473
FXUS63 KSGF 041708
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s (5 to 15 degrees
  above normal) and mainly dry weather expected through the
  weekend.

- 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday through
  Tuesday. Rainfall totals are expected to mainly be sparse and
  light.

- Some uncertainty still exists in the pattern for the end of
  next week, though models are starting to favor near to above
  normal temperatures to persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Current mid-level water vapor imagery shows widespread dry air
across the central and southern Plains states as a positively-
tilted shortwave ridge axis stretches from southern TX, up
through MO, and into the Great Lakes region. Southeast of the
ridge axis is a weak and subtle shortwave trough that had slowly
moved through our region the past few days. Both of these
features fall under a large-scale ridge situated over the
central and eastern CONUS. West of the ridge axis is a potent
shortwave trough over NV.


High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through the weekend:

The ridge axis over the area will continue to allow clear skies
and above normal temperatures in the middle to upper 80s today
and Sunday. This continues our streak of temperatures 10 to 15
degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also continue to be
mild in the middle 50s to lower 60s.


Slightly breezier conditions and drier air this weekend:

The aforementioned shortwave trough will rotate NE and eject off
the Rockies into the northern Plains. This will force a surface
low pressure system over ND/SD, which will tighten the surface
pressure gradient across the southern Plains. As such, we can
expect slightly breezier conditions this weekend with sustained
winds at 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph at times, especially
west of Highway 65.

Additionally, the increased wind speeds along with surface high
pressure departing to the east should promote mixdown of the
mid-level dry air. This should decrease afternoon relative
humidity values into the 30-40% range today and Sunday. Pattern
recognition along with some members of the HREF suggest
localized areas could see values below 30% (HREF gives a 20-40%
chance of this for some locations within our forecast area).
This, combined with breezy winds, may introduce a very minor
fire weather risk to localized areas that are especially
impacted by drought-like conditions and browning fall fuels.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday:

After the shortwave trough ejects through into Canada, the
pattern that remains is a positively-tilted trough from CA up to
ND, with the jet stream oriented along that axis. This will
produce a baroclinic zone to the surface in the form of a cold
front stretching from the TX/OK panhandles NE to the northern
Great Lakes. This front is expected to be stalled Monday and
Tuesday as the upper-level jet sits in its place. This means
rain chances along the front should stay north and west of our
area. This will also allow temperatures to stay warm in the
middle 80s Monday and Tuesday with lows persisting in the middle
50s to lower 60s.

Meanwhile, a weak mid-level disturbance is progged to lift north
out of the Gulf, advecting better moisture into our area.
Increased moisture will allow for at least weak instability and
lift from the mid-level disturbance will bring a 20-30% chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. The
scattered nature of the precipitation will keep rainfall totals
rather sparse and light with some areas receiving no rain at
all. Of course, any area that sees a thunderstorm will see
locally higher amounts, but flooding is not an expected threat.

The stalled cold front is then forecast to surge through the
area Tuesday night as the shortwave trough finally shifts
eastward. The timing of the frontal passage overnight along with
synoptic ascent staying north of the area will keep rain chances
low (<20%) as the front passes.


Models starting to favor near to above normal temps late week:

After the cold front passes, temperatures are expected to
decrease at least slightly. NBM spreads are pretty confident in
high temperatures ranging in the middle 70s Wednesday with lows
in the 50s. After Wednesday, some uncertainty still exists in
the exact nature of the pattern. Ensemble members are starting
to come into agreement with a deep trough entering the west
coast, with a downstream amplified ridge over the Rockies and
perhaps central Plains. The uncertainties are two-fold. Firstly,
how far east the ridge extends. Secondly, if any shortwaves drop
through the area. A further west ridge along with shortwave
troughs moving through would allow for cooler temperatures near
normal. A further east ridge would allow for above normal
temperatures near to above 80 F. Either scenario, the large-
scale pattern is greater heights over the region which is
tightening NBM spreads toward near and above normal temperatures
from recent forecasts. Depending on small-scale features, we
could see some small deviations in temperatures, but for the
most part, expect highs in the 70s to near or above 80 F, and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

For the 18z TAFS, high pressure and dry air over the area will
keep VFR conditions in place through the period. Will see
southerly winds of 10 to 15 kts and some potential gusts at
SGF/JLN up to 20 kts during this afternoon and again by mid
morning on Sunday with a pressure gradient tightening up as a
storm system lifts northeast to our west and high pressure
centered to our east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Lindenberg