554
FXUS63 KSGF 240905
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
405 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily heat index values in the middle 90s to lower 100s will
  occur across the area each day this week.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening shower and storm
  chances (15-25%) will be possible each day through the end of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern:
00Z upper air observations indicate the greater Ozarks area to
be within weak southwesterly flow aloft along the western
periphery of a vertically-stacked high pressure/ridge that is
currently parked over the southern Ohio River Valley. A synoptic
low sits over western Iowa to our north, with a stagnated front
stretching from northwest Kansas through Iowa into the Great
Lakes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are spread along the
front, which is also serving as the focal point for moisture
transport from the Gulf.

Moisture, PoPs, showers/storms:
Our 00Z sounding recorded a 1.56" PW (up from 1.38" at 12Z
Monday) and model soundings indicate that the total atmospheric
moisture content will continue to inch up slowly to around 1.75"
as we catch the edge of the moisture transport into the front to
our north. Most of this moisture transport will be realized in
the mid- to upper- levels, with model soundings indicating that
the profiles across the area ~00Z Wednesday will look very
similar to the 00Z Tuesday observation, with at least 2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE likely to build up by dinnertime. Widespread high
cirrus with low-level cu bubbles anticipated to pop up with
heating, though sunshine is expected to filter through the
clouds.

The slight thermodynamic difference from Monday that would ever
so slightly increase chances of showers and storms (in addition
to increased moisture) is that the mid-level cap will be much
weaker, and we will be pushing right up to convective temps
(31-33C, or 87-92F) with our forecast highs firmly in the 89-93
range this afternoon. Saturation in the 700-500mb layer will be
around 50%, with 5-10 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, which will
contribute to a favorable environment for pulse thunderstorm
development. While this may result in a higher number of
popcorn-type cells developing, coverage is still expected to be
very low, keeping likelihood of showers or storms impacting a
single point low still (15-25%). The most favorable area for
development is in the eastern Ozarks, especially Shannon/Oregon
counties.

Local climatology studies of pulse thunderstorms indicate that
the forecast 925 mb temperatures in the 24-26C range are
straddled around the 50th percentile for non-severe storms and
on the lowest end of the distribution for severe storms. This
means that severe is not expected with any storms that develop,
though there may be some gusty winds to 50 mph with the dry
microburst low-level profile and brief heavy rainfall if storms
do initiate.

Temps/heat:
As previously mentioned, forecast highs today will be in the
89-93 range. Mix-down of drier air will be weaker today but
still present, so dew points are expected to be generally be in
the 70-74 range. This gives us heat indices in the 95-100 range
again. Winds aren`t expected to be as breezy today, with a
pretty consistent south-southwesterly wind around 10 mph
expected. This may decrease the amount of relief from the
breeze, so time in the sun may feel more strenuous than the
previous couple days. Heat Risk remains largely Moderate to
Major (levels 2 and 3 out of 4, respectively) so continue to be
mindful of heat safety. Heat Advisory criteria (HI around 105)
continues to look quite unattainable. Low temps in the lower
70s.

Wednesday:
Different day, same story. Highs 89-92, heat indices 95-100,
lows 70-74, under high pressure with afternoon/evening pulse
storm potential. Chances (15-25%) for short-lived, non-severe
pop-up storms expand slightly further north across the I-44
corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Less of a chance of pop-up storms on Thursday as the ridge
loosens its hold on our area, but still generally a persistence
forecast Thursday before the atmosphere gets moving a little bit
on Friday. With the weakening influence of the high pressure to
our southeast, shortwave energy is able to push further south
into our area, bringing 15-35% chances for some showers and
storms on Friday and Saturday.

While temperature spreads are still relatively low (5 degrees or
less) and focused within the same general 89-92 degree range,
increasing strength of low-level southwesterly winds on Friday
into the weekend may raise temperatures a degree or two. Heat
indices would largely stay in the 95-100 range with this, but
maybe closer to 100 with a 1-2 degree increase in temperature.
Lows in the lower 70s to continue as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR through the TAF period. South-southwesterly winds 5-10 kts.
Some scattered high clouds along the periphery of a larger
storm complex in northeast Missouri will become more widespread
through the TAF period, with a scattered low-level cumulus
field developing underneath this afternoon.

There is a low (<30%) chance of short-lived, localized pop-up
showers and thunderstorms across southern Missouri this
afternoon, with relatively higher chances at KSGF and KBBG,
though KJLN does have a non-zero chance as well. Not reflected
in the TAFs because confidence in exactly where each tiny cell
pops up is low and confidence in impacts to TAF sites is even
lower, but afternoon satellite trends will be monitored and
TAFs will be adjusted proactively if vertical development
suggests precip/thunder impacts within the vicinity of a
terminal.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

June 27:
KSGF: 76/1934

June 30:
KSGF: 77/2018

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden