711
FXUS63 KSGF 140943
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
443 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will occur across portions of the area at times
  early this morning.

- Temperatures warm to above normal for the remainder of the
  work week.

- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday into Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Some patchy areas of fog are occurring across portions of the
area early this morning, with most locations only seeing light
fog. There are some localized areas where fog is reducing
visibilities to less than a mile at times mainly across
portions of central Missouri. This will continue through the
early morning hours but widespread dense fog is not expected at
this time. The fog should dissipate by the mid morning hours
if not by sunrise across much of the area. Mid level clouds are
moving east across the area and will remain over much of the
area this morning then should start to clear this afternoon.

An upper level ridge of high pressure is building back over the
region and will be over the area the rest of the work week.
Highs will warm back into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon
and also again on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows this morning
will remain in the lower 60s with lows tonight and tomorrow
night cooling into the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Winds will
remain light today and Wednesday as highs pressure will be over
the area. Winds will then increase slightly on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

An upper level low is currently over the west coast early this
morning. The low will slowly move northeast this week, remaining
west of the area as the upper level ridge remains over the
region through Friday. On Friday the upper level low will move
northeast across the plains and will start to push the ridge
that will be over the region this week off to the east. Highs
will again warm into lower to middle 80s on Friday as the ridge
and warmer air mass remains in place. Southwesterly winds will
increase some on Friday ahead of the system to the west. Winds
could gusts to 20 to 30 mph at times on Friday.

The upper level trough and an associated cold front will move
northeast across the plain Friday and across the region on
Saturday. Moisture will increase from the south ahead of the
trough bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms to
the area as early as Friday night into Saturday evening. Models
are in good agreement that an upper level trough and cold front
will move through region this weekend, but there area still
difference in the exact timing and structure of the low between
the ensemble model members.

One solution the models are depicting, is a southern upper
level low and a northern upper level low develop with the
system. The upper level low will move northeast with the
southern low moving further south resulting in the trough
extending from the southwest to the northeast. This would result
in the front moving south through the area with a faster timing
Friday night into Saturday. The faster frontal passage and the
southern upper level low reaming further to the south would
result in the better moisture and instability remaining south of
the area. This solution would still bring showers and some
embedded storms to the area with the front, but the better
severe potential would be south of the area.

Another solution with the models, is the upper level lows remain
phase together into one with the trough and cold front moving
more from north to south as they move across the region. This
solution is showing a slower frontal passage occurring later in
the day on Saturday. This would allow better moisture return
and instability to move further north into the area bringing the
potential for some strong to severe storms to much of the area
on Saturday. There are other solution that are in between these
two.

Overall, this system will bring shower and thunderstorm chances
to the area as early as late Friday with shower and storm
chances lingering into Saturday evening and night as a cold
front moves through the region. There is the potential for some
severe storms across portions of the area, but there is a
scenario that the severe risk remains south of the area.
Uncertainty remains on the exact details due to the timing and
track differences of the upper level trough between the model
members.

Cooler conditions will occur behind the front on Sunday with
highs in the 70s and possibly only warming into the 60s across
portions of the area on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Some patchy fog is occurring across portions of the area early
this morning, especially across portions of central Missouri.
Overall the fog is not expected to impact the TAF sites but
there is a low chance for a very brief period of MVFR
visibilities occurring early in the TAF period around sunrise.
Mid level clouds will remain over the area this morning,
clearing this afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable
through tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise