479
FXUS63 KSGF 172338
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
638 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather this afternoon/evening.
  Main threats are damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy
  rainfall.

- Non-severe thunderstorms on Friday mainly east of I-49. A 15%
  chance for pop-up thunderstorms over the far east this
  weekend. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall are likely where
  storms do form.

- Temperatures gradually increase into the low to mid 90s
  through the weekend, with maximum heat index values up to
  100-105 degrees. By the middle of next week, high temperatures
  in the mid to upper 90s are possible, along with maximum heat
  index values up to around 100-110 degrees. Heat headlines may
  be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Showers and thunderstorms pushed in from the northwest earlier this
morning, bringing sub-severe thunderstorms and periods of heavy
rainfall to the area. Localized areas along/north of the I-44
corridor saw rainfall rates of approximately 1-1.5 inches/hour, with
some minor pooling reported on roadways. As these storms
currently continue pushing towards Highway 63, lightning
activity continues to diminish, with Satellite IR imagery
depicting warming cloud tops.

Redevelopment is then expected later this afternoon as a
relatively stationary boundary slightly pushes south. SPC
continues to highlight the area in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for
severe thunderstorms driven primarily by the chance for
downburst winds up to 60 mph. CAMs continue to highlight the
better chances of these storms occurring south of I-44 where
models depict 2000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30kts of bulk
shear. Can`t fully rule out hail up to 1 inch where the stronger
shear is, however this would be a lesser risk.

Otherwise, the precipitation and cloud cover have kept temperatures
relatively cooler, with afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
70s so far where the heavier rainfall occurred (north of I-44)
and in the low to mid 80s closer to the MO/AR border (as of 1
PM). Temps are expected to climb a few more degrees over the
next few hours, with widespread highs ranging in the 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s (eastern Ozarks) to low
70s (elsewhere).

Tomorrow will once again yield chances (30-60%) for isolated to
scattered non-severe showers and thunderstorms during the
morning and afternoon hours. Afternoon highs will climb into the
upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices reaching the low 100s
in some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

As we head into the weekend, precipitation chances will drop off,
with heat becoming the primary concern as an upper level ridge and
surface high pressure builds over the region. The NBM interquartile
spread shows only a 3-4 degree difference between the 25th and 75th
percentiles, leading to high confidence in daily afternoon highs in
the 90s with a warming trend through next week. Heat index values
are expected to range between 100-105 degrees (and locally higher)
this weekend through early next week, and between 100-110 degrees
towards the end of next week. The experimental HeatRisk index
depicts much of the area seeing Moderate to Major risks for heat-
related impacts, with pockets of Extreme risk by midweek. As
confidence continues to grow and we get a little closer to this
timeframe, heat headlines may be needed.

Looking ahead to the end of July, the CPC 8-14 Day Outlook continues
to highlight likely chances (70-80%) for above normal temperatures
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

W-E band of showers and a few thunderstorms has developed
along/just south of I-44 with instability gradient. Anticipate
activity to wane between 02-03z with the loss of heating.
Renewed growth of convection is then possible later tonight into
early Friday morning...and again toward mid afternoon.

Some signals for the development of 3-5SM BR after midnight
however confidence is not high enough to be included in the TAFs
at this time.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Runnels