074
FXUS63 KSGF 020449
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1149 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (30-60%) return Friday and last through the
  weekend. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
  Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Convection this afternoon and early evening:
 - Impacts: Severe storms with isolated 60-70 mph winds and hail
   up to the size of half dollars. Localized flooding.
 - Details: Strong to severe storms are expected south of I-44.
   These storms are starting to fire as of 1:20pm and will
   continue into early this evening before pushing south of the
   area.
 - Confidence: 80-90% confidence in warnings being required.
 - Meteorological Analysis: A weak front pushing south will
   continue to initiate convection in an area of agitated
   cumulus. SBCAPE values of 4,500+ J/kg will support aggressive
   updraft development, but very weak bulk shear of < 20 kts
   will prevent organization. This decreases the hail threat
   substantially, with generally small to marginally severe hail
   expected. Will advertise up to half dollar size. Main hazard
   will be localized damaging winds up to 60-70 mph due to
   0-3km theta-e differences of 30-40 K. OPSTI values up to
   14-16 also shows strong support for severe pulse storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Quiet those most of this period, but rain chances return late
this week into next weekend:
 - Impacts: Too early to tell, but will be watching for any
   flooding threats. Risk appears low at this time, though.
 - Details: Moving back into a rainy pattern late this week
   through next weekend.
 - Confidence: Medium.
 - Meteorological Analysis: The upper high over the central
   CONUS keeps the area fairly quiet will shift east late this
   week as upper troughing settles over the midwest. This will
   lead to a wetter pattern. Ensemble PWATs are generally
   1.5-2", which is around 150% of normal. This may support a
   flooding threat, but important details related to that have a
   low predictability at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with the
exception of some brief MVFR vis due to patchy fog at BBG
around 12z. A thunderstorm complex in Kansas will likely begin
to shift southeast into Oklahoma overnight, most likely staying
west of the area however high clouds will stream in. Surface winds
will be out of the north to northeast with some increasing
gusts around 18kts Tuesday afternoon at SGF.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Burchfield