115
FXUS63 KSGF 112206
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
506 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms over west central MO
  into southeast KS Tuesday evening. Main risk will be with
  damaging wind up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters.

- Well above normal temperature are expected late week into next
  weekend with highs in the 80s late week into next weekend.

- There`s a 20-40% chance for thunderstorms across the entire
  area intermittently from Friday through Sunday. If you have
  outdoor plans next weekend, be sure to keep up with the latest
  forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Water vapor and upper level analysis show weak northwest flow
over the area with a mid/upper level ridge axis from the 4
corners region into the west coast of British Columbia. A
shortwave over east TX was bringing convection along the Gulf
coast of east TX and LA. Surface high pressure was over the area
with a dry air mass in place. Humidity levels have dipped into
the 20s and 30s over the area. Winds are light and variable with
the high pressure over the area.

Tonight-Tuesday: High pressure will slowly drift south and east
of the area with a southerly wind redeveloping by morning. The
low level southerly flow will help to draw some moisture back to
the north and into western sections of the forecast area during
the day on the western side of the high pressure and ahead of
an approaching cold front. A thermal cap will develop over the
area during the day with MUCAPES along the front up to 1300
j/kg developing. Not expecting the cap to break until Tuesday
evening. Highs should reach the upper 70s to low 80s across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Tuesday night marginal risk: The frontal convergence will be
weaker over our forecast area which will limit thunderstorm
coverage as it moves into west central MO and southeast Kansas
in the evening. Thermodynamic and shear profiles would still
suggest a marginal risk for hail and wind over the area with
winds up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size. CAMS show
scattered coverage along the front, but quickly diminish
coverage and intensity by 03-04z.

Wed-Thu: Upper level ridge axis begins to shift eastward and
over the area by Thursday. Southerly low level flow will begin
to draw Gulf moisture back into the area on Thursday, continuing
through the upcoming weekend. Precipitation chances should
increase ahead of upper level energy which will start to push
into the area Thursday night and a frontal boundary stalling out
in the area over the weekend.

Temperatures will warm up into the mid 80s to around 90 by
Friday into the weekend, although rain chances could lower these
values slightly over the weekend as precipitation chances
increase.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will occur across the region this evening into
the day on Tuesday as highs pressure moves across the region.
Light winds will occur this evening and tonight and south to
southwesterly winds will develop on Tuesday and be gusty at
times Tuesday morning and afternoon as the high pressure starts
to move off to the east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise