479
FXUS63 KSGF 032342
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 40-70% chances of rain return Friday and last into early next
  weekend. Monitoring for limited flooding potential.

- Temperature and precipitation favored to be above normal for
  next week, but hazardous conditions are not expected at this
  time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 0115 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A high pressure center sits over the midwest today with ridging
and anticyclonic flow dominating the eastern half of the CONUS.
Across the High Plains and to the west, the pattern is more
active, with a low pressure center churning just north of
Montana, lows off the PNW and Baja regions, and shortwave energy
kicking off some precipitation across New Mexico and Texas. The
high pressure holds true for us today, bringing a gorgeous day
of sunshine with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and
comfortable dewpoints in the 50s.

Moisture and cloud cover increase tonight as the troughing to the
west begins to push in. This will keep things pretty warm tonight
with lows in the 60s west of Springfield and in the upper 50s to the
east where the high pressure still holds more influence.

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible tomorrow as shortwave
energy moves northeast through the area. This potential is confined
to areas west and south of Springfield where moisture is maximized,
and PoPs remain below 30%. These would be quick, light, summertime
showers. With the return to southerly flow, highs will climb into
the low to mid 80s. Dewpoints near 70 will make for a slightly
uncomfortable heat. The good news is that partial cloud cover will
break up the direct sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 0115 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Upper level ridging will be across the Appalachians, Tennessee
Valley, and into New England by Thursday evening. This will
allow for south to southwesterly flow from the Gulf bringing
deep moisture into the Ozarks to produce showers and isolated
storms as an upper level shortwave moves across the plains.
Thanks to the southerly flow, precipitable water values in the
1.5 to 1.7 inch range, limited instability and a 25 to 30kt low
level jet providing some lift will allow for rather efficient
rainfall where rain occurs. The overall pattern remains similar
into and through the weekend, though moisture gets trapped under
a building ridge and a shortwave/upper low moves up the western
edge of the ridge Sunday into Monday. This dirty ridge will
keep rain chances in place from Thursday night into early next
week.

In general, rain chances remain in the 40 to 70% as indicated
in previous discussions through the next 7 days. The details in
how much remain in flux however. The chances more than 0.10
inches of rain on any given day range from less than 20%
Thursday this week and Wednesday through Friday next week to as
much as 50 to 80% this Friday through Monday. Sunday and Monday
also present the best potential for rainfall of an inch or
greater with a 20 to 25% chance each day.

If we look at the next 7 days as a whole, the region can expect
to see from 0.75 to 2.00 inches of rainfall. some locations may
see a little more or a little less.

Through the period, the temperature trend will be on a slow
climb thanks to building upper level ridging. Temperatures will
generally rise through the 80s, potentially reaching the upper
80s to around 90 by the end of next week. Additionally, dew
points will be on the rise as well helping to increase humidity
levels. This will occur thanks to rainfall and continued
atmospheric moisture advection from the Gulf and the southwest
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Passing high clouds and 5-10 kt southeasterly winds are expected
to continue through 14Z. After 14Z, 8-13 kt surface winds will
become more southerly, increasing moisture. Therefore, some low
clouds are expected after 14Z. There is some question on if
these cigs become MVFR. For now, the chance is <30%, keeping
mention of 4 kft BKN cigs.

Between 18-00Z, some pop-up showers and thunderstorms will
develop around the area, with less than 30% chance of them
impacting SGF and BBG directly. The best chance for
precipitation impacting a TAF site will be at JLN where a PROB30
is mentioned at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Hatch/Nelson
AVIATION...Price