770
FXUS63 KSGF 212330
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
630 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures and dry for the rest of this week,
  with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Below average temperatures to start early next week.

- 20 to 50% rain chances will occur at times early next week
  with the highest chances occurring over southwestern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Fair weather cumulus have formed over us today and will bring a
small (5-10%) chance of showers this evening especially over
southern MO. Otherwise, another warm, dry day is occurring
today with highs topping out in the lower 90s with light
northerly winds. Skies will begin to clear out this evening and
allow low temperatures tonight to dip into the lower 60s.

Friday will be very similar to today with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s with a bit less cloud cover tomorrow partially due
to the lower dewpoints expected. Dewpoints will be in the upper
50s instead of the mid 60s where we have been the past few days.
Northerly winds will be light once again and Friday night will
be very similar to Thursday night as far as temperatures sitting
in the lower 60s with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

This weekend will still be warm as mid-level ridging occurs over
the desert southwest. Expect highs in the 80s and 90s with lows
in the 50s and 60s with partly cloudy skies. But, a cooldown is
on the way! The mid-level ridge starts to break down by Sunday
and a large trough begins to move into the Great Lakes region.
This will allow cooler air to move into the area for the start
of next week as well as chances for rain to return. The cold
front starts to move through overnight Sunday into Monday and
POPs are at 15-30% for southwest MO. The cold air advection will
continue to settle into the area on Tuesday with a 20-50% chance
of more widespread showers then. Though, SW MO still has the
highest chances for rain with this upcoming pattern change.
Even with this cold front is still a few days out, the signal
for cooler and rainier weather is evident. The Climate
Prediction Center has our entire area in a 53% chance for below
normal temperatures and a 37% chance for above normal
precipitation for the end of August into the beginning of
September. The weather will be rather enjoyable with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows getting as low as 40
degrees in some places.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Calm through the TAF period. North-northeasterly 5-15kt winds
will calm to 3-8kts with fewer gusts after 06Z as direction
veers more easterly overnight. A handful of scattered low
(5-6kft base) cumulus are the main clouds of note through the
period.

Some ground fog will develop between 10-12Z, with areas more
towards central MO most likely to see development and "worst"
conditions being MVFR (5SM vis). With low (30% or less) chances
of visibility falling below 5SM across southwest Missouri,
impacts are not likely at TAF sites. If the low-chance scenario
panned out, KBBG would be most likely to see slight visibility
reductions (based on this morning`s obs), but drier air moving
into the area should still prohibit conditions deteriorating
below VFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Camden