603
FXUS63 KSGF 250757
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
157 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will continue to move through the region through
  the evening. Clouds will clear behind it, and highs will top
  out around 50.

- Cold tonight with lows into the mid-20s.

- Precipitation potential for Wednesday into Thursday continues
  to decrease.

- Much colder temperatures from Thanksgiving through the
  weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

A cold front is currently traversing southern Missouri, having made
it to roughly the I-44 corridor by 1 a.m. With the lack of moisture
and pretty meager lift, the front has not produced any precipitation
so far. Chances are better the farther southeast it gets, but even
then, chances in our CWA are less than 15%. Temperatures will start
to drop behind the front, and we`ll see our coldest temperatures for
the night right around sunrise.

It`ll take most of the day for the front to reach our far southwest,
so they will be the warmest today with highs still in the 60s. For
the rest of us, we`ll be in the high 40s and low 50s. We`ll have a
chilly wind out of the NNW today, gusting up to 20-25 mph in
Springfield and areas west. The day will start cloudy before skies
begin to clear out behind the front later this afternoon, bringing
clear skies overnight. Coupled with calm winds, this will allow for
low temperatures tonight well into the mid-20s.

The whole CWA will return to near-normal high temperatures on
Tuesday, from around 50 in most areas to the mid-50s in the far
southwest along the border with Oklahoma/Arkansas. We`ll get a hint
of warm air advection and clear skies for most of the day thanks to
surface high pressure sliding through. Cloud cover will start
building in from the north overnight, though, as low pressure
deepens to the southwest and begins to stream in moisture. The
clouds and temporary WAA will leave Tuesday night lows in the mid to
high 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Wednesday morning, that low pressure system ends up becoming a
cutoff mid-level low in the trough of a much larger, deeper system
in southeastern Canada. As it passes over, upper-level support
begins to move precipitation potential into the area from the north,
though this potential has decreased in recent model runs. The best
chances are in the north and east throughout the day Wednesday,
though they top out at 25-35%. Accumulations now look to be only a
few hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an inch at a few locations in
the northeast. Temperatures dropping below freezing at the tail end
of the precipitation potential (early Thursday morning) may allow
for a snowflake or two to mix in with the rain, but that is even
less likely than the already meager precipitation chances.

We`ll switch back to northerly flow as the system moves off, and
lows Wednesday night will be back around normal, in the high 20s to
low 30s. However, strong CAA will prevent much daytime warming
Thursday, and highs will top out around 40 (~10 degrees below
normal). Lows Thanksgiving night will be around 20.

This CAA/NNWly flow continues through the remainder of the period,
keeping temperatures below normal through at least the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A cold front is moving through the area tonight, which will
result in a wind switch and also MVFR ceilings later tonight
into Monday. Some patchy drizzle may also be possible, but
probabilities are too low to include in the TAFs right now.
Expect clearing skies from west to east Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Titus