101
FXUS63 KSGF 041107
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry with a slow warming trend this week.

- Temperatures returning to above normal values by Thursday into
  next weekend. No heat headlines expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

An upper level shortwave has developed across the eastern
Plains/Midwest beneath the larger upper level ridge across southern
Canada. There is enough moisture that the weak forcing has managed
to kick off a few showers across eastern Kansas and up near Kansas
City, where a more localized surface low has formed. This activity
is so light and sparse that CAMs aren`t even picking up on it, and
it is not expected to persist across the area in any meaningful way.
It has produced no lightning and hardly any precip accumulation.
This activity will further diminish by sunrise.

Otherwise, Monday looks like a nice day with highs a tad warmer than
yesterday but still several degrees below normal, in the mid to low
80s. Clouds will filter through with the passage of the shortwave,
though winds will stay very light. Lows tonight will be in the mid-
60s, below normal once again.

Tuesday really starts to reflect the warming trend that will
dominate the rest of the forecast period. Deep high pressure begins
to push in from the southwest, bringing height rises and above
normal heat once again. Tuesday will be right around normal, with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Skies will be clearer and
overnight lows will be warmer, in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Temperatures steadily rise Wednesday through Saturday as the high
pressure continues to move into the area. By Thursday, Heat Index
values hover right around 100 in some areas, especially west of Hwy
65. While the heat will be a few degrees above normal, it won`t be
hot enough to warrant any heat headlines.

Precipitation chances during this period remain below 10% with the
influence of the ridge. Longer range models are depicting a frontal
passage by the end of next week that may bring precipitation and
possibly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Very light surface winds
remaining below 5 kts, though varying in direction. Light
showers remain in eastern Kansas but are not expected to impact
TAF sites (or really much at all). Mid- to high-level clouds
from 15 to 25 kft will filter through during the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson