405
FXUS63 KSGF 081054
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
554 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Watch along a corridor roughly from the Joplin to
  the Lake of the Ozarks region Sunday through Wednesday. Heat
  indices near/around 105 are expected on a daily basis in this
  area. Heat indicies around 100 are expected elsewhere early
  next week.

- Rain chances return Wednesday through Friday (20-50%),
  especially north of Interstate 44.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a upper level high across the southwest US.
An upper level disturbance responsible for the evening
storms/flooding was shifting southeast into Arkansas. Clouds
were beginning to clear from the northwest. Temps were largely
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Dry and Hot Today: Clouds will continue to clear out early this
morning and there could be some patchy fog around sunrise.
Otherwise mostly sunny skies are expected today. Highs will
generally be in the upper 80s across the east to the
lower/middle 90s from Springfield and points west. Winds will be
light with not alot of mixing occuring. Therefore a few
locations west of Springfield could see heat indices reach 100.

Overnight, a weak shortwave looks to cause showers and storms
across Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Almost all guidance has
this activity weakening and perhaps even dissipating before
reaching the area by early Sunday morning. We will need to
monitor latest guidance to make sure that activity does not make
it in here. Precip chances are currently less than 10 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Extreme Heat Watch Sunday - Wednesday: Ensemble guidance is in
agreement that the upper level ridge out west will
elongate/spread east late weekend through early next week.
Rising heights and increasing 850mb temps will allow for temps
to increase well back into the 90s. NBM interquartile ranges are
about 3-5 degrees with many areas reaching the lower to upper
90s. Locations west of Springfield have not seen as much rain
lately and those areas could see highs approach 100 by Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Those temps alone are not unusual for this time of year however
with dews staying in the upper 60s to lower 70s, this will push
heat indicies up to 100 degrees with some areas around 105
degrees for several days. This creates a prolonged heat risk.
So far many times this summer we have seen highest afternoon
dewpoints and heat indicies off of the higher terrain of the
Ozark Plateau. We have seen deeper mixing on the plateau with
heat indices staying a tad lower. Currently the highest
confidence area for heat indicies to reach 105 is in the area
that we will be issuing an Extreme Heat Watch for Sunday through
Wednesday from roughly a corridor from the Joplin metro up
towards the Lake of the Ozarks region. What may occur is that an
eventual Heat Advisory may be needed for most of the area with
some areas getting into a Extreme Heat Warning. Future updates
will expand on this possibility.

Also of note is that the NWS Experimental Heat Risk tool does
show a large portion of the area in the major category which
means that heat related impacts affect anyone with
cooling/hydration as well as health systems and industries.

Rain Chances Return Mid/Late Week: Ensemble cluster analysis
then shows the ridge flattening out a bit with a return to a
slightly northwest flow aloft which will allow for a return to
precip chances. Currently rain chances are highest north of I-44
however confidence in placement of rain chances at this range in
that type of pattern is low and would expect additional changes
with future updates. NBM temps spreads are much larger by late
next week which also leads to a lower confidence time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with a few
passing high clouds. Winds will remain light out of the south to
southwest this morning with a gradual shift to the
southeast through the day.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for MOZ055>058-066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield