540
FXUS63 KSGF 041945
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
145 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localize areas of elevated fire weather conditions linger
  through the remainder of the afternoon along the Interstate 49
  corridor. Expect southerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph and
  minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent.

- Temperatures continue to be 5 to 10+ degrees above average
  through Saturday. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

- Low rain chances (10-30%) Thursday night into Friday morning.
  Highest chances across central into south central MO.

- Increasing confidence in a frontal passage ushering in colder
  air for Sunday and Monday. Highs in the 40s and lows in the
  20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

This Afternoon-Tonight:
Zonal to weak ridging continues to persist across the central
CONUS, with surface high pressure to the south and east. This
has kept the area warm and dry. Highs this afternoon have
reached into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Additionally, strong
return flow with a tightening pressure gradient has supported
gusty southerly winds. Observations depict wind gusts of 25 to
35 mph (west of Highway 65) this afternoon, tapering off into
this evening. The combination of gusty winds and dry air
(relative humidity values around 35 to 40%) have supported some
localized areas of elevated fire conditions. This is generally
confined to the Interstate 49 corridor, or southeast KS into
southwest MO.

For tonight, lows fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The
strongest radiational cooling will occur across the Eastern
Ozarks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Wednesday-Saturday:
As we progress into mid-week, the weather pattern remains rather
benign with above average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions. Above average temperatures in the upper 60s to lower
70s is supported by 850mb temperatures around 12 to 14 C.
Additionally, confidence remains high in above average
temperatures given the NBM interquartile spread remaining less
than 5 degrees. This is anywhere from 5 to 10+ degrees above
average for early November.

Meanwhile, mostly dry conditions will accompany this pattern
outside of low rain chances (10-30%) Thursday night into Friday
morning with a weak shortwave and frontal passage. This will be
associated with a surface low displaced across the Great Lakes
region, with forcing and moisture remaining weak across the
area. NBM probabilities suggest the best chances remaining
across central into south central MO. Probabilities of > 0.10
inch of rain are only 15 to 25%. Any thunderstorm potential
remains low, at around 10%. If better moisture is able to advect
ahead of the front, we could see an uptick in PoPs and thunder
chances. This remains a low confidence scenario at this time.

Sunday-Monday:
By late this weekend, ensemble guidance is coming into better
agreement on a digging trough across the central CONUS. While
there is still some uncertainty in the exact magnitude and
placement of the trough, the trend supports a strong shot of
colder air. NBM interquartile spreads remain around 5 to 10
degrees, yet the entire spread are below average temperatures.
The current forecast suggests highs in the lower to middle 40s
behind the frontal passage, which is above the 50th percentile.
This would indicate high confidence for cold temperatures on
Sunday and Monday, featuring overnight lows in the 20s. It will
likely even feel a bit colder, when you add in a brisk
northwest wind. No precipitation is expected with this shot of
colder air. This is expected to be short- lived, as the pattern
beyond day 7 depicts a building ridge into the region with
southerly flow returning. CPC 8 to 14 day outlook favors above
average temperatures through mid-November.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Southerly winds through this afternoon, sustained at 10 to 15
knots, with wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Winds gradually
dissipate into the evening. LLWS will be present through the
overnight, at 40 to 45 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez