512
FXUS63 KSGF 012030
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A lingering stationary front will bring patchy light fog north
  of Highway 60 tonight and Friday morning, with a 20-40% chance
  of spotty light rain south of Highway 60 during the day.
  Expect less than a tenth of an inch of rain.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue through
  much of next week before a pattern change brings our next
  chance of precipitation during the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Visible satellite imagery depicts a blanket of low stratus
receding northward across north-central Missouri. Along and
south of the receding stratus is a mostly stationary front
stretched across south-central Missouri, Kentucky, and Virginia.
This front marks the boundary of the stalled jet stream pattern
aloft which consists of a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS
with northwesterly flow over the central CONUS. This frontal
boundary is leading to a large gradient of temperatures from
north to south across our CWA. Temperatures in the north are on
track to have highs in the middle 40s, with temperatures in the
south on track to reach the lower to middle 60s.


Patchy light fog north of Hwy 60 tonight into Friday morning:

A pattern similar to last night will take place again tonight as
the front continues to linger around the area. Cooler
temperatures in the mid 30s amid residual moisture north of the
boundary will lead to low stratus to drop back south tonight.
Based on surface observations last night, the stratus deck built
down, reducing visibilities to a half mile to 3 miles in most
locations. Applying a persistence forecast along with supporting
model soundings brings the same expectation tonight into Friday
morning for areas north of Highway 60 to see some patchy light
fog. Widespread dense fog is not expected, though some areas may
drop below a half mile as the HREF depicts a 40-60% chance for
less than a half mile visibility around the Rolla/Salem areas.

In areas south of the boundary, lows will stay a bit warmer in
the upper 30s to middle 40s.


20-40% chance of spotty light rain south of Highway 60:

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough currently bringing heavy rain
across the west coast will quickly traverse the Rocky
Mountains, become more compact, then skirt through the ArkLaTex
region through the duration of Friday and Friday night. As this
occurs, a surface low pressure system will develop and move
along with it through the ArkLaTex region. Lift on the northern
edge of the low could bring some very light rain to areas near
the Missouri-Arkansas border between 6 AM and 4 PM Friday
(40-60% chance). Any rain will be light and result in less than
a tenth of an inch in most areas.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures through next week:

Following the compact shortwave passage, a brief cooldown will
occur Saturday with highs in the 40s. This will not last long,
though, as the longwave pattern continues to consist of
northwesterly flow with a ridge slowly inching eastward into
our area. This will return southerly flow, allowing temperatures
to warm once again to above normal. The ridge will also keep
precipitation chances low through at least Wednesday.

NBM spreads are confident in highs to begin in the middle 40s to
middle 50s Sunday, warming to the lower to middle 60s Monday
through at least Wednesday. Lows during this period will also
warm from the middle 20s to lower 30s Saturday night into the
lower to middle 40s Sunday night through Wednesday night.

The warmest day of the stretch appears to be Tuesday as the
ridge axis moves overhead and warm air advection maximizes. This
is corroborated by ensemble data. The Extreme Forecast Index for
maximum temperatures is highest for the Ozarks Tuesday with
values at 0.7-0.9 and a shift of the tail signaling potentially
higher temperatures than the mid-60s. Indeed, the 75th
percentile NBM is 70 F, with a 30-60% chance of >70 F along and
south of Highway 60.


A pattern change brings the next chance of rain late next week:

After Wednesday, global ensemble clusters are in decent
agreement with a longwave pattern change that may persist for at
least a few days. All clusters depict the flow aloft becoming
southwesterly over the area with trough over the western CONUS.
This type of pattern generally allows moisture advection and
lift that could result in multiple days of rain chances
depending on the shortwaves that move through. While the
longwave pattern is in good agreement, clusters still reveal
varying differences in the progression of these shortwaves which
is resulting in some uncertainty in exact timing and location of
rain chances. Therefore, only 30-40% chances exist across the
area Wednesday night and Thursday.

The CPC does have us in a 50-60% chance of above normal
precipitation for January 7th through 15th due to the depiction
of this pattern.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the entire TAF
period at SGF and BBG with only increasing high cloud cover and
variable light winds through the period. With a frontal boundary
stretched across central Missouri, there is a very low 5-15%
chance for low clouds to enter SGF and JLN between 12-17Z. There
is much higher confidence for these low clouds to stay north of
the area.

A low pressure system will pass through Arkansas Friday morning,
which will bring a 30-50% chance for light rain and associated
low-level clouds at BBG between 14-18Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price