103
FXUS63 KSGF 261013
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
513 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continue through at least Tuesday. Daily
  highs in the lower to middle 90s with maximum afternoon heat
  index values around 100 to 108. Heat Advisory remains in
  effect until 7PM Tuesday.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into
  this evening. The main potential hazards will be wind gusts up
  to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and localized heavy rainfall.

- Confidence increasing in cooler temperatures by the end of
  next week. Daily rain chances (20-40%) will occur at times
  during the middle and end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have developed again early this
morning from central Oklahoma into northern Missouri. This
activity is developing as an upper level shortwave trough moves
northeast through the region. Much of this activity should
remain south and north of the area through the early morning
hours but could clip portions of the far northwestern of the
area. This activity will then move off to the northeast this
morning. Lightning and brief locally heavy rainfall will be the
risk with any early morning storms.

The upper level ridge remains over the region with the western
side of the ridge over the area. Highs will again warm into the
lower to middle 90s this afternoon with afternoon/early evening
heat index values in the 100 to 105 range today. The entire
area remains in a Heat Advisory for today through Tuesday.

Instability will increase as the cap weakens across the area
with the heating of the day. There will not be a lot of lift
across the area today as the shortwave tough moves off to the
northeast. It is possible that an outflow boundary from the
current storms to the west and north of the area moves into the
Ozarks and stalls. Any boundary with weak the cap could help
trigger a storm this afternoon into the evening hours. The
overall severe risk is low across the area today but a few of
the stronger storms could be capable of wind gusts up to 50 mph
and frequent lightning. The storms will be slow moving with
locally heavy rainfall possible. There is a low risk for some
localized flooding where multiple storms develop and sit over
one location. These pulse type storms remain possible into the
mid evening hours as storm development may occur with outflow
boundaries moving to the east to northeast.

Overnight uncapped MUCAPE will remain in place across portions
of central Missouri into early Sunday morning. A low level jet
may be able to kick up a few storms but the jet will likely
weaken by the early morning hours. Overall chances for storm
develop overnight is low, and if storms can develop, coverage
will be isolated in nature.

The upper level ridge builds to the west and remains over the
region on Sunday. Highs in the lower to middle 90s with heat
index values in the 100 to 108 range will occur Sunday
afternoon. A few afternoon pulse type storms will again be
possible, mainly along and east of Highway 65 as drier air in
the mid levels of the atmosphere advects east into the area.
Lows will only cool into the middle 70s tonight and Sunday
nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The upper level ridge remains centered over the region early
next week with the heat continuing. Highs will warm into the
middle 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 108 range both
Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances will overall be low both days,
but there could be a low chances for a pop up isolated storm
across portions of central Missouri both Monday and Tuesday
afternoon. The Heat Advisory remains in a affect for the entire
area through 7PM Tuesday.

The upper level ridge then moves back to the west during the
middle to end of next week with the area getting into a
northwest flow upper level pattern allowing a front and slightly
cooler conditions to move into the area. There are still some
timing difference on when this occurs. Until the ridge moves
west of the area the warmer air mass will remain in place so its
quite possible that highs in the middle 90s occur again on
Wednesday. But with the ridge starting to flatten it is also
possible convection starts to move southeast into the area by
Wednesday afternoon allowing for cooler temperatures. Models
then show highs near to slightly below normal Highs in the lower
to middle 80s late next week into next weekend. Normal highs
are in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees for this time of year.
The northwest flow pattern could remain in place into next
weekend and will have to watch for upper level energy moving
through the northwest flow into the area and could generate some
showers and storms at times from Wednesday into next weekend
but will be dependent on exactly where the ridge is located and
the timing and track of any shortwave troughs riding through the
northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon into the early evening hours
today, generally in the 17Z to 2Z timeframe. Coverage in this
activity will not be widespread and confidence in a TAF site
being affected is too low to include any mention of thunder in
the TAFs at this time.

South to southeasterly winds will continue across the area
through the TAF period and could see some gusts up to 15 to
20kts at times this afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise