475
FXUS63 KSGF 221045
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures through Friday with shower and
  thunderstorm chances(40-70%) ahead Thursday night through
  Saturday morning. Localized heavy rainfall is possible across
  portions of the area.

- Heat is expected to return to the region on Sunday into early
  next week. Increasing confidence for highs in the middle 90s
  to near 100, with heat index values around 100 to 110 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Today-Tonight:
A cooler and less humid airmass has gradually settled into the
region this morning. Light northeasterly winds behind the
frontal passage will continue to usher in a drier airmass, as
gleaned by dewpoints only around 60 later this afternoon. This
will make it feel quite different than earlier this week, with
highs topping out in the lower 80s (east) to upper 80s (west).
With the ridge flattening out over the central CONUS, a series
of shortwaves are progged to translate through the flow. The
first of these waves glances portions of area overnight tonight
into Thursday morning. However, moisture return is limited and
will likely inhibit much of any precipitation, with most of the
area remaining dry through tonight. Lows fall into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Thursday-Friday:
Cooler and lower humidity persist through Thursday, with 10-20%
chances for light rain/sprinkles on Thursday morning/afternoon.
As this weak wave passes through the area, another wave is on
the horizon. This next system takes shape Thursday night into
Friday morning, and will feature stronger forcing and better
moisture return. The highest rain chances (40-70%) are currently
depicted across portions of west central into central MO through
Friday morning. An initial analysis suggests that scattered
showers and thunderstorms overspread the area, with the primary
hazards being lightning and localized heavy rainfall. PWATs
upwards of 2+ inches will support efficient rainfall rates, and
any locations that see repeated rounds of thunderstorms may be
subject to localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding. However,
it will be tough to pin down these exact corridors of heavier
amounts until mesoscale features become more apparent. Rain
chances (30-60%) linger through Friday and slowly sink south
into the rest of southern MO. Rain chances gradually diminish
into Saturday morning, though it is worth noting there is still
some uncertainty on the exact timing of the passing shortwaves.

Saturday-Tuesday:
As we progress into the weekend, a strong ridge begins to build
out of the western CONUS. This will support increasing mid-
level heights, and a return of hot and humid conditions. There
will be a bit of gradient from west to east this weekend as a
result of being on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Highs
Saturday are progged to vary from upper 80s/lower 90s (east) to
middle/upper 90s (west). The return of this heat will be
accompanied by minimal rain chances, unless we get into the
eastern edge of ridge runners. For now, rain chances remain less
than 10% late this weekend into early next week. Additionally,
confidence is increasing that the hot temperatures and humidity
build further into early next week. By Sunday into Monday,
portions of southeast KS into southwest MO are progged to see
highs reach upper 90s to around 100+. Meanwhile, heat index
values climb into the 100 to 110 degree range. This may support
the need for heat headlines in subsequent forecast updates this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

High confidence in VFR flight conditions prevailing through much
of the TAF period. Mostly clear skies through this morning
before scattered clouds overspread the area this afternoon and
evening. Northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots, turning more easterly
into Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez