551
FXUS63 KSGF 120709
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
209 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for
  severe thunderstorms Saturday evening and night. Damaging
  winds will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief
  tornadoes as secondary hazards.

- Widespread rainfall (possibly heavy) Saturday into Sunday will
  also pose a risk for flooding given recent rains, elevated
  streamflows, and saturated soils.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A closed upper-level cyclone was located over Canada with a
cold front extending to the south through the Midwest into
southwest Missouri. This front will continue to push southeast
into Arkansas early this morning as the associated shortwave
pivots northeast and the upper-level flow becomes more zonal.

Cool and Dry through the Afternoon:

Cooler temperatures and drier dew points will filter into the
area behind the front today. Temperatures will be more
seasonable with highs in the low 80s, and skies will remain
mostly clear.

Low-confidence Showers and Storms Tonight:

The cold front that passed through this morning will lift north
during the evening into tonight, and some models initiate
convection along the boundary. Furthermore, a weak shortwave
will transit the zonal flow through Kansas, with some indication
of an MCV developing somewhere across Missouri late tonight
into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Flooding and Severe Thunderstorm Potential Saturday into Sunday:

An MCV may be ongoing in southwest/central Missouri Saturday
morning, bringing chances for showers and perhaps a few rumbles
of thunder. Models often struggle with handling these types of
systems at any time range, but this is especially true more than
24 hours out. If this MCV persists into the afternoon, enough
destabilization could occur for a severe thunderstorm threat to
develop in the afternoon, but confidence is low in this
potential being realized at this point.

The greater severe risk will arrive with a digging shortwave
trough and attendant cold front Saturday evening and night.
This will be especially true if the morning MCV dissipates early
(or misses the CWA entirely), and more significant
heating/recovery can occur during the afternoon. Global models
depict a zone of abundant moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates,
and high instability coinciding across eastern Kansas and
northern Missouri in the afternoon, supporting robust updrafts
capable of producing severe weather. As the trough pivots, the
front will sink southeast, and this activity will push into
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri by Saturday evening,
likely forming into an MCS. The most significant hazard is
expected to be damaging straight line winds; in fact, SPC
highlights a hatched Cig 1 wind risk generally for areas along
and north of the I-44 corridor with the potential for gusts of
70 to 80 mph. Hail to the size of quarters and brief tornadoes
are likely to be secondary hazards with moderate instability and
marginal low- level shear. A severe risk also exists south of
the interstate, but greater uncertainty there precludes the
higher- impact wind risk.

Flooding will be another hazard worth watching Saturday into
Sunday. See the Hydrology section below for greater details on
antecedent conditions and streamflows. From a meteorological
perspective, point forecast soundings depict saturated profiles
with PWATs above the 95th percentile of climatology, supporting
high, efficient rainfall rates. Given the moist antecedent
conditions and the likelihood for widespread heavy rainfall,
flash flooding will be a concern. From a timing perspective, the
greatest risk will be from 7pm Saturday to 7am Sunday. WPC has
maintained its Slight Risk across the entire CWA.

NBM Rainfall Probability of Exceedance Saturday through Sunday:

Prob >1 inch: 50% to 85%
Prob >2 inch: 20% to 70%
Prob >3 inch: 0% to 50%
Prob >4 inch: 0% to 25%

The highest probabilities are currently across far western MO
and eastern KS.

Next Week:

Much cooler temperatures arrive on Monday, with NBM percentile
data supporting afternoon highs around 10 degrees below the
climatological average. Temperatures begin to rise again,
however, amidst mid-level height rises and warm air advection.
Precipitation chances remain less than 20% through Tuesday
afternoon, whereafter some low to medium chances (20%-50%)
return Tuesday night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A few scattered storms have lingered behind a cold front early
in the TAF period, but will continue to diminish in coverage and
intensity. Beyond any of these low shower and thunderstorm
chances, VFR conditions will prevail. Northerly winds will
shift to the east after 12Z and to the southeast after 00Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Many areas across western Missouri and southeast Kansas have
received over 2" of rainfall and localized areas received over
6" of rain in the past 7 days. This rainfall has helped lead to
saturated soils across portions of the region. FFG ranges from
1.5"-2.5" (hourly) to 2"-3" (3 hourly) across much of the area.
Streamflows are currently running above normal to much above
normal especially across southeast KS and western MO. With the
heaviest rains still a few days out current river forecasts
won`t be reflecting the expected rainfall this weekend until we
get closer to the event. However, longer range HEFS models are
showing the potential for some river locations to go back into
Action and Flood stage particularly across our western counties
and southeast Kansas. With recent heavy rains and saturated
soils if additional expected rainfall amounts materialize, flash
flooding and river flooding may develop this weekend. Keep
updated with the latest river forecasts as we approach this
event.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio
HYDROLOGY...Grout