturday into Saturday evening with showers and
thunderstorms spreading back across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Showers and storms should come to an end on Sunday morning.
Strong southerly flow will set up in the plains Sunday night
into Monday ahead of a low pressure system and frontal boundary.

Severe storms Monday night - Tuesday Night: Instability will
continue to increase over the area on Monday in the warm sector,
however we are not expecting thunderstorm activity to develop
until Monday night when the cold front begins to approach from
the northwest. Strong to severe storms look favorable with the
front in the northwest CWA Monday night given the CAPE/Shear
profiles, with the front pushing through the area Tuesday into
Tuesday evening. The severe weather risk looks to continue as
the front moves through.

A split flow looks like it sets up aloft, with a southern stream
low beginning to lift northeast in the southern plains on
Wednesday which will bring additional thunderstorms to the area
for the mid to later part of the week. Additional heavy rain
after the frontal system could lead to some excessive rain and
flooding for the middle to later part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

MVFR ceilings are building into the area overnight, with
ceilings around 1500 to 2500 feet. A period of IFR ceilings
around 700 to 900 feet appears to overcome KSGF and KBBG into
early Saturday morning. VFR ceilings return by 18Z on Saturday.
Winds light out of the northeast overnight, becoming more
easterly into Saturday afternoon. Rain chances increase on
Saturday evening/night in the later part of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Perez