044
FXUS63 KSGF 052311
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
511 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle, scattered showers (30-70%) and Dense Fog, reducing
  visibilities below a mile (localized below 1/4 mile) are
  expected to impact much of the Ozarks this afternoon and
  through early Thursday Morning.

- Heading into the end of the week and the weekend there will
  be several days with a large spread in temperatures over a
  relatively short distance, with colder temperatures north of
  I-44 and warmer temps south.

- Precipitation chances (30-60%) return this weekend, with eyes
  out for potential wintry precip after Sunday and into next
  week. No further details are available at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A weak area of surface low pressure and a frontal boundary in
the vicinity of the Ozarks was producing and broad area of
stratus across much of the region. Satellite imagery Showed
dense stratus southwest to the Red River Valley, west into
western Kansas and north into southern Minnesota. As a result
of the large area of clouds ceilings in stratus were as low as a
few hundred feet. Some locations were seeing stratus build down
to the ground, especially for elevated location, while lower
areas were impacted by fog. This has resulted in periods of
patchy dense fog across the region which expected to continue
this evening and overnight into Thursday morning. As a result,
a Dense Fog Advisory is in place for most of the Ozarks region
through this afternoon and into Thursday morning.

Additionally, increased moisture and lift coinciding with these
areas of lowered ceilings and visibilities has led to drizzle
and showers over portions of the area which may linger into
later this afternoon.

There is a pretty widespread temperature disparity from north
to south across the Ozarks which is expected to continue and
will be tied to how far north the frontal boundary makes it
through this evening. Highs in the 50s in far southern Missouri
next to upper 50s to low 60s in northern Arkansas will occur
with decreasing temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s
closer to central MO. The exact placement of these temperatures
will depend on how far north the front lifts before pushing back
south as a cold front on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

By Thursday late afternoon into the evening, surface high
pressure over the northern plains will make its way towards the
Ozarks and provide for improving conditions across the Ozarks.
This will push the frontal boundary to the south of the region
allowing for a return of some sunshine to the region thursday.
Though this may be short-lived however.

The overall upper level pattern is expected to remain zonal and
active with several shortwaves moving through the pattern and
bringing weather changes about every 24 to 36 hours. With this
in mind, the Thursdays high pressure will shift north and east
as the next wave moves though allowing a warm front to lift back
into the region brining a return of cloud cover and the
potential for drizzle and fog once again.

Afternoon highs will once again vary across the area Friday. This
time with warmer temperatures in the far southwest and cooler
towards central Missouri. Another low pressure system will
approach the Ozarks Friday night and move across the region
Saturday morning. This will bring 20-50% chances of rain Friday
night into Saturday.

A cold front is the expected to move through the area behind
this system, bringing much cooler temperatures in the upper 30s
to low 40s by Sunday afternoon though conditions are expected to
be mainly dry.

As we head into next week, models have been persistent in
showing several upper level shortwaves moving over the region.
This would provide a pattern favorable for colder temperatures
(highs in the 30s and lows in the teen/20s) and potential wintry
precipitation. Being so far out, any confidence in
precipitation types and amounts remains significantly low, so
check back for future forecast updates as we get closer to this
time period and confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

For the 00z TAFS, MVFR/IFR and LIFR conditions are expected for
much of the forecast period. Low ceilings and visibility are
expected to continue until Thursday afternoon with a frontal
boundary hanging around the area. For SGF/BBG which will start
out in MVFR, conditions will likely deteriorate this evening
into IFR and LIFR. JLN, should remain there into Thursday
afternoon.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Record High Temperatures:

February 6:
KUNO: 66/2017

February 8:
KUNO: 69/2015

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Thursday
     for KSZ073.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Thursday for KSZ097-101.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Thursday
     for MOZ055-056-066>070-081-082.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Thursday for MOZ077>080-
     088>097-101>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Camden