602
FXUS63 KSGF 221701
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1101 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will occur across
  the area today.

- Warming trend through the weekend, with highs near to above
  normal. Wind gusts near 30 mph are expected Sunday.

- Rain chances increase into the middle part of next week.
  Uncertainty remains on the timing of highest rain chances.

- Increasing confidence on below normal temperatures returning
  mid next week into early December.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the deep upper low continues to move into
the eastern US. A highly amplified ridge was still centered
across the Rockies with a dry northwest flow across the Missouri
Ozarks. The 00z KSGF sounding continued to measure a very dry
airmass with a precipitable water value of 0.19in which is near
the 10th percentile. This dry air is also entrenched all the way
south into the Gulf Coast region where dewpoints are in the 30s
and 40s with northerly winds.

Surface high pressure axis was located from the Dakotas south
into Oklahoma and winds were much lighter than they have been
the last few days. The exception is areas east of Highway 63
where affects of the low are still apparent. Low stratus has
shifted southwest through eastern Missouri with the edge
currently over the Rolla/Salem areas. Lighter winds, mostly
clear skies and dewpoints in the 20s have allowed for temps to
fall well into the 30s outside of this stratus deck. Valleys
and wind protected areas have fallen into the upper 20s per
public weather stations.

Today through Tonight: Latest HREF supports the low stratus
drifting west to roughly a Truman Lake to Bolivar to
Gainesville line through early morning before beginning to erode
during the late morning. A few passing high clouds will move
through during the afternoon however mostly clear skies are
expected with the exception of the Rolla area where low clouds
may take a little longer to erode. The high pressure axis will
be spreading in and winds will become variable with speeds
generally at or below 10mph which will be a change from the last
few days. With the slight increase in mid level heights and
thickness values late in the day, high temps should be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday however still below average with
upper 40s to lower 50s.

Light to calm wind, dew points in the 20s and mostly clear skies
should allow for temps to fall rapidly this evening and we have
gone with a little colder guidance for tonight with the eastern
ozarks and typical colder spots reaching the middle 20s with
other locations reaching the upper 20s to around 30. We may need
to go even colder for the eastern Ozarks.

Saturday: The mid level ridge will begin to shift further east
into the central plains with high pressure sliding southeast of
the area. A return to southerly winds and warmer temps are
expected as mean 850mb temps reach 8-10C. Latest NBM has a
small spread in highs which leads to high confidence that many
areas will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will begin to
increase late in the day and evening as low pressure begins to
take shape across the lee of the Rockies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Sunday: Ensembles are in decent agreement that the ridge will
become suppressed and slightly zonal across the area as a low
amplitude shortwave moves across the Rockies. Surface low
pressure looks to strengthen across Kansas with an associated
front. Increasing southerly winds and warm air advection (gusts
of 25-30 mph) across the area out ahead of the front will cause
temps to climb above average with the NBM showing highs in the
lower to upper 60s (60-90% chance of highs at least 65
degrees). We will need to monitor wind gusts on Sunday as
guidance suggests that a 50kt low level jet will nose into the
area during the afternoon. Any clearing may allow us to mix some
stronger gusts to the surface however currently probs for wind
gusts over 40mph remains low (less than 30 percent).

The cold front is favored to move into the area either late Sunday
night or Monday morning (ensembles vary on the timing). Given
the dry air across the southern US the several days preceding
this front, we are skeptical how much moisture this front will
have to work with. A few ensemble members are showing some sprinkles
or very light rain for areas east of Springfield late Sunday
night/Monday morning with the frontal passage however chances
remain less than 30% and the majority of ensembles keep the area
dry. If the system slows down further it could allow for a
little more time for moisture to return and this will be
something to monitor.

Monday through Tuesday: Ensemble clusters keep the area in
zonal flow behind the progressive shortwave that moves through
Monday. Depending on cloud cover highs could be in the upper 40s
or middle 50s. Ensembles disagree on the speed of shortwave
energy that will move into the western US late Tuesday. However
Tuesday currently looks dry as high pressure moves through.

Wednesday through Thursday: While there is considerable model
variance, there has been a trend in a faster, more progressive
system moving through central US during this time frame. Strong
lift looks to cause rain chances to increase on Wednesday and
precip chances are now in the 30-60% range. The overall track
and speed of this system is still uncertain however if the
system does indeed remain fairly progressive then a quicker
exit of precip would occur on Thursday. Little to no ensemble
members are suggesting any wintry precip with this system at
this time. That being said, the system will not get sampled by
the upper air network until early next week therefore additional
updates are likely.

Cold air looks to drop south behind this system and ensembles
are suggesting a split flow regime setting up for several days
after Thursday with a dry and cold northwest flow aloft across
our area and a warmer, southern jet stream located well south of
the area. This also fits the latest CPC outlooks of below
average temperatures going into early December.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. An area of low-level clouds across central Missouri will
dissipate through this afternoon, and remains east of the
terminals. Winds light at 5 to 10 knots out of the northwest,
becoming variable tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Perez