364
FXUS63 KSGF 051807
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
107 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front brings rain chances (40-70%) to the area today.
  Rainfall amounts are expected to remain limited to a few
  tenths of an inch.

- Cooler and dry this weekend with highs in the 70s. A warming
  trend returns to the area through early to middle of next week
  with temperatures above normal for early September.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Today-Tonight: Shortwave energy is progged to translate through
the region today as an upper- level trough remains setup across
the Great Lakes region. An associated cold front pushes
southward through the area through this morning, being the focus
for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Rain chances
(40-70%) overspread the area from northwest to southeast with
the frontal passage towards daybreak. This activity will
generally be scattered in nature and work to overcome some dry
air in place. There is remaining uncertainty in just how much
the area sees in the way of any thunderstorms. This is a result
of guidance depicting marginal elevated instability (<250 J/kg).
This remains on the higher end of available instability, thus
limiting our confidence in embedded thunderstorms through today
and tonight. There still remains a handful of CAMs that support
at least a few thunderstorms in southern Missouri, particularly
along and south of Highway 60 through the late afternoon and
evening.In general, most areas remain in the clear of
thunderstorms. Scattered showers linger into tonight, before
dissipating into early Saturday morning.

As for rainfall amounts, we are not expecting any heavy
rainfall given the lack of convective elements and scattered
nature of the activity. Rainfall amounts are expected to
generally remain around a few tenths of an inch. Forecasted
amounts remain minimal with regards to ongoing drought
conditions building across the area over the last month.

Cooler temperatures will accompany this frontal passage today
and widespread clouds/rain chances. A gradient of temperatures
will vary from middle 60s (northwest) to upper 70s (southeast).
The cooler airmass gradually filters into the area tonight, with
lows ranging from upper 40s to lower 50s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

This Weekend: Northwest flows sets up across the central CONUS
this weekend behind the frontal passage. This will generally
support a drier and cooler weekend, with highs in the 70s to
near 80, and lows in the upper 40s to 50s. Even chiller
overnight lows can be expected into both Sunday and Monday
morning`s across the eastern Ozarks, where lows may even
approach lower 40s. This taste of fall appears to be short-lived
as a pattern change is on the horizon into next week.

Next Week: As we progress into early next week, ensemble
guidance continues to highlight a building upper-level ridge
over the region. This will support a warming trend, and a return
of above normal temperatures through mid to late next week. NBM
depicts minimal temperature spreads, with highs progged to
reach into the middle to upper 80s into mid-week. There is even
the potential for highs approaching 90. Meanwhile, minimal rain
chances are expected through next week. This may further
expand/worsen ongoing drought conditions are we progress through
early Fall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Light showers and potentially some thunder is expected primarily
at KSGF and KJLN this afternoon.

This evening, expect increased coverage and intensity of showers
and storms, mainly near and south of KJLN and KSGF, with KBBG
seeing the greatest potential impacts. Look for light to briefly
moderate rain at KSGF and KJLN, along with MVFR ceilings. KBBG
should see moderate to briefly heavy rain and IFR ceilings late
this evening into tonight. Expect improvement at all sites
tonight into Saturday morning (latest at KBBG).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Titus