276
FXUS63 KSGF 242328
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur at
  times this evening through Memorial Day (60-90% daily
  chances). Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday
  afternoon with additional rainfall amounts of 1-4 inches and
  localized amounts up to 6 inches.

- Marginal to Slight (1-2 of 5) severe risk this evening and
  tonight, then again Sunday night, especially west of Highway
  65. Main threat is wind and hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The rain that occurred across the region last night into this
morning has pushed well southeast of the area this afternoon.
There is a low chance for an isolated shower and maybe a rumble
of thunder this afternoon into early this evening but most if
not all locations will remain dry. Later this evening, after 8
pm, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across portions of southeastern Kansas and southwestern
Missouri. Elevated instability will develop with up to 2000 to
2500 J/kg of MUCAPE across the area, especially west of Highway
65. Deep layer shear around 30 to 40 kt will also be in place
resulting in the potential for some strong to severe storms
with large hail the main risk. There also could be a localized
damaging wind risk with any line segments that can develop.

Overnight into Sunday morning the low level jet will increase
and lift from warm air advection and and upper level shortwave
will lead to showers and storm chances, likely in a narrow
band. Additional 1 to 2" of rainfall will be possible tonight
into Sunday with localized amounts of 3 to 4" in the localized
band. There will be the potential for flooding within this
band, particularly if the band tracks over the same locations
that saw the heaviest rain last night. A Flood Watch remains in
effect. It`s possible portions of central Missouri does not see
a lot of rain with this round as it appears southeastern Kansas
and southern Missouri will see the most rain from this round.
The rain will move off to the southeast by Sunday afternoon with
much of the afternoon hours remaining dry. There is a low
chance for an isolated shower and storm Sunday afternoon but
most if not all locations are expected to remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Another round of showers and storms will develop and move across
the area at times from Sunday evening through the day on Monday,
and could see some showers linger into the overnight hours.
There could be a few strong storms with hail to the size of half
dollars and gusty winds will be possible across far
southern Missouri Sunday evening and night. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2" will occur with this round of rain with
localized amounts up to 3" Sunday evening into Monday night.
This will continue the flooding risk across the region on top of
the heavy rainfall that occurred last night and the rain
expected tonight into Sunday morning. A Flood Watch remains in
effect through Sunday.

The region then remains in northwest flow the rest of the week
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. There could be some
low rain chances at times as energy moves through the northwest
flow but overall most of the period will likely remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Thunderstorms are expected to begin developing and moving
through the area in the first few hours of the TAF period.
Shower and thunderstorm chances persist through the entire TAF
period, with ceilings and visibilities likely fluctuating many
times as precipitation varies in intensity.

Generally, after the first couple of hours of VFR conditions to
begin the TAF period, MVFR and IFR conditions are expected.
Background wind speeds will be less than 15 kts out of the
southeast, though stronger wind gusts will be coincident with
thunderstorms. Precipitation continues into the next TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Nelson