870
FXUS63 KSGF 242343
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
543 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing clouds tonight with some chances for drizzle.

- Colder air moves in behind a front on Monday. Gusty northwest
  winds behind the front at 20 to 30 mph.

- Rain potential Wednesday into Thanksgiving with much colder
  temperatures to follow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a quick zonal flow across the
southern 2/3 of the CONUS. An upper level jet was streaming from
California into the Rockies which was aiding surface low
development over the central plains. A trough of low pressure
extended from southwest Iowa and into the low over central
Kansas with a cold front slightly north of the trough.
Temperatures were warm across the area for this time of year in
the mid 60s to low 70s as of noon. Dew points have increased
into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Higher dewpoints over the ARLATX
region will continue to advect northward this afternoon with the
gusty southerly winds of 20 to 35 mph.

Tonight - Monday: The front will continue to shift southeast
into the area late tonight which low level moisture continues to
increase. Some stratus will move into the area as the front
moves into the area and should continue behind the front. Not
much moisture above this so any lifting would likely just
produce some scattered areas of drizzle late tonight which would
continue into Monday. This will mainly be over the eastern
portion of the CWA. Chances of measurable precipitation remain
pretty low at 18% or less. Lows tonight will remain pretty mild
with the front just getting into the western CWA by the morning.
Near 40 in the west to the low 50s in the southeast. With the
cloud cover continuing much of the day and cold air advection
behind the front, will likely not see much temperature rise
behind the front as it pushes through the CWA during the day.
Highest temperatures therefore will be in the southeast in the
low to mid 60s with only mid 40s in southeast Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Drier air will push into the area by Monday night and clear out
the low cloud cover. With a clearing sky and a light surface
wind with high pressure pushing into the area, temperatures
should have no issue dipping back below freezing with lows
expected in the mid to upper 20s. The high will drift overhead
on Tuesday with a return to southerly winds on the back side of
the high.  Highs will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Precipitation chances Wednesday into Thursday: Another jet
streak will track east into the southern rockies on Wednesday
which will help to develop a surface low over the southern
plains. Low level moisture will increase Tuesday night into
Wednesday ahead of a midlevel shortwave which will begin to move
into the area Wednesday night. Models do not have a great handle
on precipitation with this system and it does push through
fairly quickly. Best chances of precipitation will be Wednesday
night into Thursday. POPS have come down from previous forecast
(now 15-30%) and QPF`s have also come down from previous
forecast(now about 0.02-0.10"). Temperatures look warm enough
for most of the event for rainfall, though will not rule out a
rain/snow mix on Thursday morning as the colder air begins to
push into the area behind a strong cold front. If any snow were
to be develop, we are not expecting any impacts as surface
ground temperatures will be too warm for any accumulation.

Much colder temperatures on the way behind the front: west-
northwest flow aloft will continue for the remainder of the
period and through next weekend which will continue to
reinforce the colder air across the area. Lows Thanksgiving
night will be in the upper teens to mid 20s with highs on Friday
from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs by next Sunday may only reach
the low to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Cold front roughly along I-35 in Kansas late this afternoon to
move through much of the forecast area between 6-12z shifting
winds to the north. Trajectory of low level moisture advecting
northward ahead of the front to lead to MVFR stratus with some
pockets of IFR from KBBG into the eastern Ozarks. This will also
be the more likely area for drizzle as the front approaches.

While drizzle will ease with the frontal passage...stratus to be
slower to diminish with MVFR ceilings likely to remain into the
afternoon.




&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Runnels