533
FXUS63 KSGF 111122
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms for areas along and
  north of I-44 on Tuesday evening. Main threat will be quarter
  sized hail, 60 mph damaging winds, and a low-end tornado
  threat that covers all of SE KS, areas as far south as Jasper
  co, and as far east as Stockton Lake.

- Well above normal temperature are expected late week into next
  weekend with highs in the 80s late week into next weekend.

- There`s a 20-40% chance for thunderstorms across the entire
  area intermittently from Friday through Sunday. If you have
  outdoor plans next weekend, be sure to keep up with the latest
  forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

High pressure settles in for the next couple of days. Today
will be a pleasant and sunny day with light winds and highs in
the mid 70s. Tonight will feature clear skies and lows in the
50s. Southwesterly flow returns on Tuesday and moisture begins
to return to the area. Skies will be sunny with high temperatures
in the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A cold front is forecast to move through Tuesday evening into
Wednesday and will bring us our next chance for shower and
thunderstorms. SPC currently has areas along and north of I-44
in a Marginal risk (1/4) for severe weather. Those areas along
and north of I-44 are forecast to have the better moisture with
dewpoints in the 50s and the best set up for severe weather.
Though, there is some uncertainty as far as instability and how
the low-level convergence plays out ahead of the front. Right
now, all hazards are possible especially with any supercells
that develop near the front.

Mid- level lapse rates rates will be near 7.5-8 C/km over SE
KS/SW MO with 0-6 km bulk shear at 45-55 kts. Models differ on
the MLCAPE values a bit, but there could be anywhere between
700-1500 J/kg. Large hail parameter shows the highest values
over SE KS/SW MO in the 5-6 range which would equate to ping
pong to golf ball sized hail. There`s also a tornado outlook
that encompasses all of our SE KS counties and goes as far
south as Jasper co and as far east as Stockton Lake. The 0-1 km
helicity (120-150 m2/s2) is best over those areas as well. As
the front pushes further southeast, severe weather may still
occur, but the ingredients don`t line up as well as they do over
SE KS/SW MO. That area could be upgraded to a higher risk due
to the tornado threat as we get closer to the event, we`ll just
have to wait and see. Otherwise, areas under the Marginal risk
should monitor the forecast over the next couple of days.

The cold front will bring down our dewpoints and flip our winds
out of the northeast, but it won`t really impact our temperatures.
Highs on Wednesday will still be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Winds turn southerly by Thursday and dewpoints start to
increase for the end of the week. Highs will creep into the
mid 80s by Friday and dewpoints reach the mid 60s as well. This
will make it feel hot and humid for the end of the week into
next weekend. There are also a few chances for rain this
weekend as a surface low begins to slowly work its way towards
us, traversing over the Southern Plains. Right now, there`s a
20-40% chance for rain across the entire area intermittently
from Friday through Sunday. Also should note, if the clouds are
thick enough with those rain chances, we may be a couple of
degrees cooler than forecasted this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR through the period with variable winds through today and
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria