607
FXUS63 KSGF 082351
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
651 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas along and west of
  Highway 65 today and Sunday. Maximum afternoon temperatures in
  the middle to upper 90s, with heat index values around 100 to
  105 degrees. Heat and humidity persist through the weekend.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (10-30%) return late Saturday
  into Sunday, persisting into next week (30-50%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Upper level ridging and southwesterly surface flow will continue
overnight. This will keep the heat and humidity in place with
overnight lows only falling into the middle 70s to around 80
degrees, especially for areas along and west of I-49. With
little in the way of recovery expected overnight the Heat
Advisory have been extended through the day Saturday.

Surface winds were rather breezy as well thanks to the fairly
tight surface gradient. Winds were generally southerly from 10
to 15 mph but with occasional gusts from 20 to 30mph in some
locations. This would normally be helpful with the heat. But
with such strong winds, combined with the excessive heat, the
air may feel more like a convection oven at times.

Temperatures and humidity Saturday are once again expected to
climb into the middle to upper 90s. This will allow afternoon
heat index indicies to be from 100 to 105+ across areas
generally west of Highway 5 and Highway 65.

Rain chances remain minimal (<10%) through Saturday afternoon
and evening. Any subtle shortwave moving through the pattern
may produce a short lived shower thanks to the instability in
place, but rainfall amounts may only be a few hundredths if any.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Saturday night into Sunday: The ridge begins to slowly shift as
an upper low moves across southcentral Canada and the northern
plains. Synoptic models show a weak cold front trying to slide
south towards the region. Ensembles struggle to get the front
much farther south than Highway 54 however, despite some
synoptic model output being more bullish. This would support
marginal rain chances (10-30%) though across west central and
central MO. Confidence does remain low for any widespread
rainfall chances however, as the ridge appears to remain in
control for time being as the front meanders into northern MO.

Next Week: As we progress into early next week, additional rain
chances (30-50%) overspread the area as the front lingers across
portions of northern into central Missouri. There remains uncertainty
on the exact timing and details on rain chances for any one day
next week.

After the dry period the region has experiences over the past
several weeks or so, and precipitation will be welcome,
especially for portions of southern MO after the introduction of
abnormally dry conditions for portions of the Ozarks in the
Drought Monitor this week. Daily rain chances may impact
forecast high temperatures and cloud cover, but the general
consensus is for temperatures to be closer to normal for mid
August. This would be characterized by highs around 90 and lows
around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Daytime gusty winds will continue to be the only TAF impact as
VFR conditions persist. Look for chances for showers and
thunderstorms at times starting Saturday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>057-066>070-
     077>081-088>096-101>104.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Titus