136
FXUS63 KSGF 111903
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
203 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning across portions of southeast KS,
  southwest MO, and into central MO through Friday. Daily heat
  index values around 105. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory is in
  effect for daily heat index values around 100 to 104.

- Mostly dry conditions are now expected through the end of the
  week and weekend.

- Confidence is increasing in the extension of heat headlines
  through the the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

This Afternoon - Tonight:
A ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen and is well-
established across portions of the central CONUS. 850mb
temperatures around 23 to 26 C correlate to surface temperatures
into the middle to upper 90s, with some 100s into southeast KS
and far southwest MO. Similar to previous days, cloud cover has
been minimal with a highly scattered cumulus field. Meanwhile,
dewpoints into the upper 60s to lower 70s support heat index
values ranging from 100 to 105+ degrees. While some mixing has
occurred daily in the afternoon`s, the area has still been
enveloped in extreme heat this week. South- southwest winds
continue to persist in this pattern, with occasional afternoon
wind gusts approach 20 to 25 mph. For tonight, minimal overnight
relief is expected with lows in middle/upper 70s to around 80.
An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect north and west of
Springfield, with a Heat Advisory elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Wednesday - Monday:
As we progress through mid-week, ensemble guidance highlights a
slight dip in the jet stream. The trends over the last few days
remain intact, with PoPs being suppressed north of the area. The
highest chances (10-15%) nudge into portions of central MO on
Wednesday and Thursday, though confidence is low. A closer look
at the latest RRFS, REFS, and HREF suggest an isolated shower or
thunderstorm clipping the area, though the majority of the
guidance keeps it further north.

Otherwise, the storyline remains extreme heat persisting through
late week and this weekend. NBM interquartile spreads on max
high temperatures remain around 2 to 3 degrees in the upper 90s
to near 100. Accompanied by dewpoints around 70, maximum daily
heat index values are forecast to be around around 100 to 105+.
This introduces the question, how extreme is this heat from a
climatological stance. While the area is no stranger to heat
waves in the Summer, the duration of the heat over several days
can compound the impacts. NWS HeatRisk captures this potential
with widespread Major to Extreme heat risk through the upcoming
weekend. This will put a strain on heat sensitives groups. The
heat headlines have been extended through Friday evening at the
moment, with increasing confidence in the need for an
additional extension beyond Friday.

Furthermore, the extreme heat has began to dry out soils across
the area. CPC highlights portions of southeast KS and southern
MO as an area vulnerable to rapid onset drought. This is similar
to "flash" droughts we have seen in past Summer`s, where heat
waves coincidences with minimal rain. Furthermore, CPC depicts
a high risk for hazardous temperatures in the 8 to 14 day
outlook (August 18-24). This further increases confidence in
prolonged heat through mid-August. The remaining uncertainty is
on the extent of heat as we get into early next week as ensemble
guidance suggests another dip in the jet stream and slightly
cooler temperatures. There is a scenario where we see a wide
variance in temperatures from north to south across the area.
Check back for more details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Minimal cloud cover, with south-southwest at 5 to 15
knots, with occasional wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots this
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>092-095>098-102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez