977
FXUS63 KSGF 051032
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
532 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Sunday due
  to several consecutive days of Heat Index values around 105
  degrees or greater for much of the area. Widespread heat
  impacts are expected to continue through the holiday weekend.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing
  fire danger. There is a low chance (20% or less) for scattered
  showers and thunderstorms both this afternoon/evening and
  again Sunday afternoon/evening. However many locations will
  remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a strong 594dm high over the area however
the center of the ridge was retrograding. The 00z KSGF sounding
measured a PW value of 1.79in which indicates that moisture
levels have increased aloft. It remains very warm again
overnight with temps staying in the 70s to around 80 with mostly
clear skies.

Hot Temps Today with a few afternoon showers/storms: The slight
westward movement of the ridge along with an increase in mid
level moisture will allow for isolated to scattered
showers/storms to develop during peak heating from mid afternoon
into the evening hours. A look at the latest HREF reflectivity
paintball plots shows the highest potential east of Highway 65.
Weak theta E diffs and lower moisture above 500mb should limit
the strength of any storms that develop. We have kept rain
chances generally at or below 20 percent due to the limited
coverage. Many places will stay dry however those outdoors
should always keep an eye to the sky.

It will be hot again as 850mb temps remain around 23-25C. Increased
cumulus clouds could allow for some locations to be a degree or
two cooler this afternoon however highs in the upper 90s to
lower 100s will be common with heat indicies around 105.
Springfield has a chance to tie or break their record high of
99 degrees today. Southeast Kansas, Osage Beach, Fort Leonard
Wood and Branson all hit 105 degree heat indices yesterday and
would expect similar conditions today. The Extreme Heat Warning
remains in effect and those sensitive to the heat will need to
take the appropriate precautions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Hot Sunday with scattered showers/storms: A backdoor front will
enter the region on Sunday. This should provide a stronger
source of lift for afternoon and evening pop up showers and
storms. There is also a signal for the potential for a few
stronger pulse thunderstorms as a narrow corridor of 2000 j/kg
of ML CAPE will exist with higher mid level moisture and higher
theta E Diffs. The Ozarks Pulse Thunderstorm Index has the
highest signal for storms along and west of Highway 65 and will
likely be dependent on the frontal location. Currently precip
chances are around 20% however if trends continue these may need
to be increased. Those not in the clouds will experience
another scorcher with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s and
the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for Sunday.

Hot Conditions Continue through mid week/Increasing Fire
Danger: Ensembles continue to suggest that the mid level ridge
will remain very close to the area with the center perhaps
moving back over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This would
allow for the continuation of highs in the upper 90s to lower
100s however the eastern ozarks could see slightly lower temps
on Monday. Record highs are in the upper 90s for most locations
Tuesday onward and they will be challenged. We will have to make
a determination on the need to extend the Extreme Heat Warning
for portions of the area past Sunday. Currently highest
confidence to extend would be west of Highway 65. Latest NBM
guidance is showing slightly higher wind gusts Tuesday and
Wednesday (generally 15-20mph). This could allow for even
further drying out of fuels and increasing fire spread
potential and we will monitor this closely.

Rain Chances Late Week: Ensemble guidance then diverges Thursday
into Friday as there is an indication that the ridge may
retrograde back towards the Rockies which would allow for a
front to drop into the area and increase rain chances. While
currently rain chances are in the 20-40% range Thursday and
Friday, additional updates/changes to these numbers are likely
given this pattern. The NBM temperature data shows larger
spreads as well which indicates an uncertain late week pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. There is a 20 percent chance of isolated showers and
storms this afternoon into the early evening hours however
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF sites at
this time. Winds will start out southerly however the direction
will become quite variable during the day. A slight east to
east/southeast component should develop by afternoon. Wind
speeds will generally be less than 10kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026


Record High Temperatures:

September 5:
KSGF: 99/1998
KJLN: 103/1998
KUNO: 101/1954

September 6:
KSGF: 100/1960
KJLN: 101/1954
KUNO: 101/1990

September 7:
KJLN: 101/1998

September 8:
KSGF: 98/1960
KJLN: 98/1955
KVIH: 100/1901
KUNO: 99/1990

September 9:
KSGF: 98/1939
KJLN: 100/1947
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 99/1980

September 10:
KSGF: 96/1984
KJLN: 96/2000
KUNO: 96/1953

September 11:
KSGF: 96/2000
KJLN: 100/2000


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 5:
KSGF: 76/1998

September 6:
KSGF: 76/1925

September 7:
KSGF: 77/1899

September 8:
KSGF: 76/1925

September 9:
KSGF: 75/1939

September 10:
KSGF: 74/1938

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield