052
FXUS63 KSGF 191905
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
205 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms in extreme SE
  Kansas and portions of Vernon County. Marginal (1 of 5) Risk
  for much of west Missouri. Wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
  to the size of half dollars are the main hazards.

- Continued hot on Friday. Some record highs may be challenged.

- More widespread rain chances over the weekend (30-75%) with
  the highest chances over central Missouri...and additional
  chances through late next week (10-30%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a very complex upper level pattern
over the CONUS. There is a large upper trough over the east
coast, an upper low just off the California coast and another
upper low just north of ND. Meanwhile, a strong jet is diving
southeast into the Pacific northwest. Closer to home, an upper
level ridge axis extended northeast out of Mexico into Missouri
and northeast into Michigan. Closer to the ground, 850mb
temperatures of 18-20 deg C have advected into the area ahead of
a frontal zone which was situated over the central plains. Some
scattered elevated convection was currently developing over
southeast KS into west central MO. Temperatures have risen into
the mid 80s to low 90s over the area with the hottest readings
in southeast KS into far western MO.

For tonight, the evolution of the convection will be tricky with
warm conditions in the mid levels due to the upper ridging.
Enough lifting ahead of the front and instability for scattered
convection ahead of the front. Inverted V forecast soundings
would favor damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. Not a
lot of shear to support tornadic activity over the area, so we
are going with a minor hail risk and wind risk late this
afternoon and evening. Most of the activity should remain
northwest of the I-44 corridor. Very mild conditions are
expected tonight with lows from the mid 60s in the southeast CWA
to the low 70s in the west.

Friday, some lingering convection chances will be possible in
central into south central MO during the morning and clearing
out in the afternoon. 850mb temperatures continue to rise into
the 22-25 degree C range with the ridge axis still in place over
the area. We are expecting hot temperatures in the low 90s in
the east to some upper 90s in the west. Heat index values will
be from the upper 90s to around 104 during the afternoon.

Friday night: The upper low in the southwest U.S. will gradually
shift eastward with a southwest flow developing over the area.
Some upper energy may spread into the area with some low
convection chances (15-25%) Friday night over central Missouri
and southeast Kansas. Lows will continue to be mild ranging from
the upper 60s to mid 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Convection over the weekend: The upper low is expected to shift
into the Rockies on Saturday and the plains on Sunday. As this
occurs, the upper ridge over the area will gradually begin to
flatten out, Pacific moisture will be drawn into the area from
the southwest and Gulf moisture from the south. A frontal
boundary will be slow to move into the area, but eventually does
on Sunday. The bulk of the precipitation is expected from
central Missouri northward and thus we have our highest pops
(75%) on Sunday in our northern CWA.

As we head into the first half of next week, the upper flow
remains rather chaotic with a lot of variance in the heigh
fields which translates to many of the other variables like
temperature and precipitation chances. Because of the
differences in timing and placement of these features, we tend
to get probabilistic rain chances extended longer in time, but
lowered in confidence or probability. This is also causing large
ranges in the 25-75th percentile of probabilistic temperature
profiles in the Monday through Wednesday time frame. For now, we
are remaining close to the NBM deterministic values which bring
temperatures closer to seasonal norms in the 70s for highs and
50s for lows.



&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the 18z TAFS, earlier morning showers/thunderstorms have
faded, with renewed convection developing just west of the CWA
in southeast and east central KS. CAMS are all over the place
with how convection may evolve this afternoon and evening. Have
gone with some thunderstorm chances after 23z at JLN and into
the evening, but have kept out of SGF/BBG for now as the main
activity should remain in the west. Outside of any convection,
we are expected VFR conditions, but could drop into MVFR or
brief IFR with any thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Record High Temperatures (Joplin):


September 20:
99 (1954)       Forecast: 97



Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Springfield):

September 20:
74 (2018) Forecast: 71

September 21:
73 (1931) Forecast: 72

September 22:
70 (2017) Forecast: 70



Record Lowest Precipitation for Month of September:

Springfield: 0.05" (1928)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.04"

Joplin: 0.2" (2013)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.00"

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Camden