443
FXUS63 KSGF 071839
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
139 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sub-freezing temperatures are expected again tonight. A Freeze
  Warning is in effect from 11 PM tonight through 9 AM Tuesday
  morning.

- Warming back into the 70s by the middle to end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

An upper level trough is currently extending from northeast Canada
down into Mexico, with an upper level shortwave embedded within this
trough located just east of the Ozarks. Upper level ridging is
building over the region, bringing northwesterly flow aloft and
surface high pressure to the region. Surface low pressure over the
Great Lakes region is progged to push eastward through today,
dropping a weak, dry cold front south through our forecast area
today and tonight. As a result, another chilly night is in
store, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, with the
higher end of that range (low to mid 30s) towards the MO/AR
border. With temperatures below freezing, mostly clear skies,
and light winds, conditions are favorable for widespread
frost/freeze to occur on sensitive vegetation. A Freeze Warning
is in effect for the entire area from 11 PM tonight until 9AM
Tuesday morning.

The upper level ridge continues building over the region on Tuesday,
with surface winds shifting out of the south. As a result, warm air
will begin advecting into the region, bringing afternoon highs in
the upper 50s (eastern Ozarks) to mid 60s (increasing further west
of Hwy 65). With the high pressure remaining in place at the
surface, conditions will remain dry through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

On Wednesday, an upper level shortwave is progged to begin tracking
from the northern Plains towards the Ohio Valley. An associated
surface low is progged to push from the Central Plains towards the
Great Lakes region, lifting a warm front through the area Wednesday
morning. With further warm air advecting into the Ozarks, afternoon
highs will climb into the low to mid 70s for much of the area.

Additionally, the surface low will drag an associated cold front
through the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing
low end shower and thunderstorm chances (15-25%) primarily
northeast of I-44, increasing towards central Missouri. As the
shortwave energy continues pushing through our area Thursday
morning/afternoon, additional shower/thunderstorm chances
(30-45%) exist, primarily for areas northeast of Hwy 60. Current
NBM probabilities of 24-hour precipitation only show a 20-40%
chance of these areas seeing >0.10" of rainfall, with only a
10-20% chance of >0.20", so any rain will be fairly light.

Once this shortwave pushes east of the area, another upper level
ridge will begin to build over the region, raising mid-level heights
and returning surface high pressure. A warm front will lift through
the area this weekend, further advecting warm air into the area. As
a result, temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s
Saturday, and into the mid to upper 70s Sunday and Monday (and
potentially near the 80s by early next week).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the entire TAF period as
surface high pressure is over the region. Northwesterly surface
winds will gust up to just below 20kts, primarily at SGF this
afternoon before diminishing tonight. Winds will become light
and northeasterly tonight before becoming southerly Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto