427
FXUS63 KSGF 261833
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
133 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will move through
  portions of the area late this afternoon into tonight,
  lingering into early Sunday morning. Low potential for
  localized heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday
  through Tuesday. Additionally, heavy rainfall may accompany
  this system. Remaining uncertainties in the exact timing,
  locations, and hazards.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through mid to late
  next week. Additional potential for heavy rainfall and
  flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Low level clouds and slightly cooler conditions are currently in
place across the area early this afternoon. Temperatures are
currently in the upper 50s to the middle 60s across the area.
Highs will continue to warm into the lower to upper 60s this
afternoon.

An upper level disturbance is currently moving northeast across
the southern Plains. Showers and a few storms are occurring
ahead of the disturbance across Oklahoma into southern Kansas.
This activity will continue to slowly move northeast late this
afternoon and evening into tonight. The weak instability will
remain southwest of the area and not move into the area with
this activity. There may be the potential for a few embedded
rumbles of thunder across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri, but with the lack of instability this
activity will mainly be in the form of showers. With the lack of
instability the rainfall rates will also be lighter as it moves
east across the area this evening into tonight. Also, coverage
may decrease too and be more scattered in nature at any given
time. Ceilings will also lower tonight into Sunday morning and
some drizzle will be possible at times. Visibility could be
reduced at times with any drizzle tonight into Sunday morning.

A warm front will lift north through the area on Sunday. Some
lingering light rain showers or drizzle will remain possible
into Sunday morning then will push off to the east. Clouds will
start to clear from west to east Sunday afternoon into the
evening hours. Some instability may start to develop across the
west where the clouds clear during the afternoon hours. Lift
will be on the weaker side so not expecting widespread
precipitation, but a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may
be possible across the western portions of the forecast area
Sunday afternoon/early evening. Highs are expected to range from
the lower 60s across central Missouri to near 80 degrees across
extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri
Sunday. Clouds will linger over central Missouri longer into the
day and warm air advection will begin from the southwest to
northeast resulting in the range of temperature across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

The warmer air mass will continue to advect into the region on
Monday as highs warm into the lower to middle 80s. A cap will
be in place across the area on Monday keeping the area dry
through the day. An upper level trough will move east across
the Plains on Monday. A front will move southeast and remain
north of the area through Monday night. Storms will develop
along the front and if a cold pool develops there is the
potential they can move off the front and move south into the
area late Monday night into Tuesday morning. With the cap in
place it is also possible the storms remain north of the area
through the nighttime hours. If storms can move into the area
gusty winds and hail would be possible with the storms.

The front will continue to move southeast trough the area on
Tuesday. There is still some differences between the models on
the exact timing. Instability will increase as the cap weakens
on Tuesday, allowing storms to develop. Large hail and damaging
winds would be the main expected risk at this time.

The front will then stall somewhere over the region mid week as
an upper level trough moves out of the southwestern CONUS.
Rounds of showers and a few storms will develop and move along
the front at times from Tuesday night into Thursday. With the
front stalling and moving north and south across the region
there will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
flooding across region. Will have to get a better handle on the
exact location of the front each day as it could shift slightly,
and also how large the rain shield will be with the rain along
the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

MVFR ceilings will remain in place across the area this
afternoon into this evening. Ceilings will then lower to IFR
conditions tonight into Sunday morning. An area of showers will
move east across portions of the area late this afternoon into
this evening. Some showers or drizzle could remain possible at
times tonight into early Sunday. A few thunderstorms are
possible, but instability is limited therefore coverage and
chances in thunder is low at the TAF sites during this TAF
period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise